The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Jets vs. Steelers
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Jets vs. Steelers, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Sunday Night Football matchup. As always, check the NFL weather page each week to see if this game (or any games) will be impacted by wind or rain.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers- Jets vs. Steelers
While I don’t expect this to be the most entertaining football game on the field, the storylines surrounding it are too good to ignore. The Jets continue to bend the knee to Aaron Rodgers by trading for Davante Adams this week. While he makes the offense better, I didn’t think wide receiver was near the top of their list of problems. After a 4-2 start, Mike Tomlin and the Steelers decided to start Russell Wilson this week. Why? Nobody knows. And to make matters worse, he said they will likely use both quarterbacks in some capacity on Sunday night. This defensive battle features a 2-point spread and a 38.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Tyler Conklin – Questionable (Full Practice)
Cordarrelle Patterson – Out
New York Jets Preview
Aaron Rodgers has yet to have a breakout fantasy game this season. He has only topped 20 fantasy points one time and has yet to throw for more than 300 yards. While we have to love his weapons, this might be his most difficult matchup to date. On the season, the Steelers are 2nd in PFF’s pass rush grades and 6th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Rodgers is viable given his high median projection compared to everyone else in this game, but he’s not a must play like most quarterbacks on Showdown slates.
I usually like to break down the usage for the wideouts on each offense, but there’s no point in doing that with Davante Adams now in the mix for the Jets. It’s never good when you have to come out as a team and say you aren’t fielding offers for one of your best players (Garrett Wilson). Honestly, nobody knows how the target share is going to look in this offense. Wilson has a 29% target share this season, but Rodgers has a serious connection with both Adams and Allen Lazard.
The odd man out seems to be Mike Williams, who was already on thin ice after apparently running the wrong route that led to a Rodgers pick late in last week’s game. I am siding with Adams as my favorite wide receiver from the Jets in this spot. Rodgers will want to welcome him to the team with a high target share, and I’m tentatively expecting Joey Porter to spend most of his time on Wilson. Tyler Conklin is listed as questionable but did practice in full on Friday. I worry about his piece of the pie getting smaller with Adams now on the team.
Right when it looked like Braelon Allen was seriously cutting into the workload of Breece Hall, the latter came out and had his best game of the season against the Bills last week. He turned his 23 touches into 169 yards from scrimmage. He didn’t find the end zone, but he was heavily involved in both the running and passing game. Almost as important as the touches, Hall played on 86% of the snaps. Given the importance of this game for the Jets to stay in the playoff picture, I expect a lot more Hall than Allen.
This game has one of the lowest totals that we have seen all season. The Jets have a stout defense and are facing some combination of Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. If the offense can build a lead, there will be a clear path for New York to get pressure on the opposing quarterback and generate some turnovers. Kicker Greg Zuerlein struggled last week, but the wind was swirling in New York. He’s viable on a slate that doesn’t offer a ton of value.
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Pittsburgh Steelers Preview
I’m not an NFL coach, nor do I expect to ever be one. I’m not going to say I know better than Mike Tomlin, but I will say that I don’t understand the move to Russell Wilson after starting 4-2 on the season. The conspiracy theorists out there think that since Wilson was expected to be the starter at the beginning of the season, Tomlin is going to give him one start that just so happens to be against an elite defense. I doubt it, but who knows? Regardless, it’s hard to trust Wilson given the fact that this is his first start with the Steelers and that Fields is still expected to get some snaps.
We’ll take a look at the usage for Pittsburgh’s wideouts this season, but keep in mind these metrics happened with Fields under center:
George Pickens: 77% route percentage, 27% target rate, 47% air yards share
Van Jefferson: 63% route percentage, 8% target rate, 13% air yards share
Calvin Austin: 56% route percentage, 11% target rate, 19% air yards share
Pat Freiermuth: 74% route percentage, 16% target rate, 11% air yards share
Even though I don’t agree with the switch to Wilson, I do think it helps the wideouts in terms of their fantasy production. Wilson is much more of a pocket passer than Fields and should be more accurate. George Pickens hasn’t seemed all that motivated this season, but perhaps a change at quarterback can get him going. The problem is that the Jets have two of the best outside cornerbacks in the NFL in DJ Reed and Sauce Gardner. Pickens and Van Jefferson both spend around 30% of their snaps in the slot, while Calvin Austin has spent 60% of his snaps in the slot. The matchup isn’t much better for Pat Freiermuth, as the Jets have allowed the 7th-fewest fantasy points to tight ends.
So many of us targeted Najee Harris while Jaylen Warren was out. Naturally, Harris had his best game of the season last week with Warren back in the lineup. While the efficiency was encouraging, let’s keep in mind that he only played on 49% of the snaps and that he was facing the Raiders in a great game script. Warren played on 36% of the snaps, so we can expect him to be involved moving forward. The best way to move the ball against the Jets has been on the ground, and Cordarrelle Patterson has been ruled out, so I don’t mind looking to Harris and/or Warren in Showdown.
The Steelers defense can get pressure on the quarterback and are facing a team with a lot of unknowns. In the last few weeks, the Jets have fired their head coach and have traded for Davante Adams. There’s a chance this ends horribly for the Jets. Plus this game is in Pittsburgh, so I will have some exposure to this defense. Kicker Chris Boswell is a strong value play.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
This is one of those games that has appeal for the story lines but not for DFS. However, you know I’m going to build lineups anyway. I plan to be overweight on both defenses and likely on both kickers as well. If the game is as low-scoring as expected, the defenses will have their opportunities, and kicking points will be more valuable.
Jets vs. Steelers DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | NYJ | RB | 18.84 | $10,400 | $15,600 | 1.81 | $15,500 | 1.22 |
| Aaron Rodgers | NYJ | QB | 15.54 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 1.62 | $14,500 | 1.07 |
| Russell Wilson | PIT | QB | 14.56 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 1.55 | $14,000 | 1.04 |
| Najee Harris | PIT | RB | 13.46 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 1.50 | $12,000 | 1.12 |
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ | WR | 13.37 | $9,200 | $13,800 | 1.45 | $13,500 | 0.99 |
| Davante Adams | NYJ | WR | 13.28 | $10,000 | $15,000 | 1.33 | $13,000 | 1.02 |
| George Pickens | PIT | WR | 13.17 | $8,400 | $12,600 | 1.57 | $11,000 | 1.20 |
| Pat Freiermuth | PIT | TE | 7.99 | $6,400 | $9,600 | 1.25 | $9,500 | 0.84 |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT | RB | 7.90 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.98 | $8,000 | 0.99 |
| Allen Lazard | NYJ | WR | 7.62 | $7,400 | $11,100 | 1.03 | $8,500 | 0.90 |
| Greg Zuerlein | NYJ | K | 7.30 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.46 | $8,500 | 0.86 |
| Jets | NYJ | DST | 7.27 | $4,200 | $6,300 | 1.73 | $9,000 | 0.81 |
| Chris Boswell | PIT | K | 6.61 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.27 | $9,500 | 0.70 |
| Steelers | PIT | DST | 5.95 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.24 | $9,000 | 0.66 |
| Tyler Conklin | NYJ | TE | 5.89 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.34 | $8,000 | 0.74 |
| Braelon Allen | NYJ | RB | 5.53 | $3,800 | $5,700 | 1.46 | $10,000 | 0.55 |
| Calvin Austin | PIT | WR | 5.06 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 2.11 | $7,500 | 0.67 |
| Van Jefferson | PIT | WR | 4.96 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 2.48 | $7,000 | 0.71 |
| Darnell Washington | PIT | TE | 2.70 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 2.25 | $6,500 | 0.42 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | NYJ | TE | 1.81 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 1.13 | $6,000 | 0.30 |
| Roman Wilson | PIT | WR | 1.41 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 1.41 | $5,000 | 0.28 |
| Connor Heyward | PIT | TE | 1.29 | $600 | $900 | 2.15 | $5,500 | 0.23 |
| Justin Fields | PIT | QB | 1.17 | $9,800 | $14,700 | 0.12 | $14,000 | 0.08 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Jaylen Warren: $4,000 DK / $8,000 FD
Game log watchers will see the 9 touches and 10 yards for Jaylen Warren last week and run for the hills. While the efficiency wasn’t there, he played on 36% of the snaps. I view him as the better pass-catching back in this offense, so we could see an increased role in a matchup against the Jets (especially if they fall behind early). With Cordarrelle Patterson out, it should be a two-man backfield for the Steelers. As noted above, the best way to move the ball against the Jets is through the running back position.
Jets vs. Steelers Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 17-8
Jaylen Warren more than 36.5 rushing + receiving yards (1.80x) – Sleeper Fantasy
For the reasons mentioned above, I like Jaylen Warren to get more than 36.5 rushing plus receiving yards tonight against the Steelers.
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Image Credit: Getty Images
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus