The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Bengals vs. Ravens
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Bengals vs. Ravens, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Thursday Night Football matchup. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Bengals vs. Ravens
We are back with another edition of Thursday Night Football. We have two division rivals squaring off in Baltimore. The Bengals are only 4-5 on the season, but they have a positive point differential and are very capable of making a run and sneaking into the playoffs. The Ravens look like one of the best teams in the NFL, as they are off to a 6-3 start with a point differential of +63 on the season. Both defenses are susceptible, so we could see fireworks in this one. The game features a 6-point spread and a 52.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Zack Moss – Out
Erick All – Out
Tee Higgins – Doubtful
Isaiah Likely – Out
Keaton Mitchell – Questionable
Cincinnati Bengals Preview
The Bengals have lost 5 games already this season, but it’s hard to blame Joe Burrow for those losses. He’s 2nd among all quarterbacks in quarterback rating and 6th in EPA per play. While he doesn’t offer much rushing upside, he still has a high ceiling. He’s topped 28 fantasy points three times already this season. This week he squares off against the biggest pass-funnel matchup in the NFL — the Ravens are 1st in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (75.7) and dead last in passing yards allowed per game (280.9). They have also allowed the 3rd-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
Let’s look at the wideout usage for the Bengals in the games Tee Higgins has missed this season (Weeks 1-2, 8-9):
JaMarr Chase: 95% route percentage, 23% target rate, 19% air yards share
Andrei Iosivas: 85% route percentage, 11% target rate, 19% air yards share
Mike Gesicki: 55% route percentage, 18% target rate, 25% air yards share
Trenton Irwin: 36% route percentage, 7% target rate, 10% air yards share
In addition to Higgins being doubtful, Erick All is on injured reserve and Jermaine Burton was a healthy scratch last week. Burton is expected to be active, but he’s unlikely to have much of a role. The splits for JaMarr Chase have been surprising this season — he has averaged 12.8 fantasy points in the 4 games Higgins has missed and 24.9 fantasy points in the 5 games Higgins has played. Opposing defenses can focus all of their attention on Chase when Higgins isn’t on the field. While the splits are noteworthy, I have a hard time fading Chase on a single-game slate against a team that has allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to wide receivers.
Andrei Iosivas hasn’t seen more than 4 targets in any game since Week 3. While he has underwhelmed in his opportunities, he’s still a major red-zone threat and has a 19% air yards share in the games that Higgins has missed this season. The biggest beneficiary with Higgins out has been Mike Gesicki, who has racked up an 18% target share and a 25% air yards share. He’s a tight end on paper but is essentially lining up as a slot receiver on more than half of his snaps. Trenton Irwin has only run a route on 35% of dropbacks in the games Higgins has missed but is only $1,200 on DraftKings.
Zack Moss was placed on injured reserve, which forced the Bengals to go out and pick up another running back. They acquired Khalil Herbert from the Bears. He should settle in as the No. 2 back behind Chase Brown and is tentatively expected to make his debut with the team tonight. The Bengals have primarily used two running backs all season, so don’t be surprised if Herbert has a large role in this offense moving forward. Brown has gotten more work on early downs this season (his pass protection isn’t great), but I expect a large role for him in all situations tonight. With Moss out last week, Brown had 27 carries and 5 receptions. It’s a brutal matchup, but the volume should be there for Brown tonight.
The Bengals can’t stop the run or the pass. They are facing one of the best offenses in the NFL on the road. I’ll take my chances with a fade of their defense. Evan McPherson has only made 13-of-17 field goals this season. The Bengals aren’t going to win this game if they settle for a bunch of field goals. I will be fading McPherson as well.
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Baltimore Ravens Preview
The Ravens have scored at least 30 points in 5 of their last 6 games. While divisional matchups tend to be lower-scoring, I don’t expect that to be the case. This season, the Bengals are 21st in EPA against the pass and 30th in EPA against the run. Lamar Jackson has his sights set on yet another MVP trophy. While he’s still the best quarterback when it comes to rushing, he’s quietly turned into one of the best passers as well. He leads the NFL in quarterback rating and EPA per dropback. He’s the easiest click at MVP and CPT on this Showdown slate.
Let’s look at the usage of Baltimore’s receiving room so far this season:
Zay Flowers: 86% route percentage, 26% target rate, 31% air yards share
Rashod Bateman: 79% route percentage, 15% target rate, 26% air yards share
Diontae Johnson (Week 9): 27% route percentage, 0% target rate, 0% air yards share
Mark Andrews: 55% route percentage, 11% target rate, 13% air yards share
Zay Flowers has been the clear WR1 for Jackson this season. He leads all Baltimore wideouts in route participation, target rate, and air yards share. After a slow start to the season, he has at least 110 receiving yards in 4 of the last 5 games. Rashod Bateman still ran a route on 82% of dropbacks last week with Diontae Johnson making his Ravens debut. Bateman is a deep threat that is facing a beatable secondary.
Johnson didn’t see a single target in his first game with the team. We can expect his playing time to increase moving forward, but I’m fine taking a wait-and-see approach for now. Mark Andrews has caught 4 touchdowns in the last 4 games and should see an uptick in snaps with Isaiah Likely out tonight. Charlie Kolar is only $600 on DraftKings and should be the TE2 for Baltimore. With so many viable, expensive options, he really helps on the salary front.
I’ll never forget how many people called Derrick Henry washed after Week 2’s game against the Raiders. You don’t get the nickname King Henry without the ability to persevere. He leads the NFL in rushing yards (1,052) and has already scored 13 touchdowns. I joked in Week 3 that Henry could score a touchdown in every game this season. That is quickly becoming a reality. This week he faces a bad run defense at home in a game where the Ravens are large favorites. Fade Henry at your own peril. Keaton Mitchell could be active tonight, but he’ll likely take work from Justice Hill if anything.
The Ravens have an above-average pass rush, while the Bengals are below-average in pass protection. The Ravens are sizable favorites at home and facing a team without one of their best players (Tee Higgins). While not a priority, I plan to get exposure to Baltimore’s defense. Kicker Justin Tucker is a strong value in all formats.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
Even though Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson are competing for production and touchdowns (Henry isn’t very involved in the passing game), I have a hard time fading either of these players. When the Ravens roll, both players typically crush when it comes to fantasy production. In fact, they have each scored at least 22 fantasy points in 3 of the last 4 games. I’ll let the field take their chances with a fade of Henry or Jackson.
Bengals vs. Ravens DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | QB | 24.82 | $11,400 | $17,100 | 2.18 | $15,500 | 1.60 |
| Ja’Marr Chase | CIN | WR | 22.52 | $10,800 | $16,200 | 2.09 | $13,000 | 1.73 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | QB | 20.42 | $10,400 | $15,600 | 1.96 | $14,000 | 1.46 |
| Derrick Henry | BAL | RB | 19.42 | $11,200 | $16,800 | 1.73 | $14,500 | 1.34 |
| Zay Flowers | BAL | WR | 17.72 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 1.85 | $12,000 | 1.48 |
| Chase Brown | CIN | RB | 17.40 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 1.93 | $12,500 | 1.39 |
| Mark Andrews | BAL | TE | 11.40 | $4,200 | $6,300 | 2.71 | $10,000 | 1.14 |
| Mike Gesicki | CIN | TE | 10.89 | $6,600 | $9,900 | 1.65 | $9,500 | 1.15 |
| Rashod Bateman | BAL | WR | 8.14 | $5,800 | $8,700 | 1.40 | $8,000 | 1.02 |
| Justice Hill | BAL | RB | 7.60 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.46 | $7,500 | 1.01 |
| Justin Tucker | BAL | K | 7.53 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.39 | $9,000 | 0.84 |
| Andrei Iosivas | CIN | WR | 7.06 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 2.08 | $7,500 | 0.94 |
| Evan McPherson | CIN | K | 6.97 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.39 | $8,500 | 0.82 |
| Ravens | BAL | DST | 6.27 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.43 | $9,000 | 0.70 |
| Jermaine Burton | CIN | WR | 5.55 | $2,200 | $3,300 | 2.52 | $6,500 | 0.85 |
| Charlie Kolar | BAL | TE | 5.19 | $600 | $900 | 8.65 | $6,500 | 0.80 |
| Diontae Johnson | BAL | WR | 4.88 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.02 | $11,000 | 0.44 |
| Bengals | CIN | DST | 4.43 | $3,800 | $5,700 | 1.17 | $8,500 | 0.52 |
| Tanner Hudson | CIN | TE | 4.20 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 2.63 | $5,000 | 0.84 |
| Drew Sample | CIN | TE | 3.88 | $2,600 | $3,900 | 1.49 | $6,000 | 0.65 |
| Nelson Agholor | BAL | WR | 2.87 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 0.96 | $7,000 | 0.41 |
| Trayveon Williams | CIN | RB | 2.64 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 1.32 | $5,500 | 0.48 |
| Trenton Irwin | CIN | WR | 1.79 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 1.49 | $5,500 | 0.33 |
| Khalil Herbert | CIN | RB | 1.50 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 0.54 | $8,000 | 0.19 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Andrei Iosivas: $3,400 DK / $7,500 FD
I can’t sit here and tell you Iosivas has had a good season. He’s had plenty of opportunities and has only caught 15-of-31 targets for 199 yards. However, he remains a solid red-zone target and has seen 19% of the team’s air yards in the 4 games that Tee Higgins has missed this season. There are certainly paths for him tonight against the biggest pass-funnel matchup in the NFL.
Bengals vs. Ravens Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 20-12
Justin Tucker more than 1.5 field goals made (1.53x) – Sleeper Fantasy
When it comes to Justin Tucker, the concern is never that the Ravens won’t be able to move the ball. The concern is that they won’t ever settle for field goals because their offense is so elite. However, Tucker has attempted at least 2 field goals in 7 of 9 games this season. He’s one of the most accurate kickers in NFL history. If he gets at least 2 field goal attempts tonight, this should be a piece of cake.
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Image Credit: Getty Images
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus