The NFL DFS Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Cowboys vs. Giants
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Cowboys vs. Giants, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks that we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites, like Sleeper Fantasy, ahead of this Thursday Night Football matchup. To build the best lineups possible, check out LineupHQ, which is my favorite NFL DFS optimizer in the industry.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Cowboys vs. Giants
We’ve had a wild start to the NFL season. The big favorites have been losing regularly, while we have a few surprise teams that are undefeated. The Cowboys are coming off back-to-back home losses. They nearly completed a comeback against the Ravens but continue to find themselves in big holes early. The Giants picked up their first win of the season, and it came on the road against a talented Browns defense. Like I said, the NFL has been wild this season. These division rivals will square off on Thursday night in a game that features a spread of 5.5 points and a total of 45.5 points.
Key Injuries
Darius Slayton – Questionable
Dallas Cowboys Preview
While I wouldn’t call this a must-win for the Cowboys, it will be an uphill climb if they fall to 1-3 on the season. Many thought the Cowboys would move on from Mike McCarthy in the offseason. Surprisingly, Jerry Jones stuck with his head coach. After the poor start, McCarthy is certainly in the hot seat. Dak Prescott is coming off a huge fantasy outing against the Ravens, but it was the perfect game script for this passing attack. The Cowboys got behind early, and the Ravens were fine playing a shell defense. This week, he squares off against the Giants, who are right around the league average in PFF’s defensive pass grades, EPA against the pass, and fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Prescott is a strong option in all formats, but his lack of rushing upside makes him a better utility play on this slate.
We have a full-on timeshare in this backfield. Through the first three games, Rico Dowdle narrowly leads Ezekiel Elliott in snaps and opportunities. As if a timeshare isn’t bad enough, Deuce Vaughn has had 9 opportunities in the last couple of weeks. The Giants have only given up a single rushing touchdown to running backs this season but are allowing 5.4 yards per carry. This is certainly an enticing matchup if you feel particularly good about Dowdle or Elliott. I’m not sure I want to take the risk, so I will be hoping the Cowboys’ scores come through the air.
Let’s take a look at the wideout usage for Dallas through the first three games:
CeeDee Lamb: 80% route percentage, 18% target rate, 25% air yards share
Brandin Cooks: 77% route percentage, 12% target rate, 19% air yards share
Jalen Tolbert: 77% route percentage, 12% target rate, 21% air yards share
Jake Ferguson: 63% route percentage, 19% target rate, 21% air yards share
The Cowboys run a lot of 3-receiver sets, and when they do, we see a lot of CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, and Jalen Tolbert. While Lamb is still the alpha receiver in this offense, Cooks and Tolbert have each seen at least 19% of the team’s air yards. The Giants haven’t been particularly bad against wide receivers this season, but they have faced the Vikings, Commanders, and Browns. This will be the most explosive offense that they have faced. It’s also worth noting that three of their cornerbacks are nursing injuries ahead of Thursday’s game. Lamb is viable at MVP and CPT, but I don’t mind mixing in Cooks and Tolbert in tournaments.
Jake Ferguson has some solid usage in his first two games of the season. He has a higher target rate than Lamb and has seen 21% of the team’s air yards. Tight ends tend to get. overlooked on Showdown slates because their salaries are so much higher than we typically see on full slates. The Cowboys’ defense has not been good this season, but any defense is viable when facing Daniel Jones. The key for Dallas in this game is to build a lead early. Kicker Brandon Aubrey is one of the best in the league and one of the safest value plays for this slate.
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New York Giants Preview
The Giants aren’t a good football team, but they did beat the Browns in Cleveland last week. If they can beat the Cowboys at home, hopes will be alive in New York once again. Daniel Jones has gotten a lot of flack over the last couple of seasons. After signing that massive contract, it’s hard to say the flack isn’t justified. To his credit, he has scored 18 and 19 fantasy points in the last two games. We thought the Cowboys had an elite defense coming into the season, but they are currently 24th in PFF’s grade against the pass and 28th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. It sounds gross, but the rushing upside for Jones makes him a viable option at MVP and CPT.
In a time where timeshares are common in most backfields, Devin Singletary has handled 80% of the running back touches for the Giants. On the season, he has averaged 17.3 opportunities and 85 yards from scrimmage per game. Despite losing a pair of fumbles, it doesn’t look like his role is going to diminish anytime soon. I expect the Cowboys to improve against the run at some point, but they are currently dead last in PFF’s grade against the run, EPA against the run, and fantasy points allowed to running backs. Singletary looks like a strong option on Thursday night. Tyrone Tracy will get a few opportunities, but there’s not a clear path for him to pay off his $2,800 price point on DraftKings.
I could simplify things and say Malik Nabers is getting all of the usage for the Giants, but let’s take a look at all of their wideouts:
Malik Nabers: 92% route percentage, 35% target rate, 58% air yards share
Darius Slayton: 74% route percentage, 10% target rate, 15% air yards share
Wan’Dale Robinson: 70% route percentage, 22% target rate, 15% air yards share
Theo Johnson: 66% route percentage, 6% target rate, 6% air yards share
Nabers not only has a 35% target share and a 58% air yards share in this offense but has been the first read on 58% of pass attempts. I foolishly shied away from targeting him last week against the Browns, and he came up with another huge game. After catching 18 of 30 targets for 205 yards and 3 touchdowns in the last couple of games, how do we make a case to fade him on this Showdown slate? Perhaps the Cowboys use bracket coverage on him, but I will continue to play Nabers until the usage slows down.
Darius Slayton is questionable for this game, so we’ll have to keep an eye on his availability. He has run a route on 74% of dropbacks, so his absence could really pave the way for Jalin Hyatt ($600 on DraftKings). Wan’Dale Robinson has an extremely low aDOT and is unlikely to get targets in the red zone, but he has a 22% target share on the season. He’s viable given the cheap price point and low ownership projection. Theo Johnson is out there running wind sprints. With a 6% target rate and a 6% air yards share, he’ll likely need a touchdown to be relevant on this slate.
The Giants’ defense has been mediocre against the run and the pass. That’s an improvement from last season, but they haven’t exactly faced the best offenses in the first three games of the season. I will note that they have the 6th best pass rush grade on PFF, so perhaps they can put some pressure on Dak Prescott. With Graham Gano on injured reserve, Greg Joseph will be New York’s kicker for the time being.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
While a Cowboys onslaught is awfully enticing on this slate, I love how concentrated the Giants’ offense has been this season. We know the running back touches are going to Devin Singletary, we know the targets are going to Malik Nabers, and we know Daniel Jones can make plays with his legs. Despite the low total, I plan to be underweight on the defenses and overweight on both passing attacks.
Cowboys vs. Giants DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | WR | 22.47 | $11,800 | $17,700 | 1.90 | $14,500 | 1.55 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | QB | 21.59 | $10,400 | $15,600 | 2.08 | $16,000 | 1.35 |
| Malik Nabers | NYG | WR | 18.59 | $10,800 | $16,200 | 1.72 | $15,000 | 1.24 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | QB | 17.18 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 1.83 | $13,000 | 1.32 |
| Devin Singletary | NYG | RB | 15.39 | $8,200 | $12,300 | 1.88 | $12,000 | 1.28 |
| Jake Ferguson | DAL | TE | 13.88 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 1.98 | $9,500 | 1.46 |
| Brandin Cooks | DAL | WR | 10.73 | $6,800 | $10,200 | 1.58 | $10,500 | 1.02 |
| Wan’Dale Robinson | NYG | WR | 9.82 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 2.05 | $10,000 | 0.98 |
| Rico Dowdle | DAL | RB | 9.79 | $6,400 | $9,600 | 1.53 | $8,000 | 1.22 |
| Giants | NYG | DST | 8.48 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 2.36 | $8,500 | 1.00 |
| Brandon Aubrey | DAL | K | 7.92 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.58 | $9,000 | 0.88 |
| Jalen Tolbert | DAL | WR | 7.85 | $5,800 | $8,700 | 1.35 | $8,000 | 0.98 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | DAL | RB | 7.47 | $6,200 | $9,300 | 1.20 | $11,500 | 0.65 |
| Greg Joseph | NYG | K | 7.36 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.67 | $8,500 | 0.87 |
| Darius Slayton | NYG | WR | 6.10 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 1.91 | $7,500 | 0.81 |
| Cowboys | DAL | DST | 5.82 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.08 | $9,000 | 0.65 |
| Theo Johnson | NYG | TE | 4.61 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 1.92 | $6,000 | 0.77 |
| Tyrone Tracy | NYG | RB | 4.24 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 1.51 | $6,500 | 0.65 |
| Deuce Vaughn | DAL | RB | 3.26 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 2.72 | $6,000 | 0.54 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | DAL | TE | 2.60 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 2.60 | $7,500 | 0.35 |
| KaVontae Turpin | DAL | WR | 2.37 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 0.59 | $7,000 | 0.34 |
| Jalin Hyatt | NYG | WR | 1.97 | $600 | $900 | 3.28 | $5,500 | 0.36 |
| Daniel Bellinger | NYG | TE | 1.91 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 1.19 | $7,000 | 0.27 |
| Hunter Luepke | DAL | RB | 1.61 | $800 | $1,200 | 2.01 | $6,500 | 0.25 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Jake Ferguson: $7,000 DK / $9,500 FD
Who wants to pay $7,000 DK / $9,500 FD for a tight end on a Showdown slate that features Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and Malik Nabers? The answer to that question is very few people. It doesn’t look like Ferguson is garnering much ownership despite logging a 19% target share and a 21% air yards share in the two games he has been active.
Cowboys vs. Giants Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 8-2
Brandon Aubrey more than 1.5 field goals made (1.49x) – Sleeper Fantasy
I love the 8-2 start that we have had this season. Do you know how people run marathons and pace themselves? I’ve always thought… why not start fast, run fast in the middle, and then finish fast? That’s my plan with these Fantasy Pick’em plays this season. We aren’t slowing down anytime soon (at least hopefully). For Thursday’s game, we are going with Brandon Aubrey to make more than 1.5 field goals. He accomplished this feat in 11 of 17 regular season games last year and has made at least 2 field goals in each game so far this season. The Cowboys should be able to move the ball easily in this game, and knowing the Cowboys, they will likely settle for field goals at some point.
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Image Credit: Getty Images
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus