The NFL Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Cowboys vs. Niners
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Niners vs. Cowboys, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Sunday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Niners vs. Cowboys
Whether you are reading this before, during, or after the main slate, we are happy to have you here. If both of these teams play up to their potential, this could end up being one of the best games of the regular season and potentially a preview of the NFC Championship game. We shouldn’t get too far ahead of ourselves, but these are two of the best teams in the NFL, and they have been rivals for a very long time. This should be a competitive game, as it features a 3.5-point spread and a 45-point total.
Key Injuries
Deebo Samuel – Questionable
Jauan Jennings – Questionable
Eli Mitchell – Questionable
San Francisco 49ers Preview
The Niners have been unstoppable this season. They currently have the best offense in the NFL and a top-five defense. Their offense will be put to the test this week, as they square off against the Cowboys. Even without Trevon Diggs, this is a tremendous pass defense. On the season, the Cowboys are ranked first in pass DVOA, first in pass EPA, and first in pressure rate. Is that any good? With that said, this is a showdown slate, and quarterbacks are always viable in this situation. Brock Purdy has a good offensive line, he’s never asked to do too much on his own, and he might have the best set of weapons in the NFL. He’s not my favorite Captain or MVP, but still an excellent option in all formats.
There are two big injuries to monitor in the receiving corps — Deebo Samuel and Jauan Jennings are both listed as questionable after missing last week’s game against the Cardinals. If Samuel is out, even more of the offense will flow through Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. Over the last two seasons with Samuel out, Aiyuk has averaged four more fantasy points per game, and Kittle has averaged 11 more fantasy points per game. If Samuel is active, he becomes one of the more intriguing plays of the slate. If the Niners are short-handed at receiver again, we can certainly look to the likes of Ronnie Bell, Ray-Ray McCloud, and even Willie Snead for value.
Christian McCaffrey has already scored seven touchdowns this season. He’s essentially an RB1 mixed with a WR2, and he has the highest projection of any player in this game. We did see Elijah Mitchell get more involved in Week 3 against the Giants, but he missed last week’s game and is listed as questionable for this one. Given the opponent and low spread, we can expect a heavy dose of McCaffrey in this game. If Mitchell is active, I don’t hate the idea of rostering both running backs on DraftKings.
The Niners defense is an intriguing play, especially since they are facing a good offense. At this price, I can’t imagine too many people will be clicking on them for showdown. We’ve seen them shut down Dak Prescott in the past, and they might be able to force the Cowboys into obvious passing situations.
Dallas Cowboys Preview
The Cowboys had a brutal performance in Week 3, but bounced back in a big way with a 38-3 win over the Patriots last week. Dak Prescott has been more of a game manager than we’ve seen from him in the past. He’s not looking to force the ball downfield, and the Cowboys have the fifth-highest run percentage this season. Prescott has yet to throw for more than 260 yards and has yet to crack the 20-fantasy point mark. The underwhelming production could continue against the Niners, who are ranked sixth in DVOA against the pass and fourth in pressure rate. He’s still a strong option, but would likely need a rushing touchdown to be the optimal Captain and MVP play.
CeeDee Lamb leads the Cowboys in every receiving category, including target share (22%) and air yards share (32%). He’s also had three rushing attempts in the last two games, so the Cowboys are clearly looking for ways to get him the ball. Brandin Cooks and Michael Gallup round out the receiving corps, soaking up 15% and 12% of the targets, respectively. While the Niners have a good pass defense, they have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to wide receivers (likely due to game script). Jake Ferguson doesn’t have the highest snap share, but the Cowboys target him often (17%) when he’s on the field. If you are looking for punt plays on Dallas, you can consider Luke Schoonmaker at $200 on DraftKings.
Tony Pollard is second only to C-Mac in expected fantasy points at the running back position (min. two games). He’s coming off of his worst game of the season, but wasn’t asked to do much in the blowout win over the Patriots. He still has one of the biggest workloads of any running back in the league and should be involved in the passing game as well. The matchup is better than you might expect, as the Niners are ranked 23rd in rush DVOA and 28th in rush EPA this season. Rico Dowdle ($3,000) and Deuce Vaughn ($2,200) will mix in every now and then, but they aren’t cheap enough to make my single-entry and small-field tournament builds.
The Cowboys defense is a tough decision point. On the one hand, they have been the best defense in football this season. On the other hand, the Niners are all about limiting mistakes and getting the ball out quickly. There’s a path to success for Dallas, but I do prefer San Francisco if choosing between the defenses.
Roster Construction Ideas
It’s hard for me to see either team win this game in blowout fashion. Perhaps the Niners can build a lead and force a couple of turnovers, but both of these quarterbacks have done a great job of protecting the ball. A lot of the build strategy will come down to the availability of Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings, and Elijah Mitchell. If they are all out, it’s easier to load up on the Niners side of the ball given the value available and how concentrated their offense would become.
Cowboys-Niners DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | RB | 22.25 | $11,800 | $17,700 | 1.89 | $17,500 | 1.27 |
| Tony Pollard | DAL | RB | 18.35 | $10,200 | $15,300 | 1.80 | $15,500 | 1.18 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | QB | 17.61 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 1.87 | $14,500 | 1.21 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | QB | 16.42 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 1.71 | $14,000 | 1.17 |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | WR | 16.42 | $10,000 | $15,000 | 1.64 | $13,000 | 1.26 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | SF | WR | 14.48 | $8,400 | $12,600 | 1.72 | $15,000 | 0.97 |
| Deebo Samuel | SF | WR | 14.42 | $7,600 | $11,400 | 1.90 | $12,500 | 1.15 |
| Brandin Cooks | DAL | WR | 9.74 | $5,600 | $8,400 | 1.74 | $8,000 | 1.22 |
| George Kittle | SF | TE | 9.38 | $6,400 | $9,600 | 1.47 | $10,000 | 0.94 |
| Jake Ferguson | DAL | TE | 8.41 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.68 | $8,500 | 0.99 |
| Michael Gallup | DAL | WR | 8.31 | $4,600 | $6,900 | 1.81 | $8,500 | 0.98 |
| Brandon Aubrey | DAL | K | 7.52 | $4,200 | $6,300 | 1.79 | $9,000 | 0.84 |
| Jake Moody | SF | K | 6.86 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.56 | $9,000 | 0.76 |
| 49ers | SF | DST | 6.18 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.55 | $9,500 | 0.65 |
| Elijah Mitchell | SF | RB | 4.57 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 1.63 | $7,500 | 0.61 |
| Rico Dowdle | DAL | RB | 4.44 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 1.48 | $7,500 | 0.59 |
| Cowboys | DAL | DST | 4.36 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 1.28 | $10,500 | 0.42 |
| Jauan Jennings | SF | WR | 3.14 | $3,800 | $5,700 | 0.83 | $8,000 | 0.39 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | SF | WR | 2.72 | $200 | $300 | 13.60 | $6,000 | 0.45 |
| Deuce Vaughn | DAL | RB | 2.12 | $2,200 | $3,300 | 0.96 | $7,000 | 0.30 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | DAL | TE | 1.81 | $200 | $300 | 9.05 | $5,500 | 0.33 |
| Ronnie Bell | SF | WR | 1.52 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 1.27 | $6,500 | 0.23 |
| Jalen Tolbert | DAL | WR | 1.10 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 0.69 | $7,000 | 0.16 |
| KaVontae Turpin | DAL | WR | 1.08 | $1,400 | $2,100 | 0.77 | $6,500 | 0.17 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Jake Moody: $4,400 DK / $6,600 FD
Brandon Aubrey: $4,200 DK / $6,300 FD
This game sets up really well for both kickers. We have two elite offenses and two elite defenses. While I expect the Cowboys and Niners to be able to move the ball, they could have trouble scoring once they get down near the red zone. This could be a rare slate where the double-kicker lineup ends up paying dividends.
Cowboys vs. Niners Player Props
Jake Ferguson less than 9.5 fantasy points (1.60x) – Sleeper
I generally side with overs, but I’ll take less than on Ferguson’s fantasy points in this one. Again, he’s not playing a ton of snaps and is only running a route on 54% of drop backs. It might be hard to sustain a 17% target share when you are barely playing half the passing snaps. On top of that, the Niners have allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season.