The NFL Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Cowboys vs. Seahawks
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In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Cowboys vs. Seahawks, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Thursday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Cowboys vs. Seahawks
Week 13 is officially here. While it’s sad that we are nearly two-thirds of the way through the season, at least we still have 6 weeks left of regular season football.
We kick off the week with the Cowboys and Seahawks, who both have a lot on the line in this game. The Cowboys are 2 games behind the Eagles in the NFC East and still have an upcoming matchup against them, so there’s still a path for them to win the division. The Seahawks are sitting at 6-5 in the standings and right on the bubble for a wildcard spot in the NFC. This game features an 8.5-point spread and a 47.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Kenneth Walker – Doubtful
Dallas Cowboys Preview
Say what you want about the Cowboys in big games, but they have absolutely beat up weaker competition this season, especially at home. In fact, they have averaged 41 points per game at home while only allowing an average of 12 points to their opponents. Dak Prescott has averaged 29 fantasy points per game at home and has shown a willingness to scramble more in the last couple of months. He should continue to have success this week, as the Seahawks are well below league average in DVOA against the pass and fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Prescott’s high ceiling puts him on the short list of potential MVP and CPT targets.
The Cowboys are a much better team when they get CeeDee Lamb the ball. They’ve made an emphasis to do just that since their bye week. We’ve seen some massive fantasy outings over the last 5 games — 17, 16, 43, 32, and 44 fantasy points (DK scoring). The Seahawks have a talented cornerback in Devon Witherspoon, but the Cowboys move Lamb all over the field. And even if these two square off quite a bit, I like Lamb’s chances against anyone in single coverage.
Brandin Cooks has scored a touchdown in 4 of the last 6 games and could fly under the radar given his hefty price tag. Michael Gallup has underwhelmed all season which has led to more playing time for Jalen Tolbert. He’s still the WR4 in this offense, but he has at least 2 receptions in 4 straight games. If punting with one of these receivers, I’ll side with Tolbert over Gallup. Jake Ferguson has a 14% target share this season and is a big red-zone threat. Much like Cooks, he could fly under the radar given his price.
The Cowboys have an elite offense, but their running game hasn’t been as good as past years. Tony Pollard has failed as the chalk far too many times this season. With that said, he’s scored a touchdown in back-to-back games and has averaged 5.1 and 6.1 yards per carry, respectively, in those outings. The Seahawks are 25th in rush EPA and 29th in fantasy points allowed to running backs, so this is certainly a breakout spot for #20. Rico Dowdle will mix in as well, but he likely needs a touchdown to be of note on this slate.
As noted earlier, the Cowboys have held opponents to 12 points per game at home this season while averaging 16.2 fantasy points per game. They are firmly in play against a turnover-prone quarterback and a team that is missing their top running back. Kicker Brandon Aubrey has a clear path to double-digit fantasy points.
Seattle Seahawks Preview
Geno Smith was one of the best stories in football last season, but the magic has dissipated this season. The efficiency has taken a big dip, and he has 10 turnovers compared to only 12 passing touchdowns. To make matters worse, he’s been dealing with an elbow injury on his throwing arm. And to make matters much worse, the Seahawks are large underdogs against the Cowboys, who are ranked 1st in pressure rate and 6th in DVOA against the pass. Quarterbacks are typically easy plays for most Showdown slates, but Smith is far from a sure thing in this matchup.
DK Metcalf continues to be one of my favorite targets each week. The underlying usage metrics are too good to ignore. He has a 22% target share and a 43% air yards share on the season. He has yet to have a true breakout game, but he has seen at least 9 targets in 5 of his last 6 games. I’ll have exposure to both, but I do side with Metcalf over Tyler Lockett if choosing between the two. Lockett has been banged up the last few weeks and only has 8 receptions for 81 yards in the last 2 games combined.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has made some highlight reel catches this season and has cleared 40 receiving yards in 4 straight games. The upside hasn’t exactly been there, but there are certainly paths for him to find his way onto the optimal lineup. Jake Bobo, Noah Fant, Colby Parkinson, and Will Dissly will all see snaps, but they are far from priorities. Parkinson is cheap enough that he can pay off his salary with a catch or two, but the others will need a touchdown to be difference-makers.
Kenneth Walker is not expected to play tonight, which means another start for Zach Charbonnet. He wasn’t particularly efficient against the Niners last week and has a brutal draw against the Cowboys, but he’s going to be on the field a ton and has a path to 20 touches. Most importantly, he should see a lot of dump-offs from Smith. DeeJay Dallas will mix in as well and could see some serious garbage time if this game gets out of hand. He’s only $1,200 on DraftKings.
The Seahawks defense will have their hands full in this one. The Cowboys have one of the best offensive lines in football, and again, Dallas has averaged 41 points per game at home. I’ll take my chances with a full fade. Kicker Jason Myers has a little more appeal, but if the Seahawks fall behind early, they might not settle for field goals the rest of the way.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
The Cowboys onslaught is absolutely in play on this slate. On FanDuel, the 4-1 builds are enticing, and on DraftKings, the 5-1 builds look tasty. We haven’t seen a very high floor (or ceiling) from Smith this season, so my favorite bring-back would be Charbonnet or one of the pass catchers like Metcalf. In these Dallas builds, you can certainly include the defense and the kicker.
Cowboys-Seahawks DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | DAL | QB | 22.43 | $11,000 | $16,500 | 2.04 | $17,500 | 1.28 |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | WR | 21.17 | $11,400 | $17,100 | 1.86 | $16,000 | 1.32 |
| Tony Pollard | DAL | RB | 20.48 | $9,800 | $14,700 | 2.09 | $14,500 | 1.41 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | QB | 18.87 | $9,200 | $13,800 | 2.05 | $14,000 | 1.35 |
| Zach Charbonnet | SEA | RB | 16.88 | $6,800 | $10,200 | 2.48 | $11,500 | 1.47 |
| D.K. Metcalf | SEA | WR | 16.25 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 1.69 | $12,000 | 1.35 |
| Tyler Lockett | SEA | WR | 15.62 | $7,200 | $10,800 | 2.17 | $11,000 | 1.42 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | WR | 9.98 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.92 | $8,000 | 1.25 |
| Jake Ferguson | DAL | TE | 9.95 | $6,200 | $9,300 | 1.60 | $9,000 | 1.11 |
| Brandin Cooks | DAL | WR | 9.64 | $8,000 | $12,000 | 1.21 | $10,500 | 0.92 |
| Brandon Aubrey | DAL | K | 8.47 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.76 | $9,500 | 0.89 |
| Cowboys | DAL | DST | 8.11 | $5,600 | $8,400 | 1.45 | $10,000 | 0.81 |
| Jason Myers | SEA | K | 6.47 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.47 | $8,500 | 0.76 |
| Noah Fant | SEA | TE | 5.19 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 1.62 | $7,000 | 0.74 |
| Michael Gallup | DAL | WR | 5.13 | $3,800 | $5,700 | 1.35 | $7,500 | 0.68 |
| Rico Dowdle | DAL | RB | 4.71 | $4,200 | $6,300 | 1.12 | $7,500 | 0.63 |
| Jalen Tolbert | DAL | WR | 4.30 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 1.43 | $7,000 | 0.61 |
| Seahawks | SEA | DST | 4.28 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 1.26 | $8,000 | 0.54 |
| DeeJay Dallas | SEA | RB | 3.78 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 3.15 | $7,000 | 0.54 |
| KaVontae Turpin | DAL | WR | 3.34 | $2,600 | $3,900 | 1.28 | $6,500 | 0.51 |
| Colby Parkinson | SEA | TE | 3.11 | $800 | $1,200 | 3.89 | $5,500 | 0.57 |
| Jake Bobo | SEA | WR | 2.15 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 1.34 | $6,000 | 0.36 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | DAL | TE | 2.13 | $1,800 | $2,700 | 1.18 | $6,000 | 0.36 |
| Will Dissly | SEA | TE | 1.75 | $1,400 | $2,100 | 1.25 | $6,000 | 0.29 |
| Jalen Brooks | DAL | WR | 1.16 | $600 | $900 | 1.93 | $5,500 | 0.21 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Jake Ferguson: $6,200 DK / $9,000 FD
Here’s the thing….everyone will spend their salary cap on Prescott, Pollard, Lamb, and Smith. Naturally, this is going to create a lot of stars-and-scrubs type of lineups. Not many will be willing to pay this price for a tight end, especially those that build lineups by hand. Ferguson is coming off of quiet games the last 2 weeks, but he scored 13, 22, and 15 fantasy points, respectively, in the previous 3 games. The matchup isn’t imposing, and he’s a nice pivot off of the other Cowboys pass catchers.
Cowboys vs. Seahawks Player Pick’em
Season record: 24-15
Zach Charbonnet more than 18.5 Receiving Yards (1.75x) – Sleeper*
I finally went back and tallied up the fantasy pick’em results from all of these Showdown articles. We are 24-15 on the season and a whopping 21-7 over the last 28 games. I made mention of the hot streak, but it’s nice to actually have the numbers to back it up. Let’s keep it rolling with Charbonnet to get more than 18.5 receiving yards. This one is pretty simple; I expect the Seahawks to be trailing in this game, and he has very little competition for touches in this backfield. He has seen 15 targets over the last 3 games and could easily get more than 18.5 receiving yards on 1 or 2 receptions.