The NFL Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Chargers vs. Ravens
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In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Chargers vs. Ravens, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Sunday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Chargers vs. Ravens
The Chargers are going to Charger. It doesn’t matter who the quarterback is or who the coach is, they are going to lose games that they shouldn’t every single season (most by a field goal). Then right when everyone counts them out, they make a big push toward the playoffs. On paper, the Ravens should run away with this game, but we have seen this story play out far too many times. The line for this game is down to 3 points despite the fact that 60% of the bets are on the Ravens. This suggests the “sharps” are on the Chargers, and I certainly lean that way when it comes to betting. However, we are here to break down the game from a DFS perspective.
Key Injuries
Gerald Everett – Probable
Jalen Guyton – Probable
Zay Flowers – Probable
Odell Beckham – Probable
Los Angeles Chargers Preview
Even though the Chargers are getting close to being eliminated from playoff contention, it hasn’t been the fault of Justin Herbert. He continues to play at a high level even though he has lost two of his best wide receivers. The defense has really been the big issue for the Chargers this season. A matchup against the Ravens is never ideal, as they are 1st in the NFL in sacks per game and 1st in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. However, this is showdown, and Herbert has topped 20 fantasy points in 8 of 10 games this season. He’s been scrambling a bit more than usual lately, which makes him an appealing option at MVP and Captain.
It sounds like Gerald Everett and Jalen Guyton will be back for this game, but the Chargers will still be without Mike Williams and Josh Palmer. Keenan Allen is putting up a great fight against Father Time, racking up a target share of 31% and an air yards share of 38%. The Ravens have some good cornerbacks, but we know Allen is going to get open and we know Herbert is going to force the ball his way. When it comes to MVP and Captain consideration on the Chargers, there are really only three potential options — Herbert, Allen, and Austin Ekeler.
Quentin Johnston is technically the WR2 in this offense, but he continues to make big mistake after big mistake. He had a chance to win the game last week against the Packers, but couldn’t haul in a dime from Herbert. He’s still viable given his cheap salary, but there’s a chance Herbert stops looking his way. Guyton is technically listed as questionable, but is expected to suit up. I much prefer Guyton over Johnston if choosing between the two. Everett is also expected to suit up even though he is listed as questionable. The Ravens are tough on tight ends, but they are tough against all positions. Donald Parham should still be involved if you want to look his way in large-field tournaments.
Is it just me, or does Ekeler looks like he’s stuck in mud? He’s still been very productive thanks to his pass-game usage, but he has lacked efficiency on the ground. With how bad the pass catchers not named Allen have been, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Ekeler get double-digit targets. He’s not cheap, and the matchup is far from ideal, but he’s going to get 20+ opportunities regardless of how the game plays out. Joshua Kelley will mix in here and there, but he’s not cheap enough to deserve consideration outside of large-field tournaments.
The Chargers defense is 23rd in pressure rate, 26th in DVOA against the pass, and 26th in DVOA against the run. If the Ravens are going to make mistakes, they will likely be self-imposed. I’m not saying the Chargers defense can’t get there, but they are not a priority for me on this slate. I do have a little interest in kicker Cameron Dicker.
Baltimore Ravens Preview
The Ravens are currently atop the AFC North and got some extra rest, as their last game was last Thursday. Lamar Jackson has had a bunch of touchdowns stolen from him by the running backs over the last month, but he still has one of the highest ceilings in fantasy football. He has already topped 29 fantasy points three times this season. This week’s matchup is a good one, as the Chargers are 26th in DVOA against the pass and dead last in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Jackson is one of the easy clicks at MVP and Captain on this slate.
With Mark Andrews out for the season, we should see a lot more targets funnel to the wide receivers in this offense. That could especially be the case in this matchup, as the Chargers have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to the position this season. Zay Flowers has seen 32 more targets than any other player that will be active on the Ravens. He’s a strong option in all formats. Odell Beckham is not an every-down player, but he does command a lot of targets. Over the last 3 games, he has caught 10 passes for 212 yards and 2 touchdowns.
If you don’t like targeting players with low snap rates, Rashod Bateman is basically seeing twice as many snaps as Beckham. He hasn’t had any huge games, but he scored last week and has seen 11 targets over the last 3 games. Nelson Agholor is the cheapest of the receivers and will also mix in here and there. With Andrews out, Isaiah Likely will serve as the TE1 in this offense. He has not performed well in this spot in the past, but the role is very good. Charlie Kolar will also mix in at tight end and is a sneaky punt play over on DraftKings ($600).
The Ravens backfield is tough to predict when healthy. Gus Edwards is still projecting to lead the way in terms of touches, but Keaton Mitchell is the most explosive of the three running backs. Justice Hill is still going to get a handful of touches, which makes this somewhat of a guessing game. The good news is that the Chargers are 26th in DVOA against the run and 25th in fantasy points allowed to running backs. On a per-dollar basis, Mitchell is my favorite of the three.
Again, I expect the Chargers to play well in this spot. However, that’s based on prior years and not necessarily their play over the last few weeks. The Ravens lead the NFL in sacks per game, so their defense is firmly in play for this showdown slate. Kicker Justin Tucker is no stranger to being featured on the optimal lineup in showdown. It sounds crazy, but a 4 or 5 field goal game is in play here.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
In terms of roster construction and stacks, I don’t have any super strong takes. I do think an interesting build is using Lamar Jackson at MVP and Captain and then loading up on the Chargers’ side of the ball. The thought process is that Jackson spreads the ball around through the air and has a good game with his legs (potentially a score or two).
Chargers-Ravens DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | QB | 23.25 | $12,000 | $18,000 | 1.94 | $17,500 | 1.33 |
| Keenan Allen | LAC | WR | 20.73 | $11,200 | $16,800 | 1.85 | $15,000 | 1.38 |
| Austin Ekeler | LAC | RB | 18.67 | $10,000 | $15,000 | 1.87 | $14,500 | 1.29 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | QB | 18.64 | $11,000 | $16,500 | 1.69 | $16,500 | 1.13 |
| Zay Flowers | BAL | WR | 14.94 | $8,000 | $12,000 | 1.87 | $11,000 | 1.36 |
| Gus Edwards | BAL | RB | 10.67 | $8,600 | $12,900 | 1.24 | $12,500 | 0.85 |
| Odell Beckham | BAL | WR | 9.87 | $6,200 | $9,300 | 1.59 | $10,000 | 0.99 |
| Quentin Johnston | LAC | WR | 8.84 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 2.95 | $8,500 | 1.04 |
| Keaton Mitchell | BAL | RB | 8.79 | $6,800 | $10,200 | 1.29 | $8,000 | 1.10 |
| Justin Tucker | BAL | K | 8.32 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.54 | $9,000 | 0.92 |
| Isaiah Likely | BAL | TE | 8.08 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.55 | $7,500 | 1.08 |
| Rashod Bateman | BAL | WR | 7.50 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.88 | $6,500 | 1.15 |
| Cameron Dicker | LAC | K | 7.13 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.43 | $8,500 | 0.84 |
| Ravens | BAL | DST | 6.71 | $4,200 | $6,300 | 1.60 | $9,500 | 0.71 |
| Chargers | LAC | DST | 5.72 | $3,800 | $5,700 | 1.51 | $9,000 | 0.64 |
| Gerald Everett | LAC | TE | 5.64 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.18 | $7,000 | 0.81 |
| Joshua Kelley | LAC | RB | 4.74 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 1.39 | $6,500 | 0.73 |
| Donald Parham | LAC | TE | 4.50 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.02 | $7,000 | 0.64 |
| Alex Erickson | LAC | WR | 4.26 | $400 | $600 | 10.65 | $5,000 | 0.85 |
| Nelson Agholor | BAL | WR | 3.35 | $2,200 | $3,300 | 1.52 | $7,500 | 0.45 |
| Justice Hill | BAL | RB | 2.86 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 1.79 | $6,500 | 0.44 |
| Charlie Kolar | BAL | TE | 2.71 | $600 | $900 | 4.52 | $5,000 | 0.54 |
| Derius Davis | LAC | WR | 2.68 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 2.68 | $6,000 | 0.45 |
| Stone Smartt | LAC | TE | 2.18 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 1.82 | $5,000 | 0.44 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Keaton Mitchell: $6,800 DK / $8,000 FD
We are generally hesitant to target backfields that have a timeshare, especially when there are three running backs involved. At this price point, I get the feeling we won’t have to worry about ownership too much on Keaton Mitchell. We are really looking for the home run play here. He has averaged over 10 yards per carry this season and has scored 2 touchdowns over the last 3 games. As noted above, the Chargers are 26th in DVOA against the run.
Chargers vs. Ravens Player Pick’em
Jalen Guyton more than 2.5 receptions (1.80x) – Sleeper
Cue the DJ Khaled GIF because we hit ‘another one.’ Tyreek Hill made quick work of his 75.5 yard receiving prop on Friday. I need to go back and count all of these, but I believe we are close to a 75% hit rate on props for these showdown slate write-ups. Let’s keep it going with Jalen Guyton to get more than 2.5 receptions. The last time he played, he caught 4-of-6 targets and could be even more of a feature role this week with how much Johnston has struggled.