The NFL Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Jaguars vs. Ravens
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In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Jaguars vs. Ravens, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Sunday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Jaguars vs. Ravens
We are back for a rare primetime game that features my beloved Jaguars. Both the Ravens and Jaguars have aspirations of winning their division and potentially doing a lot more in the playoffs. While this is an important game for both teams, Jacksonville can’t afford to lose any more ground to the Colts or the Texans. Both of these offenses are explosive, and both of these defenses are capable of shutting down opponents. I’m expecting this to be a competitive game throughout. The spread is set at 3.5 points and the game features a total of 42 points.
Key Injuries
Christian Kirk – Out
Jamal Agnew – Questionable
Jacksonville Jaguars Preview
Incredibly, Trevor Lawrence was able to play last week after suffering a gruesome ankle injury against the Bengals, but unfortunately, the team was unable to pick up a win against the Browns. They now return home to face the Ravens, who are ranked 2nd in DVOA against the pass and 2nd in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. This is certainly one of the toughest matchups that Lawrence has had all season, but his raw fantasy production makes him a strong option in all formats when it comes to this showdown slate.
Christian Kirk is on injured reserve, which opens up a lot of targets in this offense. Zay Jones saw a whopping 14 targets last week against the Browns but only finished with 5 receptions and 29 yards. It was not the most efficient outing, but the volume was encouraging. Calvin Ridley is now the clear WR1 in this offense but will draw extra attention from this Ravens’ secondary. He also struggled with efficiency last week, catching only 4-of-13 targets for 53 yards. Both are viable in this spot, as the Ravens are only 12th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.
Parker Washington has taken over the slot with Kirk out, and he has made the most of his opportunities in the last 2 games. During that stretch, he has caught 8-of-9 targets for 88 yards and 2 touchdowns. We can’t expect him to score a touchdown every week, but he’s cheaper than both Jones and Ridley. Jamal Agnew could return for this game and is only $200 on DraftKings. If he’s active, he becomes one of the top point-per-dollar plays on the slate. Evan Engram is coming off his two best games of the season but is facing a team that has allowed the 9th-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Not only that, but his recent play has led to an elevated price point.
Do you remember last year when Travis Etienne didn’t have more than 3 receptions all season? That hasn’t been an issue this year, as he has caught at least 4 passes in 6 of 13 games. He doesn’t have much competition for touches in this backfield, and he’s always a good bet to see 20 touches. In terms of advanced metrics, the Ravens are tougher against the pass than they are against the run. In terms of fantasy points allowed, they are tougher against running backs (8th) than they are against wide receivers and tight ends. There are no sure things when facing the Ravens, but I like the volume expectation for Etienne in this one.
The Ravens aren’t a team that turns the ball over often, and the Jaguars have one of the lowest pressure rates in the NFL. A fluke play here or there can always happen, but I’m not prioritizing Jacksonville’s defense in this one. Kicker Brandon McManus is firmly in play, as he has scored double-digit fantasy points in 6 games already this season.
Baltimore Ravens Preview
The Ravens have had far too many rushing touchdowns from players not named Lamar Jackson this season. At least, that’s what my bankroll tells me. We knew Jackson was due for some positive touchdown regression, and he threw for three of them last week against the Rams. The advanced metrics suggest the Jaguars have an above-average pass defense, yet they have allowed the 3rd-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. They have also allowed the 7th-most rushing touchdowns to the position. Jackson is far and away my favorite target at MVP and CPT, but don’t expect that to be a contrarian take.
We never quite know whom Lamar is going to favor in each game. One game it will be Zay Flowers. The next one will be Odell Beckham. The next one will be Isaiah Likely. What we do know is that a lot of targets have opened up with Mark Andrews out of the lineup. In terms of this matchup, the Jaguars have allowed the 6th-most fantasy points to wide receivers and the 9th-most fantasy points to tight ends. It’s a strong matchup for all of the wideouts. On a per-dollar basis, Flowers, Beckham, and Likely have almost identical values in our projections. Rashod Bateman and Nelson Agholor are actually the best per-dollar options, at least on DraftKings. Ultimately, I’ll be mixing and matching all five wideouts in my MME pool.
The Ravens’ backfield is one of the toughest to predict every week. It was Gus Edwards in the early stages of the season, but it has been a 3-man committee recently. Justice Hill actually led the running backs in snaps last week, yet he didn’t receive a carry and only had 1 reception for 12 yards. Keaton Mitchell is the most likely candidate to lead the backfield in touches, but there doesn’t seem to be a rhyme or reason to the usage among these three. To make matters worse, the Jaguars are 2nd in DVOA against the run this season. I’m fine sprinkling them into the MME player pool, but I won’t be looking to Baltimore’s running backs in my single-entry lineup.
The Ravens have a very good defense and have averaged the most sacks per game of any team in the NFL. I hate to say it, but they are live against my favorite team. I probably won’t have a ton of exposure to these defenses, but I prefer Baltimore over Jacksonville. Justin Tucker is one of the best to ever kick a football. He’s a strong option in all formats.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
My first thought is to lock Lamar Jackson in at MVP and CPT. Now, this might not be my strategy if I decide to build 20+ lineups in large-field contests, but it will certainly be my strategy for my main lineup. And I would recommend the same if you are playing cash games. Outside of Lamar, I don’t have a lot of strong takes. The spread and matchup could set up very well for Justin Tucker, as the Ravens should be able to move the ball but could struggle to find the end zone at times. I don’t plan to build any onslaughts, as Baltimore’s offense isn’t concentrated enough for my liking. And when it comes to the Jaguars, I don’t see them running away with this game.
Jaguars-Ravens DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | QB | 20.73 | $12,400 | $18,600 | 1.67 | $17,000 | 1.22 |
| Travis Etienne | JAX | RB | 16.96 | $10,200 | $15,300 | 1.66 | $15,500 | 1.09 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | QB | 15.54 | $10,400 | $15,600 | 1.49 | $14,500 | 1.07 |
| Evan Engram | JAX | TE | 13.93 | $7,600 | $11,400 | 1.83 | $11,000 | 1.27 |
| Zay Flowers | BAL | WR | 13.18 | $8,800 | $13,200 | 1.50 | $13,000 | 1.01 |
| Calvin Ridley | JAX | WR | 12.87 | $8,600 | $12,900 | 1.50 | $12,500 | 1.03 |
| Zay Jones | JAX | WR | 10.79 | $5,600 | $8,400 | 1.93 | $8,000 | 1.35 |
| Odell Beckham | BAL | WR | 10.68 | $7,200 | $10,800 | 1.48 | $9,500 | 1.12 |
| Keaton Mitchell | BAL | RB | 10.08 | $5,800 | $8,700 | 1.74 | $11,500 | 0.88 |
| Isaiah Likely | BAL | TE | 9.98 | $6,800 | $10,200 | 1.47 | $8,000 | 1.25 |
| Ravens | BAL | DST | 8.71 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.98 | $9,000 | 0.97 |
| Justin Tucker | BAL | K | 7.85 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.45 | $8,500 | 0.92 |
| Brandon McManus | JAX | K | 7.82 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.63 | $8,500 | 0.92 |
| Gus Edwards | BAL | RB | 6.30 | $7,400 | $11,100 | 0.85 | $10,000 | 0.63 |
| Jaguars | JAX | DST | 6.05 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.68 | $9,000 | 0.67 |
| Rashod Bateman | BAL | WR | 5.98 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 1.87 | $7,000 | 0.85 |
| Parker Washington | JAX | WR | 5.22 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.31 | $7,500 | 0.70 |
| Nelson Agholor | BAL | WR | 5.12 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 2.13 | $7,500 | 0.68 |
| D’Ernest Johnson | JAX | RB | 3.58 | $6,200 | $9,300 | 0.58 | $7,000 | 0.51 |
| Justice Hill | BAL | RB | 3.00 | $2,600 | $3,900 | 1.15 | $6,500 | 0.46 |
| Jamal Agnew | JAX | WR | 2.11 | $200 | $300 | 10.55 | $5,000 | 0.42 |
| Tim Jones | JAX | WR | 1.01 | $600 | $900 | 1.68 | $5,500 | 0.18 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Justin Tucker: $5,400 DK / $8,500 FD
Listen, Justin Tucker is almost always popular when it comes to showdown slates. He’s one of the best kickers of all time. However, the weather in this game is going to scare everyone away from the kickers. Kevin Roth’s forecast is calling for 40 MPH wind gusts during the game. I still think it’s a good spot for Tucker, and if the game ends up being low-scoring, his kicking points could be even more valuable.
Jaguars vs. Ravens Player Pick’em
Season record: 29-16
26-8 over the last 34 games
Gus Edwards more than 31.5 rushing yards (1.79x) – Sleeper
Edwards has only rushed for more than 30 yards one time in his last 4 games but accomplished the feat in each of the first 9 games of the season. If the winds are as bad as expected, it will impact the passing game for both teams. Even though Justice Hill led the backfield in snaps last week, he’s not going to get many carries. In this matchup, I could see the snap count swing back in favor of Edwards and Keaton Mitchell.
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