The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Bengals at Chargers
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Bengals at Chargers, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Sunday Night Football matchup. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Bengals at Chargers
We are back for another edition of the NFL Grind Down. I hope your main slate lineups performed well and you are ready to get after it for this Sunday night Showdown slate. The Bengals are coming off a tough loss against the Ravens last Thursday. They are 4-6 on the season but have enough talent to make a run in the second half of the season. The Chargers have won 3 games in a row and are 6-3 on the season. They might not catch the Chiefs in their division, but they are firmly in the mix for a playoff spot in the AFC.
Key Injuries
Erick All – Out
Zack Moss – Out
Cincinnati Bengals Preview
Joe Burrow has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL this season. He’s coming off a huge game against the Ravens in which he threw for 428 yards and 4 touchdowns. The week before, he threw for 5 touchdowns against the Raiders. He has a much tougher draw this evening, as the Chargers are 2nd in EPA against the pass and 8th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. I like Burrow as an MVP target on FanDuel, but I prefer his pass catchers at CPT on DraftKings.
Let’s look at Cincinnati’s wideout usage in the games where Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins have both been active this season:
Ja’Marr Chase: 96% route percentage, 22% target rate, 33% air yards share
Tee Higgins: 89% route percentage, 27% target rate, 40% air yards share
Andrei Iosivas: 72% route percentage, 9% target rate, 18% air yards share
Mike Gesicki: 48% route percentage, 6% target rate, 7% air yards share
Before we get to Higgins and Chase, let’s talk about Mike Gesicki. In 5 games with Higgins active this season, he has averaged 3 fantasy points. In 5 games without Higgins this season, he has averaged 14.2 fantasy points. Now, some of the boost has to do with Erick All being out as well, but clearly, he takes a hit with Higgins in the lineup. As for Chase and Higgins, they are both strong options on this Showdown slate. It’s not the best matchup though, as the Chargers have allowed the 7th-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. We can expect Andrei Iosivas to be on the field a lot, but his 9% target rate while playing alongside Higgins and Chase is far from ideal.
Despite a difficult matchup against the Ravens last week, Chase Brown turned his 22 touches into 94 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. The Bengals traded for Khalil Herbert last week, but Brown handled 100% of the running back carries in that game. Herbert will likely have a role moving forward, but this isn’t expected to be the split that we saw earlier in the season with Brown and Zack Moss. I have Brown high on my list of priorities at MVP/CPT.
The Bengals don’t have a good defense and are facing a run-first opponent in the Chargers. I will take my chances with a fade of Cincinnati’s defense. Kicking points could be more valuable given the low total in this game. Evan McPherson is a strong value play in all formats.
NOTE: Used our new and improved SimLabs tool yet? Check out the video below by Dan Back, which will walk you through the premier tool in the industry. Get access to SimLabs and much more with an NFL Premium subscription!
Los Angeles Chargers Preview
Outside of a few Dobbins lineups, I’ve had very little exposure to the Chargers this season. They have had one of the highest rush rates in the NFL this season, but Justin Herbert has really found his groove over the last 3 games. He has topped 19 fantasy points in each of those outings and now draws a home matchup against the Bengals, who are 26th in EPA against the pass and 28th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. It’s a good spot for Herbert and the passing game, especially if they find themselves down early.
Let’s take a look at the wideout usage in the games with Quentin Johnston active:
Ladd McConkey: 79% route percentage, 23% target rate, 32% air yards share
Quentin Johnston: 71% route percentage, 16% target rate, 25% air yards share
Josh Palmer: 67% route percentage, 12% target rate, 21% air yards share
Will Dissly: 42% route percentage, 13% target rate, 5% air yards share
I’ll start by saying this is an elite matchup for all of the pass catchers. The Bengals are a bottom-10 pass defense. They have been average at defending tight ends and 29th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. Will Dissly has seen his role grow each week. He has seen 27 targets over the last 4 games alone. The matchup is great and his price is still too cheap. He feels like good chalk on this Showdown slate. The direct pivot is Hayden Hurst, who is only $1,600 on DraftKings.
Ladd McConkey leads the team in target share and air yards share and is the top wide receiver target this evening. However, Quentin Johnston has home run type of upside and could easily get loose against this shaky secondary. Josh Palmer is sneaky as well. While he’s technically the WR3, he has racked up 21% of the team’s air yards when all of their receivers have been on the field together. My plan is to be overweight on the Chargers’ passing attack.
Gus Edwards didn’t play a ton of snaps in his first week back from injury, but he got a lot of carries when he was on the field. He’s going to cut into the workload of J.K. Dobbins, which makes this a difficult spot to predict. The matchup is certainly enticing, as the Bengals are 28th in EPA against the run. If the Chargers can build a lead, there’s a chance they could run the ball 25-30 times in this game. A unique roster construction would be to play both Edwards and Dobbins.
The Chargers D/ST has played well this season and is facing an offensive line that isn’t the best at pass blocking. I don’t mind taking a shot on the defense here, especially if you are interested in targeting Dobbins and/or Edwards. Kicker Cameron Dicker is one of my favorite plays on the slate.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
I don’t have any rules that I plan to make in LineupHQ on this slate, but I do have some thoughts on roster construction. My main strategy is to be overweight on Chase Brown, overweight on the Chargers’ passing attack, and overweight on the kickers. I will also build a lineup that has both of the Chargers running backs, hoping they can dominate the game in the trenches and score all of their touchdowns on the ground.
Bengals at Chargers DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | CIN | QB | 21.20 | $10,600 | $15,900 | 2.00 | $15,000 | 1.41 |
| Ja’Marr Chase | CIN | WR | 19.38 | $12,000 | $18,000 | 1.62 | $16,500 | 1.17 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | QB | 19.08 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 2.03 | $14,000 | 1.36 |
| Tee Higgins | CIN | WR | 18.09 | $8,600 | $12,900 | 2.10 | $12,000 | 1.51 |
| Chase Brown | CIN | RB | 17.68 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 1.84 | $11,500 | 1.54 |
| Ladd McConkey | LAC | WR | 14.59 | $8,200 | $12,300 | 1.78 | $11,000 | 1.33 |
| J.K. Dobbins | LAC | RB | 14.34 | $10,000 | $15,000 | 1.43 | $13,000 | 1.10 |
| Will Dissly | LAC | TE | 11.05 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 2.13 | $7,500 | 1.47 |
| Quentin Johnston | LAC | WR | 10.24 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 1.46 | $10,000 | 1.02 |
| Mike Gesicki | CIN | TE | 8.26 | $6,200 | $9,300 | 1.33 | $8,000 | 1.03 |
| Josh Palmer | LAC | WR | 7.75 | $5,800 | $8,700 | 1.34 | $9,500 | 0.82 |
| Cameron Dicker | LAC | K | 7.67 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.42 | $9,000 | 0.85 |
| Evan McPherson | CIN | K | 7.33 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.47 | $9,000 | 0.81 |
| Gus Edwards | LAC | RB | 6.38 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 1.88 | $8,000 | 0.80 |
| Chargers | LAC | DST | 6.04 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.37 | $8,500 | 0.71 |
| Andrei Iosivas | CIN | WR | 5.13 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 1.71 | $9,500 | 0.54 |
| Bengals | CIN | DST | 4.42 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.11 | $8,500 | 0.52 |
| Khalil Herbert | CIN | RB | 4.02 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 1.68 | $7,500 | 0.54 |
| Tanner Hudson | CIN | TE | 3.39 | $3,800 | $5,700 | 0.89 | $6,000 | 0.57 |
| Hayden Hurst | LAC | TE | 3.04 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 1.90 | $6,000 | 0.51 |
| Jalen Reagor | LAC | WR | 2.97 | $600 | $900 | 4.95 | $5,500 | 0.54 |
| Jermaine Burton | CIN | WR | 2.30 | $2,600 | $3,900 | 0.88 | $7,000 | 0.33 |
| Drew Sample | CIN | TE | 1.78 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 0.64 | $6,500 | 0.27 |
| Derius Davis | LAC | WR | 1.17 | $800 | $1,200 | 1.46 | $5,500 | 0.21 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Cameron Dicker: $5,400 DK / $9,000 FD
The Chargers typically don’t find themselves in high-scoring games. They have an excellent defense and love to lean on their running game. Despite that, Cameron Dicker has made at least 2 field goals in 6 of 9 games this season. The offense should be able to move the ball at will against this struggling Bengals’ defense.
Bengals at Chargers Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 23-13
Cameron Dicker more than 1.5 field goals made (1.54x) – Sleeper Fantasy
We are back on track after wins in the last 2 primetime games. We are now 23-13 in Fantasy Pick’em plays this season. For tonight’s game, I am going with Cameron Dicker to make more than 1.5 field goals for all of the reasons mentioned above.
Use our Sleeper promo code for a $100 sign-up bonus.
Image Credit: Getty Images
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus