The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Colts vs. Vikings
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Colts vs. Vikings, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Sunday Night Football matchup. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers – Colts vs. Vikings
We are back with another Sunday Night Football game, and this should be a good one. The Colts have decided to move on from Anthony Richardson in hopes that Joe Flacco can lead them to the playoffs. They are 4-4 on the season and still alive in the AFC South division race. The Vikings have lost 2 games in a row and are now 3rd in their division after a 5-0 start. They’ll look to bounce back in a home matchup against a beatable defense. This game has shootout potential, as it features a 5.5-point spread and a 46.5-point total.
Key Injuries
None
Indianapolis Colts Preview
As noted in the introduction, the Colts have officially handed the reigns of the offense to Joe Flacco. The locker room wasn’t happy with the play of Anthony Richardson, and I’m sure head coach Shane Steichen is fine with the move. From a DFS perspective, the Colts are now a lot more interesting. Flacco was incredible during his time with the Browns last season and flashed upside against the Jaguars earlier this season, throwing for 359 yards and 3 touchdowns. This week, he squares off against the Vikings, who have allowed the 7th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. Given his lack of mobility, I prefer using Flacco at UTIL/AnyFLEX.
Let’s take a look at the wideout usage in the games that Joe Flacco has started:
Michael Pittman: 80% route percentage, 19% target rate, 21% air yards share
Josh Downs: 71% route percentage, 27% target rate, 18% air yards share
Alec Pierce: 73% route percentage, 8% target rate, 26% air yards share
I didn’t include the other wideouts because the Colts mix in a bunch of tight ends. While Josh Downs has had the bigger numbers with Flacco under center, Michael Pittman leads the team with a 21% air yards share. There are concerns that Pittman isn’t 100%, and we have Downs projected slightly higher, but I will side with Pittman here (I’ll have exposure to both). Alec Pierce is awfully enticing, as he should see a few targets downfield. It’s a great matchup for all of them, as the Vikings are dead last in fantasy points allowed to the position this season. It’s a crap shoot at tight end, as we have a trio projected between 2 and 4 fantasy points.
Jonathan Taylor saw all 20 of the running back carries last week against the Texans. His receiving upside goes up with Flacco under center, and we don’t have to worry about Flacco stealing carries inside the 5-yard line like we do with Richardson. I will note the Vikings are one of the most difficult matchups possible for a running back. They are 3rd in PFF’s run grades and 1st in EPA against the run. I still plan to be overweight on Taylor, as I love his 20+ touch upside.
I don’t have any interest in the Colts D/ST. A fluke play could always lead to a touchdown, but they don’t have much talent defensively and don’t get much pressure on the quarterback. Kicker Matt Gay is viable, but he’s my second favorite kicker in this game.
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Minnesota Vikings Preview
The Vikings are looking to right the ship after losing each of the last 2 games. Sam Darnold has been better than anyone could have imagined, although his form has slipped a bit in the last few games. After topping 20 fantasy points in 3 of the first 4 games, he has averaged 13 fantasy points in the last 3 games. This week he squares off against the Colts, who have the 3rd-lowest pressure rate in the NFL. Indianapolis is also 23rd in EPA against the pass and 21st in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Darnold is a strong option in all formats.
While T.J. Hockenson is expected to make his season debut, let’s still take a look at the wideout usage for Minnesota this season:
Justin Jefferson: 91% route percentage, 32% target rate, 45% air yards share
Jordan Addison: 78% route percentage, 17% target rate, 31% air yards share
Jalen Nailor: 63% route percentage, 11% target rate, 14% air yards share
Justin Jefferson is my favorite target at MVP/CPT on this Showdown Slate. He has massive usage, he’s one of the most talented receivers in football, and he’s facing a very beatable secondary. Jordan Addison is an intriguing leverage play, or you can double-stack with Darnold. T.J. Hockenson practiced in full this week and doesn’t have an injury designation. There’s a chance they take him off the field at times, but he should run plenty of routes tonight. I don’t expect many to look his way even though the Colts have allowed the 5th-most fantasy points to tight ends. He’s a solid sleeper on this slate.
Aaron Jones deserves consideration in all formats for Showdown. He’s had 17 and 21 touches in the last 2 games and has scored at least 18 fantasy points in 4 of 7 games this season. The Colts have been mediocre against the run and have allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to running backs this season. This is also a spot where the Vikings are playing as home favorites. Backup running back Ty Chandler will likely need to score a touchdown to find his way into the optimal lineup.
The Vikings D/ST is firmly in play here. They have an elite defense and can put pressure on the quarterback. While I love Joe Flacco, he tends to take a lot of chances, which could result in turnovers. Kicker Will Reichard is also a strong option, as he’s made at least 2 field goals in 5 of his last 6 games.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
I love this slate. There are great options on both sides of the ball. I don’t expect to have much exposure to the Colts’ defense or kicker, but I do like the Vikings’ defense and kicker. The players that I want to be overweight on in tournaments are Jonathan Taylor and T.J. Hockenson. I also love Justin Jefferson at MVP/CPT.
Colts vs. Vikings DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | MIN | RB | 21.17 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 2.21 | $12,000 | 1.76 |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | WR | 21.05 | $11,600 | $17,400 | 1.81 | $16,500 | 1.28 |
| Sam Darnold | MIN | QB | 19.85 | $10,000 | $15,000 | 1.99 | $14,000 | 1.42 |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND | RB | 17.42 | $10,600 | $15,900 | 1.64 | $15,500 | 1.12 |
| Joe Flacco | IND | QB | 15.79 | $9,800 | $14,700 | 1.61 | $13,500 | 1.17 |
| Josh Downs | IND | WR | 15.00 | $8,000 | $12,000 | 1.88 | $11,000 | 1.36 |
| Michael Pittman | IND | WR | 12.85 | $7,800 | $11,700 | 1.65 | $10,000 | 1.29 |
| Jordan Addison | MIN | WR | 9.14 | $6,200 | $9,300 | 1.47 | $10,500 | 0.87 |
| T.J. Hockenson | MIN | TE | 8.90 | $6,600 | $9,900 | 1.35 | $9,500 | 0.94 |
| Will Reichard | MIN | K | 7.84 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.57 | $9,000 | 0.87 |
| Matt Gay | IND | K | 7.04 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.47 | $8,000 | 0.88 |
| Vikings | MIN | DST | 6.58 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.27 | $9,000 | 0.73 |
| Jalen Nailor | MIN | WR | 6.02 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.51 | $7,500 | 0.80 |
| Adonai Mitchell | IND | WR | 5.92 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 1.97 | $8,500 | 0.70 |
| Alec Pierce | IND | WR | 5.57 | $5,600 | $8,400 | 0.99 | $9,500 | 0.59 |
| Colts | IND | DST | 5.51 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.53 | $8,000 | 0.69 |
| Ty Chandler | MIN | RB | 4.19 | $2,600 | $3,900 | 1.61 | $8,500 | 0.49 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | IND | TE | 3.74 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 2.34 | $6,500 | 0.58 |
| Trey Sermon | IND | RB | 2.83 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 0.88 | $7,500 | 0.38 |
| Kylen Granson | IND | TE | 2.66 | $1,400 | $2,100 | 1.90 | $5,500 | 0.48 |
| Drew Ogletree | IND | TE | 2.27 | $600 | $900 | 3.78 | $5,500 | 0.41 |
| Johnny Mundt | MIN | TE | 2.17 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 1.81 | $6,000 | 0.36 |
| Josh Oliver | MIN | TE | 1.72 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 0.86 | $7,000 | 0.25 |
Fantasy Sleepers
T.J. Hockenson: $6,600 DK / $9,500 FD
DFS players don’t like to spend up on tight ends and don’t trust players coming back from injuries. T.J. Hockenson is making his season debut. If you remember back to last season, he played way more than expected when he would return from injury. I’m not sure he’ll see a full complement of snaps, but he’ll be on the field in key situations and certainly in the red zone. I love the matchup against the Colts, who have allowed the 3rd-most fantasy points to tight ends.
Colts vs. Vikings Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 20-10
Michael Pittman more than 4.5 receptions (1.57x) – Sleeper Fantasy
We got back on track with a win on Thursday to bring our season record to 20-10. As noted earlier, all of the pass catchers on the Colts see their prospects improve with Joe Flacco under center. He’s an accurate pocket passer who doesn’t mind throwing the ball down the field. Michael Pittman has had a 19% target share with Flacco under center, and this could be a good game script for the Colts’ passing attack. On the season, the Vikings have allowed the 2nd-most receptions to wide receivers.
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Image Credit: Getty Images
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and Pro Football Focus