The NFL Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Broncos vs. Vikings
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In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Broncos vs. Vikings, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Sunday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Broncos vs. Vikings
Alas, we arrive at another primetime showdown slate. Thanksgiving is only four days away, which is always my favorite football slate of the season. We get the three-game Turkey Day slate and big showdown contests for all of the individual games. And don’t worry, we will have you covered with PLENTY of content for these games.
We have an interesting game on tap this evening. The schedule makers probably thought this would be a good game on paper before the season started, they probably thought the game would be meaningless a few weeks ago, and now they probably think the game is decent enough to get people to watch. Don’t worry schedule makers, we will watch no matter what. After some nice wins the last couple of weeks, the Broncos and Vikings are both alive in the playoff hunt. This game features a 2.5-point spread and a 42.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Justin Jefferson – Out
Cam Akers – Out
Alexander Mattison – Questionable
Denver Broncos Preview
Sean Payton and the Broncos were the punch line of many jokes after the first couple months of the season, but look who’s laughing now. Denver has reeled off three straight wins against the Packers, Chiefs, and Bills. They now have a chance to get back to .500 on the season. Russell Wilson has benefitted from garbage time on a number of occasions, but has topped 18 fantasy points in 6 of 9 games. His increased scrambling has been a big part of that, as he’s ran for at least 30 yards in 5 games. The Vikings have been better against the pass this season (9th in DVOA), but have the 4th lowest pressure rate.
Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy have similar usage (both have a target share between 18-22% and an air yards share between 34-37%), but the former has been much more productive in fantasy because he has scored 7 touchdowns. Jeudy has only scored 1 touchdown all season, which is why he is averaging only 9.1 fantasy points per game. We can look at this in two ways — Sutton is just a better receiver in the redzone and commands more targets, or Jeudy has some positive touchdown regression coming his way in the near future. As it stands now, there’s not a big enough gap in price and ownership for me to prefer Jeudy over Sutton.
The fantasy gods finally listened to our pleas for more Denzel Mims playing time. Coming out of the bye, he played on 69% of snaps and ran a route on 28 dropbacks. He was only targeted once, but that’s not a concern. He’s an explosive playmaker that has finally separated himself from the other ancillary wide receivers in this offense. A case can be made for all three of these receivers, as the Vikings have allowed the eighth most fantasy points to the position. With Greg Dulcich still out, Adam Trautman will continue to lead the tight ends in snaps and routes. He’s not an exciting play, but he can be included in your MME player pool.
The Broncos love to run the football and Javonte Williams has been cut loose over the last 3 games with touch totals of 18, 30, and 25. His efficiency on the ground is better than you might expect and he has at least 3 receptions in 5 games already this season. The Vikings have been good against the run and have been tough on running backs this season, but Williams is viable thanks to volume alone. Jaleel McLaughlin and Samaje Perine will mix in here and there, but will likely need a touchdown to end up on the optimal lineup. If you are looking for safety, I’d rather use one of the kickers.
The Broncos were on pace to have one of the worst defenses in NFL history, but have held their last four opponents to 17 points per game. They are forcing turnovers and playing as home favorites, but do have the 6th fewest sacks per game this season. Kicker Wil Lutz has at least 2 made field goals in 7 of 9 games this season.
Minnesota Vikings Preview
How fun has Joshua Dobbs been this season? His play on the field is the only thing that’s better than the actual story. He was a late trade to the Cardinals and ended up playing well. Then he was dealt at the deadline and has led his new team to back-to-back victories over the Falcons and Saints. His matchup against the Broncos is going to look great on paper, but they have obviously been much better over the last 4 games. Playing in Denver is typically difficult and for the first time in a couple years, I expect the fans to be a factor in this stadium. I’m not fading Dobbs though, as he has at least 40 rushing yards in 7 of 10 games this season.
Apparently, playing in only key situations means playing every pass play. Ed Werder, you got me good. After expecting to be limited last week. T.J. Hockenson broke the main slate with 11 receptions, 134 yards, and a touchdown. We know Dobbs likes to throw to his tight ends (see Zach Ertz and Trey McBride) and Hockenson is one of the most talented players at his position in the NFL. He should be licking his chops for a matchup against the Broncos, who have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to tight ends this season.
Justin Jefferson is close to returning, but the Vikings have already ruled him out for this game. It will be interesting to see who Patrick Surtain covers more on the Vikings, Jordan Addison or K.J. Obsorn. Given their numbers over the last month, I would expect Addison to be treated as the WR1. The DFS community used to overvalue WR/CB matchups, but now they seem to be ignored completely. Addison is the better play on paper, but Osborn could be a nice pivot in tournaments. Brandon Powell will also get some run, but he’s not priced like a typical WR3/WR4 on a showdown slate.
I had a really good lineup with Alexander Mattison in it last week. I had to watch Ty Chandler steal a touchdown and then Dobbs run another one in before Mattison was ruled out with a concussion. He’s listed as questionable for this game, so we’ll have to keep an eye on his availability. If he’s active, we’ll likely see a 50/50 split between Mattison and Chandler. If he’s out, Chandler will take over as the clear RB1 and become an elite play in all formats. The Broncos have allowed more fantasy points to running backs than any team in the NFL this season.
The Vikings had one of the worst defenses in the league last season, but that’s actually been their strength this season. They are good against the run and the pass. They are also 12th in pressure rate, while the Broncos have allowed the 3rd most sacks per game. Kicker Greg Joseph has at least 2 field goals made in 5 of his last 6 games.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
I wouldn’t have been happy to see this showdown slate a few weeks ago, but this is actually a fun game for DFS. We have good options on both sides of the ball, a case can be made for both defenses, and the kickers have been very productive in recent weeks. Perhaps the eternal optimist in me is trying to make this game out to be better than it is, but I like slates where there are a lot of choices.
I’m not going to max enter the large tournaments, but I am going to build 20-25 lineups here. My plan is to use SimLabs by entering in 5 lineups for each of my favorite captains. I’ll let the builder do its thing and then handpick my favorites. For instance, I’ll make 5 lineups with Dobbs at captain, 5 with Hockenson at captain, 5 with Sutton at captain, and so on. The builder will automatically take care of correlation and ownership.
Broncos-Vikings DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | DEN | QB | 17.85 | $10,000 | $15,000 | 1.79 | $14,500 | 1.23 |
| Joshua Dobbs | MIN | QB | 17.68 | $10,600 | $15,900 | 1.67 | $15,000 | 1.18 |
| Javonte Williams | DEN | RB | 17.21 | $8,800 | $13,200 | 1.96 | $13,000 | 1.32 |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | WR | 16.46 | $12,200 | $18,300 | 1.35 | $17,000 | 0.97 |
| T.J. Hockenson | MIN | TE | 13.59 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 1.45 | $12,000 | 1.13 |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN | WR | 12.19 | $8,200 | $12,300 | 1.49 | $12,500 | 0.98 |
| Alexander Mattison | MIN | RB | 9.99 | $7,400 | $11,100 | 1.35 | $10,500 | 0.95 |
| Jordan Addison | MIN | WR | 9.69 | $8,400 | $12,600 | 1.15 | $11,500 | 0.84 |
| Jerry Jeudy | DEN | WR | 9.43 | $7,800 | $11,700 | 1.21 | $9,500 | 0.99 |
| Wil Lutz | DEN | K | 8.39 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.68 | $9,000 | 0.93 |
| Greg Joseph | MIN | K | 7.45 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.43 | $8,500 | 0.88 |
| Broncos | DEN | DST | 6.50 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.48 | $8,500 | 0.76 |
| Vikings | MIN | DST | 5.92 | $4,600 | $6,900 | 1.29 | $9,000 | 0.66 |
| Marvin Mims | DEN | WR | 5.69 | $5,600 | $8,400 | 1.02 | $7,500 | 0.76 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | DEN | RB | 5.37 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 1.92 | $8,000 | 0.67 |
| Ty Chandler | MIN | RB | 4.81 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 0.69 | $10,000 | 0.48 |
| Samaje Perine | DEN | RB | 4.69 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 1.47 | $7,000 | 0.67 |
| Adam Trautman | DEN | TE | 4.55 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.26 | $6,500 | 0.70 |
| K.J. Osborn | MIN | WR | 4.31 | $6,600 | $9,900 | 0.65 | $7,500 | 0.57 |
| Lucas Krull | DEN | TE | 1.76 | $200 | $300 | 8.80 | $5,000 | 0.35 |
| Lil’Jordan Humphrey | DEN | WR | 1.61 | $1,800 | $2,700 | 0.89 | $5,500 | 0.29 |
| Chris Manhertz | DEN | TE | 1.59 | $200 | $300 | 7.95 | $5,000 | 0.32 |
| Josh Oliver | MIN | TE | 1.00 | $2,600 | $3,900 | 0.38 | $6,000 | 0.17 |
Fantasy Sleepers
KJ Osborn: $6,600 DK / $7,500 FD
This is far from a smash play, but Osborn will naturally get overlooked after missing last week’s game against the Saints. He has fallen to 3rd in the pecking order in terms of targets, but will be a full-go for this game. If the Broncos sell out to stop Hockenson or if Surtain ends up shutting Addison down, we could see more targets funnel to Osborn. If you are looking to get contrarian in tournaments, Osborn is one way to do it.
Broncos vs. Vikings Player Pick’em
Wil Lutz more than 1.5 field goals made (1.89x) – Sleeper
The Broncos offense has been better in recent weeks. Well, I suppose the main difference has been their defense, but the offense seems more potent recently. Anyway, they have struggled to score touchdowns in the redzone, which is why Lutz has made at least 2 field goals in 7 of 9 games this season. The Vikings have a fairly stingy defense, which could lead to a drives stalling out.