The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Bills vs. Ravens
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Bills vs. Ravens, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks that we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites, like Sleeper Fantasy, ahead of this Sunday Night Football matchup. To build the best lineups possible, check out LineupHQ, which is my favorite NFL DFS optimizer in the industry.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Bills vs. Ravens
We are back at it on Sunday night, and this should be a good one. The Bills are one of the only undefeated teams left in the NFL, while the Ravens are coming off a big win over the Cowboys in Dallas. These are two of the favorites to make it out of the AFC, and who knows, we could see a rematch between these teams in the playoffs. This game features a 2.5-point spread and a 46.5-point total.
Key Injuries
None
Buffalo Bills Preview
The Bills have looked better than expected this season, especially on the defensive side of the ball. I will note that they haven’t exactly faced the most potent offenses, as they’ve beaten the Cardinals, Dolphins (Tua Tagovailoa got hurt early), and Jaguars. Despite losing Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis in the offseason, the offense hasn’t skipped a beat. They have averaged 37.3 points per game, which is easily the highest mark of any team heading into Week 4.
Josh Allen put up 32 fantasy points in Week 1 and nearly had 30 fantasy points by halftime in last week’s game against the Jaguars. He didn’t do much in their win over the Dolphins, but that game was out of hand early, and the Bills didn’t need to air it out much. Given the fact that Allen spreads the ball around and that he’s capable of rushing for multiple touchdowns, he’s almost always my favorite MVP and CPT on Showdown slates.
Let’s take a look at the wideout usage for Buffalo this season:
Khalil Shakir: 67% route percentage, 19% target rate, 10% air yards share
Keon Coleman: 62% route percentage, 10% target rate, 19% air yards share
Curtis Samuel: 31% route percentage, 10% target rate, 5% air yards share
Marquez Valdes-Scantling: 34% route percentage, 7% target rate, 21% air yards share
Dalton Kincaid: 65% route percentage, 14% target rate, 13% air yards share
Dawson Knox: 41% route percentage, 6% target rate, 5% air yards share
As noted earlier, Allen likes to spread the ball around. There isn’t a wideout on the roster that has run a route on more than 67% of Allen’s dropbacks. Khalil Shakir has been the most productive (14.3 fantasy points per game) of the bunch in the first three games, but his expected fantasy points per game (8.9) is well below his actual output. He does run 83% of his routes from the slot though, which tends to give him a high floor. Keon Coleman caught his first NFL touchdown last week against the Jaguars but ran a route on 31% of dropbacks. Apparently, he was benched for being late to practice. We can expect his snap rate to go back up against the Ravens.
Curtis Samuel and Marquez Valdes-Scantling have both run routes on around 30% of dropbacks this season. They both have similar target rates as well. The difference comes in the routes they run. Samuel has one of the lowest aDOTs on the team, while MVS leads all Buffalo wideouts in air yards share. Samuel is better suited for cash games, while MVS is better suited for tournaments. The breakout game from Dalton Kincaid finally happened last week. He caught 3-of-5 targets for 41 yards and a touchdown. And I say breakout because tight end production across the league has been awful this season. It’s a good matchup, as the Ravens have allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to tight ends. Dawson Knox doesn’t see many targets, but he remains a redzone threat that could find his way onto the optimal lineup with a touchdown.
James Cook has averaged 16.7 opportunities per game, turning those into 95 yards from scrimmage. More importantly, he has already eclipsed his rushing touchdown total from last season. The Bills are using him more in the redzone. The problem here is a matchup against the Ravens, who are top 5 in PFF’s rush grades, EPA against the run, and fantasy points allowed to running backs. I don’t plan to use Cook in single-entry contests, but he’s viable if you are building multiple lineups on this slate. Ty Johnson has seen 6 targets this season but isn’t cheap enough to warrant consideration.
The Bills D/ST has played well in the first 3 games, but again, they haven’t faced the most intimidating offenses. Playing the Ravens on the road is a tough task for any defense, especially one missing its star linebacker. I’m not prioritizing them in any format. Kicker Tyler Bass is one of the safest value plays on the board.
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Baltimore Ravens Preview
The Ravens have had an interesting start to the season. They were beaten by the defending champs (again) in their opener, they blew a late 10-point lead to the Raiders in Week 2, and then they went into Dallas and put a whooping on the Cowboys. They are looking to get back to .500 with a win against the Bills.
Similar to Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson is a player that I love using at MVP and CPT when he’s playing on these Showdown slates. While he’s capable of throwing for over 300 yards, he’s just as likely to have a big game on the ground. Unlike stationary quarterbacks, Jackson can have a massive fantasy outing without bringing any of his wideouts along with him. When we see a pocket passer throw for 300 yards and 2 touchdowns, it’s likely that one of his wideouts outscores him (especially on DraftKings). It doesn’t matter how many lineups I build for this slate; they will all feature both quarterbacks.
Last week was a bit of an aberration, as Jackson only dropped back 17 times. Still, let’s take a look at the usage for Balitmore’s wideouts through the first 3 games:
Zay Flowers: 91% route percentage, 27% target rate, 28% air yards share
Rashod Bateman: 80% route percentage, 14% target rate, 32% air yards share
Nelson Agholor: 36% route percentage, 4% target rate, 9% air yards share
Mark Andrews: 62% route percentage, 9% target rate, 12% air yards share
Isaiah Likely: 50% route percentage, 18% target rate, 23% air yards share
Zay Flowers is coming off his worst game of the season, but there are plenty of reasons to like him in this spot. The Bills have been tough on opposing receivers thus far, but I get the feeling that won’t be the case for long. Their secondary was extremely susceptible last season. Flowers has 17.7 expected fantasy points per game this season, which is the 3rd-best mark of any receiver expected to suit up this week. Rashod Bateman is the clear WR2 in Baltimore and leads the team in air yards share. I prefer Flowers if you can find the cap space, but I will have plenty of exposure to Bateman as well.
I don’t feel nearly as good about the rest of the wideouts on the Ravens. Baltimore isn’t a team that runs a lot of three-receiver sets, especially when they are playing with a lead. Nelson Agholor has only run a route on 36% of dropbacks this season and only has a 4% target rate. Mark Andrews only ran a route on 6 dropbacks last week, which is a wild statistic for one of the most productive tight ends in football over the last 5 years. His usage is certainly concerning. Isaiah Likely has a lower route participation number but has a much higher target (18%) and air yards (23%) shares. For what it’s worth, the Bills have allowed the 9th-most fantasy points to tight ends this season.
The Ravens started using more off-tackle runs in the second half of the game against the Raiders. They were finally able to get Derrick Henry going. They continued that in Week 3 against the Cowboys, and Henry had one of his classic breakout performances — 25 rushes, 151 yards, and 2 touchdowns. The Bills have been tough against the pass but are 26th in PFF’s rush defense grades and 27th in EPA against the run. I’ll continue targeting King Henry in all formats.
The Ravens D/ST hasn’t been very impressive this season. They struggled against the Chiefs and gave up a lot of second-half production to both the Raiders and Cowboys. I’d rather target the cheaper wideouts or the kickers in this game. Speaking of, Justin Tucker is always viable on Showdown slates.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
I mentioned this earlier, but every lineup that I build will feature both quarterbacks. Most of the lineups will have one of the two quarterbacks at MVP or CPT. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are two of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the NFL and are both capable of scoring 30+ fantasy points. I plan to be overweight on both kickers and underweight on both defenses.
Bills vs. Ravens DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | QB | 22.70 | $10,800 | $16,200 | 2.10 | $16,500 | 1.38 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | QB | 20.80 | $11,000 | $16,500 | 1.89 | $17,000 | 1.22 |
| James Cook | BUF | RB | 15.66 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 1.63 | $14,000 | 1.12 |
| Zay Flowers | BAL | WR | 15.28 | $8,600 | $12,900 | 1.78 | $12,000 | 1.27 |
| Derrick Henry | BAL | RB | 15.04 | $9,800 | $14,700 | 1.53 | $14,500 | 1.04 |
| Khalil Shakir | BUF | WR | 14.81 | $7,600 | $11,400 | 1.95 | $11,000 | 1.35 |
| Dalton Kincaid | BUF | TE | 10.66 | $7,200 | $10,800 | 1.48 | $10,500 | 1.02 |
| Mark Andrews | BAL | TE | 8.63 | $5,800 | $8,700 | 1.49 | $10,000 | 0.86 |
| Rashod Bateman | BAL | WR | 7.67 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.74 | $7,500 | 1.02 |
| Justin Tucker | BAL | K | 7.37 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.47 | $9,000 | 0.82 |
| Isaiah Likely | BAL | TE | 7.07 | $6,200 | $9,300 | 1.14 | $9,500 | 0.74 |
| Ravens | BAL | DST | 6.43 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.79 | $8,500 | 0.76 |
| Justice Hill | BAL | RB | 6.35 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.18 | $8,000 | 0.79 |
| Tyler Bass | BUF | K | 6.22 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.30 | $9,000 | 0.69 |
| Bills | BUF | DST | 6.14 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.54 | $8,500 | 0.72 |
| Curtis Samuel | BUF | WR | 5.95 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 1.75 | $7,000 | 0.85 |
| Nelson Agholor | BAL | WR | 5.44 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 1.70 | $6,500 | 0.84 |
| Keon Coleman | BUF | WR | 5.28 | $6,600 | $9,900 | 0.80 | $8,000 | 0.66 |
| Dawson Knox | BUF | TE | 3.08 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 1.93 | $6,000 | 0.51 |
| Ray Davis | BUF | RB | 3.02 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 1.08 | $7,500 | 0.40 |
| Ty Johnson | BUF | RB | 2.92 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 1.22 | $6,500 | 0.45 |
| Mack Hollins | BUF | WR | 2.33 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 1.17 | $7,000 | 0.33 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | BUF | WR | 1.67 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 1.39 | $6,000 | 0.28 |
| Deonte Harty | BAL | WR | 1.16 | $200 | $300 | 5.80 | $5,000 | 0.23 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Zay Flowers: $8,600 DK / $12,000 FD
Given the roster construction on this slate (forcing in Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson) and the fact that Zay Flowers struggled last week, I doubt his ownership will be very high. He’s had elite usage this season, and as noted above, his expected fantasy points per game (17.7) suggests some positive regression moving forward.
Bills vs. Ravens Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 9-2
Derrick Henry more than 70.5 rushing yards (1.86x) – Sleeper Fantasy
We got another win on Thursday night with Brandon Aubrey more than 1.5 field goals made. I was tempted to go with Zay Flowers to get more than 4.5 receptions, but we know the Ravens want to run the ball, especially when they have the lead. Derrick Henry has looked great in the last 6 quarters of play and is a good bet to see 20+ carries in a neutral or favorable game script. The matchup also sets up better for the run game, as the Bills are a bottom-10 run defense in most metrics.
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Image Credit: Getty Images
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus