The NFL Grind Down: Monday Night Football - Jaguars vs. Bengals
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In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Jaguars vs. Bengals, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Monday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Jaguars vs. Bengals
Welcome back to another primetime showdown breakdown. I hope everyone had a great main slate on Sunday. Mine was anticlimactic, as I broke even in DFS. We now turn our attention to the Monday night game between the Jaguars and Bengals. The Jaguars have a clear path to the AFC South title, while the Bengals are looking to cling onto any playoff hope that they have left. They are sitting at 5-6 and will be without Joe Burrow the rest of the season. Tonight’s game features a 10-point spread and a 40-point total.
Key Injuries
Travis Etienne – Questionable
Jacksonville Jaguars Preview
Much like last year, Trevor Lawrence is playing his best in the second half of the season. After everyone was quick to point out his lack of upside, he has scored 28.5 and 32.2 fantasy points in his last 2 games. Some of that was thanks to 3 rushing touchdowns, which obviously isn’t sustainable given the fact that he didn’t have any rushing touchdowns in his first 9 games of the season. He draws an exploitable matchup against the Bengals, who are 18th in sacks per game and 24th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Lawrence is viable at MVP and CPT, but not my favorite option at those multiplier spots.
I have talked about these splits in my other articles and on my NFL show and need to point them out here. I struggle to know if there’s a causation to this correlation, but check out these splits with and without Zay Jones in the lineup.
- Calvin Ridley
- 5 games with Jones active: 22.4 fantasy points
- 6 games with Jones out: 7.5 fantasy points
- Christian Kirk
- 5 games with Jones active: 12.4 fantasy points
- 6 games with Jones out: 15.5 fantasy points
- Evan Engram
- 5 games with Jones active: 9.0 fantasy points
- 6 games with Jones out: 11.7 fantasy points
At the very least, the splits are interesting. For those wondering, Jones will be active tonight against the Bengals. It’s certainly a nice matchup, as the Bengals are 17th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and 30th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. I will likely have exposure to all four wideouts, but here is how I would rank them in terms of priority — Ridley, Engram, Kirk, and then Jones.
Travis Etienne is listed as questionable, but Doug Pederson said he expects him to play. Etienne is one of the few workhorse running backs left in the league, as Tank Bigsby has only recorded more than 3 touches twice this season. D’Ernest Johnson has actually played more snaps than Bigsby recently, but I’m not sure we can rely on him averaging 17 yards per reception moving forward. Etienne is a good candidate for 20+ touches as a home favorite against the Bengals, who are ranked 29th in DVOA against the run and 27th in rush EPA. As long as he’s active, he’s one of the top options on the slate.
The Jaguars defense should be licking their chops for a matchup against Jake Browning. If Jacksonville can build a lead early, it will force the Bengals to air it out. Kicker Brandon McManus has scored double-digit fantasy points in 6 of 11 games this season.
Cincinnati Bengals Preview
In his first full start with the Bengals, Jake Browning completed 19-of-26 passes for 227 yards and a touchdown. He also threw an interception and fumbled (wasn’t lost), but it was a reasonable enough start, especially given the fact that it was against the Steelers. His range of outcomes are quite wide here, but he should have all of his weapons in the lineup and he’s facing a Jaguars team that has allowed the 5th most fantasy points to quarterbacks. He’s also playing for a team that is a 10-point underdog on the road, so he’ll certainly get his chances in this one. I plan to be overweight on the field when it comes to showdown.
Tee Higgins wasn’t active last week, so we shouldn’t put too much stock into who Browning targeted the most against the Steelers. I wouldn’t expect the target shares to change much from what we saw with Joe Burrow under center. Ja’Marr Chase should lead the way, Higgins should be a close second, and then you have Tyler Boyd and the tight ends. The Jaguars are somehow 8th in DVOA against the pass, yet they give up a lot of fantasy points to both quarterbacks and wide receivers. I don’t have any super strong takes on these wideouts. I’ll likely let salary decide who I end up pairing with Browning.
Joe Mixon needs to have a big game in order for the Bengals to walk away with a win. In order to take pressure off Browning, the Bengals will need to run the ball effectively and the game will need to stay close throughout. The problem is that Mixon struggled last week against the Steelers and now faces a team that is 1st in the NFL in DVOA against the run. We usually don’t see a big discrepancy between DVOA and EPA, but it’s worth noting that the Jaguars are 15th in rush EPA this season. I’m on board with Mixon as a play here, as he could be heavily involved in the passing game as well.
The Bengals have gotten a decent amount of pressure this season, but they are only 18th in sacks per game, while the Jaguars have allowed the 3rd lowest pressure rate. Anything can happen in this showdown games, but I’m not prioritizing the Bengals defense. Kicker Evan McPherson is very good and there’s a chance a few Cincinnati drives stall out in Jacksonville territory.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
For Sunday night’s game, I didn’t see a path for the Chiefs onslaught to be successful. For tonight’s game, I do see a path for the Jaguars onslaught to be successful. Trevor Lawrence and his pass catchers are in good spots, Travis Etienne has a path for 20+ touches, the defense might be facing a pass-heavy opponent, and the kicker has been solid all season. We could easily see a lot of Cincinnati’s production come from a single player like Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, or Joe Mixon. I won’t be going with the onslaught route in my Jake Browning lineups, as I want to pair him with at least one of his teammates.
Jaguars-Bengals DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | QB | 19.45 | $10,800 | $16,200 | 1.80 | $14,500 | 1.34 |
| Travis Etienne | JAX | RB | 15.90 | $10,200 | $15,300 | 1.56 | $16,000 | 0.99 |
| Ja’Marr Chase | CIN | WR | 14.55 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 1.55 | $15,000 | 0.97 |
| Jake Browning | CIN | QB | 14.07 | $8,800 | $13,200 | 1.60 | $13,000 | 1.08 |
| Calvin Ridley | JAX | WR | 13.69 | $9,200 | $13,800 | 1.49 | $12,500 | 1.10 |
| Joe Mixon | CIN | RB | 12.82 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 1.83 | $13,500 | 0.95 |
| Christian Kirk | JAX | WR | 12.70 | $8,200 | $12,300 | 1.55 | $11,500 | 1.10 |
| Evan Engram | JAX | TE | 10.99 | $6,200 | $9,300 | 1.77 | $10,000 | 1.10 |
| Tee Higgins | CIN | WR | 9.89 | $7,600 | $11,400 | 1.30 | $10,500 | 0.94 |
| Jaguars | JAX | DST | 9.36 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.95 | $9,000 | 1.04 |
| Brandon McManus | JAX | K | 8.44 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.69 | $9,500 | 0.89 |
| Tyler Boyd | CIN | WR | 8.10 | $5,600 | $8,400 | 1.45 | $8,500 | 0.95 |
| Zay Jones | JAX | WR | 7.39 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.42 | $8,000 | 0.92 |
| Evan McPherson | CIN | K | 5.77 | $4,600 | $6,900 | 1.25 | $9,000 | 0.64 |
| D’Ernest Johnson | JAX | RB | 5.54 | $4,200 | $6,300 | 1.32 | $8,500 | 0.65 |
| Bengals | CIN | DST | 5.27 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 1.65 | $8,500 | 0.62 |
| Tanner Hudson | CIN | TE | 5.18 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.30 | $7,500 | 0.69 |
| Trenton Irwin | CIN | WR | 2.12 | $1,800 | $2,700 | 1.18 | $8,000 | 0.27 |
| Irv Smith | CIN | TE | 1.89 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 1.89 | $6,000 | 0.32 |
| Drew Sample | CIN | TE | 1.86 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 1.55 | $6,500 | 0.29 |
| Trayveon Williams | CIN | RB | 1.64 | $400 | $600 | 4.10 | $6,500 | 0.25 |
| Luke Farrell | JAX | TE | 1.51 | $2,600 | $3,900 | 0.58 | $6,000 | 0.25 |
| Tank Bigsby | JAX | RB | 0.85 | $2,200 | $3,300 | 0.39 | $8,000 | 0.11 |
| Andrei Iosivas | CIN | WR | 0.76 | $600 | $900 | 1.27 | $7,000 | 0.11 |
| Tim Jones | JAX | WR | 0.57 | $200 | $300 | 2.85 | $5,500 | 0.10 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Evan Engram: $6,200 DK / $10,000 FD
Engram isn’t going to be contrarian in this spot, but his price is high enough that it should keep ownership at a very reasonable level. He doesn’t have the best splits with Zay Jones active, but that could have been due to the matchups. This week he squares off against the Bengals, who have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to tight ends. Engram also has some positive touchdown regression coming, as he has yet to score this season despite catching 64-of-82 targets.
Jaguars vs. Bengals Player Pick’em
Season record: 26-15
Joe Mixon more than 2.5 receptions (1.47x) – Sleeper
Can’t stop, won’t stop. The props on showdown slates are now 26-15 on the season and 23-7 over the last 30 games. Austin Dillon hit the over on his receiving prop last night, and we are rolling with a similar one tonight. Joe Mixon has averaged 3.0 receptions per game this season and has at least 3 receptions in 7 of 11 games. If the game goes as expected, the Bengals are going to be trailing and forced to air it out. They will look to get the ball out quickly, which is good news for Mixon.