The NFL Grind Down: Sunday Morning Football - Jaguars vs. Falcons
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Jaguars vs. Falcons, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Sunday Morning Football matchup in London.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Jaguars vs. Falcons
It’s always fun to wake up on Sunday morning with an immediate football sweat and that’s exactly what we get to do this weekend. The Jaguars and Falcons are set to square off at Wembley Stadium in a game that features a 3-point spread and a 43-point total.
Key Injuries
Zay Jones – Out
Jamal Agnew – Questionable
Cordarrelle Patterson – Questionable
Jacksonville Jaguars Preview
London has essentially been a home away from home for the Jaguars. This will be their eighth game in Wembley Stadium, which is easily the most of any team in the league. While English fans may not care for our version of “football,” the ones that do show up will likely be rooting for the Jaguars. At the very least, this will at least feel like somewhat of a home game for Jacksonville. While the game features a low total, it surprisingly projects to have the sixth most plays of the week, according to the BLITZ.
A matchup against the Falcons sets up well for Jacksonville’s passing attack, as Atlanta is ranked 10th in rush DVOA and sixth in rush EPA this season. After being one of the most productive quarterbacks in the second half of last season, it’s a bit surprising to see Trevor Lawrence struggle early on, especially given his matchups against the Colts, Chiefs, and Texans. He has yet to throw for 300 yards and he only has one passing touchdown in the last two games combined. This is a good bounce-back spot, as the Falcons have the second-lowest pressure rate and a beatable secondary.
After making two costly mistakes in Week 1 and putting up a bagel in Week 2, it was frustrating to see Tank Bigsby steal a goal line touchdown from Travis Etienne last week. He now has two rushing touchdowns on the season compared to only one for Etienne. The rest of the running back usage has been dominated by Etienne, as he is averaging 16.3 rushing attempts per game and running a route on 54% of drop-backs. The problem is that he’s expensive and that the Falcons are much tougher against the run than they are against the pass. He’s still viable given his 20+ touch upside, but not a free square on this slate.
If you like narratives, this is a good one — Calvin Ridley gets to face his former team for the first time. Ridley got all of the buzz in the offseason and came out of the gates strong against the Colts, but has been quiet over the last two games. He still boasts a 22% target share and a 38% air yards share, making him an excellent option in all formats. With Zay Jones out, Christian Kirk will operate as the clear WR2. After struggling in the opener, he has caught 15 passes for 164 yards and a touchdown the last two weeks. Jamal Agnew will operate as the WR3 if he’s able to suit up. If he’s ruled out, Tim Jones ($400) and Jacob Harris ($200) could become nice punt plays on DraftKings.
Evan Engram is one of the more appealing tournament plays on this showdown slate. He’s a natural leverage play off of Ridley and he should be low-owned due to the fact that DFS player hate paying up for tight ends. Engram’s hefty salary on both sites will scare away the masses. He’s been more involved in the passing game each week and has an 18% target share on the season. With Jones out and Agnew questionable, even more targets could funnel his direction. The matchup sets up well for him, as the Falcons have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to tight ends through three games.
Thursday night was a good example of how NFL games don’t always play out the way we expect. The Packers dug themselves a big hole early, and that led to the Lions defense being able to capitalize on a pass-heavy game script. I generally don’t like to target defenses against teams that want to run the ball, but there’s a chance the Jaguars can build a lead and force Desmond Ridder to air it out a bit more. It always seems like there are extra field goals in these London games, so I don’t mind getting exposure to Brandon McManus.
Atlanta Falcons Preview
The Falcons have to be disappointed after back-to-back losses against the Lions and Packers. They were competitive most of the game against Detroit and were up 17-0 in the fourth quarter against Green Bay. They’ll look to bounce back against the Jaguars in London. This is a tricky spot because the Falcons want to run the ball as often as possible, yet the strength of the Jaguars defense is in their ability to stop the run. Knowing Arthur Smith, he’s not going to stray away from his game plan.
Finding a franchise quarterback in the NFL is extremely difficult. It’s still early, but most Falcons fans are ready to throw in the towel when it comes to Desmond Ridder. He had a nice fantasy outing against the Packers, but that seems like an anomaly more than anything. He ran for 39 yards and scored a touchdown on the ground. In the other two games, he has a total of three rushing attempts for two yards. He has struggled to get much of anything going through the air, even though he has two elite wideouts in Drake London and Kyle Pitts. I like the matchup, but this is a rare spot where a quarterback isn’t an auto-play in showdown.
On paper, these numbers look very enticing — Pitts has a 19% target share and a 35% air yards share. Unfortunately, context is needed. Many of the air yards that Pitts has racked up were on uncatchable throws and a 19% target share in this offense doesn’t mean that much. Through three games, he has nine receptions for 100 yards. With that said, it would certainly make sense that this would be the Pitts breakout game since he’s not on the main slate. London hasn’t been much better than Pitts, catching 8-of-14 targets for 98 yards and a touchdown in the first three weeks. Again, the matchup is great, but how much do we trust the duo of Smith (coach) and Ridder? Jonnu Smith and Mack Hollins will see a handful of targets as well, but are best suited as large-field tournament plays.
Now, let’s talk about the Falcons running backs. This is strength vs. strength, as the Falcons have a top-five rushing offense and the Jaguars have a top-five rushing defense. The Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier combo has averaged 26 carries and 7.7 targets per game so far this season. Imagine the workload these two would get if the Falcons could actually build a big lead. I still prefer Bijan over Allgeier given his higher target share and slightly higher carry share, but the salary difference between the two is notable. If you think the Falcons can win this game or even keep it close, you should consider rostering one or both of these running backs.
The Falcons have the second-lowest pressure rate in the NFL and the Jaguars’ offensive line has done a nice job in pass protection, but Lawrence does make the occasional mistake. I’m not going to roster Atlanta’s defense myself, but a case can be made for them if you are building 10 or more lineups. As noted earlier, both kickers are viable here.
Roster Construction Ideas
Based on the strength of these defenses (stopping the run), I like the idea of stacking the two passing games. The Jaguars should be able to move the ball through the air and should have a concentrated passing attack with Jones out, which makes stacking with Lawrence very easy. If they are able to build a lead, perhaps Smith will let Ridder air it out a bit more. We know the targets are going to three players in particular — London, Pitts, and Robinson.
The other intriguing build is with the idea that the Falcons are so good at running the ball that it doesn’t matter who they are facing. If they have success on the ground early and are able to build a lead, we could easily see 35+ touches for Robinson and Allgeier. Playing both running backs should be unique and then we can bring it back with players from the passing game on the Jaguars.
Jaguars-Falcons DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | RB | 19.03 | $11,000 | $16,500 | 1.73 | $15,500 | 1.23 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | QB | 17.75 | $10,000 | $15,000 | 1.78 | $15,000 | 1.18 |
| Travis Etienne | JAX | RB | 16.15 | $10,600 | $15,900 | 1.52 | $16,000 | 1.01 |
| Calvin Ridley | JAX | WR | 14.50 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 1.51 | $14,000 | 1.04 |
| Desmond Ridder | ATL | QB | 14.34 | $8,800 | $13,200 | 1.63 | $13,500 | 1.06 |
| Christian Kirk | JAX | WR | 13.61 | $8,000 | $12,000 | 1.70 | $12,500 | 1.09 |
| Drake London | ATL | WR | 12.00 | $6,800 | $10,200 | 1.76 | $12,000 | 1.00 |
| Evan Engram | JAX | TE | 10.60 | $7,200 | $10,800 | 1.47 | $9,500 | 1.12 |
| Kyle Pitts | ATL | TE | 9.52 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.83 | $8,000 | 1.19 |
| Tyler Allgeier | ATL | RB | 8.61 | $6,200 | $9,300 | 1.39 | $11,000 | 0.78 |
| Brandon McManus | JAX | K | 7.73 | $4,200 | $6,300 | 1.84 | $9,000 | 0.86 |
| Mack Hollins | ATL | WR | 7.38 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.54 | $8,000 | 0.92 |
| Younghoe Koo | ATL | K | 7.16 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.79 | $9,000 | 0.80 |
| Jaguars | JAX | DST | 6.18 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.24 | $9,500 | 0.65 |
| Jamal Agnew | JAX | WR | 5.70 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 2.04 | $7,000 | 0.81 |
| Falcons | ATL | DST | 5.68 | $3,800 | $5,700 | 1.49 | $8,500 | 0.67 |
| Jonnu Smith | ATL | TE | 4.88 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 2.44 | $7,000 | 0.70 |
| Tim Jones | JAX | WR | 3.72 | $400 | $600 | 9.30 | $5,000 | 0.74 |
| Tank Bigsby | JAX | RB | 3.48 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 1.09 | $8,500 | 0.41 |
| Khadarel Hodge | ATL | WR | 1.60 | $200 | $300 | 8.00 | $6,500 | 0.25 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | ATL | RB | 1.47 | $600 | $900 | 2.45 | $7,500 | 0.20 |
| D’Ernest Johnson | JAX | RB | 1.45 | $1,400 | $2,100 | 1.04 | $7,500 | 0.19 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Evan Engram – $7,200 DK / $10,800 FD
I’m not going to sugarcoat it, the fantasy sleepers have gotten off to a rough start in these showdown articles. We’ll look to get back on track with Engram. The fact that he’s priced up is going to lead to lower ownership and everyone is going to point to this being a Ridley revenge game. I certainly love Ridley as well, but Engram offers a nice leverage play (or supplemental play) in tournaments. He has an 18% target share on the season, he should have more targets funneled his way thanks to injuries, and the Falcons have been one of the worst teams at defending tight ends in the first three weeks.
Jaguars vs. Falcons Player Props
Trevor Lawrence over 237.5 passing yards (1.76x) – Sleeper
This was a fairly easy selection for me. As noted in the breakdown above, the best way to move the ball against the Falcons is through the air. On the season, Atlanta is ranked 22nd in DVOA against the pass and 10th in DVOA against the run. Additionally, they have the second-worst pressure rate. Lawrence should have plenty of time to find open receivers in this one and honestly, this number feels way too low. He has averaged 245 passing yards this season and averaged 242 passing yards last season.