The NFL Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Bills vs. Buccaneers
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Bills vs. Buccaneers, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Thursday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Bills vs. Buccaneers
Week 8.
It feels like the NFL season just started and yet we are nearing the halfway point. There are many teams that we have a good grasp on at this stage and quite a few that we are still learning about. I would put the Bills and the Buccaneers in the latter category. Buffalo was starting to look like a Super Bowl contender after trouncing the Dolphins at home, but followed that up with a loss against the Jaguars, an ugly performance against the Giants, and a stunning defeat against the Patriots. Tampa Bay racked up a 3-1 record before losing their last two games against the Lions and Falcons. Thursday’s game between these two teams features an 8.5-point spread and a 42.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Baker Mayfield – Questionable
Chris Godwin – Questionable
Dawson Knox – Out
Damien Harris – Out
Quintin Morris – Questionable
Buffalo Bills Preview
The Bills are looking for something on offense after struggling to put up points in their last three games. It’s honestly a bit surprising given how good Josh Allen has been over the last few seasons. From a fantasy standpoint, he has still been extremely productive. He has topped 22 fantasy points in five of seven games. There’s no reason to fade Allen on a showdown slate, and given his rushing upside, he’s on my short list of potential plays at MVP and CPT. The Buccaneers are far from an intimidating matchup, ranking 14th in DVOA against the pass and 23rd in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Stefon Diggs has already scored six touchdowns this season and was close to a couple more last week against the Patriots. He and Allen missed a potential 75-yard score and then another potential touchdown in the red zone. You can’t argue with the talent, and the usage for Diggs is close to unmatched — 31% target share and a 45% air yards share. He’s the only player on the Bills with a ceiling that can match Allen’s, which also puts him on the short list for MVP and CPT on this slate.
With Dawson Knox out, even more of the ancillary pieces from the Bills’ passing attack are viable. Dalton Kincaid is coming off of his best game of the season, catching all eight of his targets for 75 yards. He has yet to score this season, but Dawson’s absence could lead to a bigger role in the red zone. Quintin Morris should also see an uptick in snaps and routes, assuming he’s able to suit up. He’s only $200 on DraftKings.
Gabe Davis is the ultimate boom-or-bust target in DFS. He has eclipsed 20 fantasy points two times this season, yet he only has six fantasy points in the last two games combined. The Bills might be forced into more three-receiver sets without Knox, which could make Khalil Shakir, Deonte Harty, and Trent Sherfield more appealing. They are likely too expensive to warrant consideration on FanDuel, but are reasonable punts on DraftKings.
There are always tough spots to figure out when it comes to NFL DFS, and the Bills’ backfield has been one of them. They continue to lean heavily on Latavius Murray, who is 33 years old and averaging less than four yards per carry. We did see James Cook take on a bigger role last week, and that could continue with Damien Harris on injured reserve. I’m not looking to force either back into my lineups, as the Buccaneers are second in rush EPA this season.
Update: The Bills did not elevate Fournette from the practice squad. Make sure not to play him in lineups. This news makes Cook and Murray a tad more appealing.
If it were up to me, we would do away with defenses in DFS. At the very least, the sites should lower the scoring because random defenses break far too many slates. But I digress. The Bills should be playing with a lead in this one, and they have the fourth most sacks per game this season. I have no issue using their defense against Tampa. Given the spread and Buffalo’s high team total, this shapes up as a good spot for Tyler Bass.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Preview
I’ve never been a Baker Mayfield truther and was forced to eat some crow (not real crow PETA) the first four games of the season. After throwing more interceptions than touchdowns the last two weeks, I feel a little better about my long-term Mayfield take. He’s currently dealing with a knee injury, so we need to monitor his status leading up to Thursday night. He’ll be viable if active given the nature of showdown slates, but he’s far from a must play. The Bills have an excellent pass rush and have allowed the second fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.
While it’s been a roller coaster of a season for Mayfield, Mike Evans is having himself a very nice season. He boasts a 23% target share, a 38% air yards share, and he has already scored four touchdowns. I know it’s taboo to talk about WR/CB matchups, but Evans does see a boost with Tre’Davious White on injured reserve. Chris Godwin got off to a slow start this season, but he has 30 targets, 20 receptions, and 257 receiving yards over the last three games. In a game where the Buccaneers should be trailing, we could see a pass-heavy game plan for Tampa.
Trey Palmer and Deven Thompkins round out the wide receiver room. They would be easy fades on a full slate, but Thompkins deserves a look on DraftKings at a price of only $1,600. Cade Otton has run a route on 78% of dropbacks this season, but doesn’t have much to show for it. He’s been held under four fantasy points in three of six games this season. He’s unlikely to break out here against the Bills, who are ranked eighth in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
A lot has been made about the lack of efficiency for Rachaad White this season. Averaging 3.2 yards per carry isn’t exactly ideal, but I will always chase volume at the running back position. He doesn’t have much competition for touches, and he’s caught at least three passes in each of his last five games. Ke’Shawn Vaughn has been a little more involved in the running game recently, but has only caught one pass all season. Perhaps this is the Chase Edmonds game if you are playing the blowout narrative. At $200, he could really be a difference-maker if that’s how the game plays out.
Josh Allen has made a number of questionable throws this season, but the Buccaneers are 21st in pressure rate and the Bills have allowed the third fewest sacks per game. Could they force a couple turnovers? Absolutely. Are they a priority? Absolutely. As I always note, I prefer using kickers on teams with high totals and/or are favored.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
It’s been a rough go for the Bills of late. They had to travel to London, they struggled at home against the Giants, and then they had to face a division-rival in the Patriots. This screams a get-right spot for a team with Super Bowl aspirations. My favorite game script is an absolute rout for the Bills. My building blocks on Buffalo will be Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and Dalton Kincaid. I don’t mind going with the full onslaught that includes the defense and/or kicker. For Tampa Bay, I’m really only looking to get exposure to their passing attack (or perhaps Rachaad White). The more Bills, the merrier.
Bills-Buccaneers DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja’Marr Chase | CIN | WR | 25.54 | $10,800 | $16,200 | 2.36 | $16,000 | 1.60 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | QB | 24.34 | $11,400 | $17,100 | 2.14 | $17,000 | 1.43 |
| Stefon Diggs | BUF | WR | 23.11 | $11,000 | $16,500 | 2.10 | $14,500 | 1.59 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | QB | 21.75 | $10,200 | $15,300 | 2.13 | $15,000 | 1.45 |
| Joe Mixon | CIN | RB | 18.98 | $8,000 | $12,000 | 2.37 | $12,500 | 1.52 |
| Tee Higgins | CIN | WR | 14.48 | $6,600 | $9,900 | 2.19 | $10,000 | 1.45 |
| Gabriel Davis | BUF | WR | 11.74 | $7,400 | $11,100 | 1.59 | $11,500 | 1.02 |
| James Cook | BUF | RB | 11.70 | $6,200 | $9,300 | 1.89 | $10,500 | 1.11 |
| Dalton Kincaid | BUF | TE | 11.66 | $6,800 | $10,200 | 1.71 | $8,000 | 1.46 |
| Tyler Boyd | CIN | WR | 10.34 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.91 | $9,500 | 1.09 |
| Khalil Shakir | BUF | WR | 8.15 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 2.40 | $7,000 | 1.16 |
| Evan McPherson | CIN | K | 7.80 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.63 | $8,500 | 0.92 |
| Tyler Bass | BUF | K | 7.47 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.44 | $8,500 | 0.88 |
| Irv Smith | CIN | TE | 5.83 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 3.64 | $7,500 | 0.78 |
| Latavius Murray | BUF | RB | 5.38 | $2,600 | $3,900 | 2.07 | $8,000 | 0.67 |
| Bengals | CIN | DST | 5.16 | $3,800 | $5,700 | 1.36 | $9,000 | 0.57 |
| Bills | BUF | DST | 5.10 | $4,200 | $6,300 | 1.21 | $9,000 | 0.57 |
| Trenton Irwin | CIN | WR | 2.74 | $800 | $1,200 | 3.43 | $7,500 | 0.37 |
| Trayveon Williams | CIN | RB | 2.01 | $4,600 | $6,900 | 0.44 | $6,500 | 0.31 |
| Deonte Harty | BUF | WR | 1.92 | $200 | $300 | 9.60 | $6,000 | 0.32 |
| Trent Sherfield | BUF | WR | 1.69 | $400 | $600 | 4.23 | $6,500 | 0.26 |
| Tanner Hudson | CIN | TE | 1.40 | $200 | $300 | 7.00 | $5,500 | 0.25 |
| Quintin Morris | BUF | TE | 0.99 | $200 | $300 | 4.95 | $5,000 | 0.20 |
| Andrei Iosivas | CIN | WR | 0.96 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 0.96 | $6,000 | 0.16 |
| Chris Evans | CIN | RB | 0.80 | $200 | $300 | 4.00 | $5,000 | 0.16 |
| Drew Sample | CIN | TE | 0.52 | $200 | $300 | 2.60 | $5,500 | 0.09 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Dalton Kincaid: $5,000 DK / $7,500 FD
Kincaid may not fit the sleeper description, but he’s one of my favorite plays on the board, and I wanted to highlight him in some fashion. He’s coming off of his best game of the season and will now be the featured tight end with Dawson Knox out. He has some positive touchdown regression coming his way, and I’m hoping his price point will keep ownership at a reason level.
Bills vs. Buccaneers Player Props
Dalton Kincaid over 37.5 receiving yards (1.79x) – Sleeper
The props have been red-hot and are coming off of an easy win with T.J. Hockenson on Monday night. We are sticking with the tight end theme and going with Dalton Kincaid over 37.5 receiving yards. He’s topped 40 yards in two of his last five games and should be heavily involved in the game plan with Dawson Knox out.