The NFL DFS Grind Down: Monday Night Football - Lions vs. 49ers
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Lions vs. 49ers, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Monday Night Football matchup. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Lions vs. 49ers
After an incredible game on Sunday night, the Commanders have clinched a playoff spot, the Rams have clinched the NFC West, and the Buccaneers can win the NFC South with a win in Week 18. Tonight’s game has playoff implications, but only for one team. The Lions are still in a battle with the Vikings for the division and the top seed in the NFC. The 49ers are 6-9 and, unfortunately, don’t have anything to play for in this one. This game features a 3.5-point spread and a 50.5-point total.
Key Injuries
David Montgomery – Out
Kalif Raymond – Out
Detroit Lions Preview
When games are competitive, the Lions have no problem letting Jared Goff drop back 40+ times. It’s only happened three times this season, and all of those games were decided by less than a touchdown. When the Lions are playing with a lead, there are times when Goff doesn’t drop back more than 30 times. In the latter scenario, he has to rely on extreme efficiency. With this game having such a low spread (and with David Montgomery out), I love the spot for Goff in all formats even though the Niners are 2nd in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks this season.
Let’s take a look at the wideout usage for the Lions over the last 4 games:
Amon-Ra St. Brown: 24% target share, 33% air yards share, 28% first-read rate
Jameson Williams: 16% target share, 25% air yards share, 20% first-read rate
Tim Patrick: 11% target share, 18% air yards share, 12% first-read rate
Sam LaPorta: 18% target share, 24% air yards share, 18% first-read rate
Over the last 4 games, four different wideouts on the Lions have had at least an 11% target share, and at least a 16% air yards share. Amon-Ra St. Brown leads the way in every usage metric, but he’s priced at a premium on this slate. Jameson Williams continues to see deep targets down the field and provides a high ceiling. Tim Patrick is more involved than most might realize. At $4,000 on DraftKings, he’s a sneaky tournament play. I will note that the Niners are 1st in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers this season. They are nearly as tough against tight ends (3rd), but Sam LaPorta has a 24% air yards share and an 18% first-read rate over the last 4 games.
Even though the Lions blew out the Bears last week, Jahmyr Gibbs played on 69% of the snaps and had 28 opportunities (23 carries and 5 targets). Everything points to him on this slate. Rather than trying to swim upstream, I will lock him into my MVP and CPT spots. In addition to an increased workload, the best way to attack the Niners is with a talented running back. San Francisco is 28th in PFF’s grades against the run, 27th in EPA against the run, and 24th in fantasy points allowed to running backs. Craig Reynolds will also mix in, but the best path for him to find the optimal is a Lions blowout.
This game features a total of over 50 points and there are a lot of skill position players on my radar. For that reason, I don’t expect to target either defense. Kicker Jake Bates is viable given how good the offense is and how tough the Niners have been against the pass.
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San Francisco 49ers Preview
Brock Purdy was a good bet for 2+ touchdowns in most games last season. He hasn’t been nearly as consistent in 2024, but he has still flashed plenty of upside by topping 24 fantasy points in 6 of 14 games. Being a home underdog is generally good for a team’s passing attack, and the best way to move the ball against the Lions has been through the air. They are elite against the run but have really struggled against the pass in recent weeks. With Purdy’s rushing upside, he deserves consideration at MVP and CPT.
Let’s take a look at the wideout usage for the Niners over the last 4 games:
Jauan Jennings: 24% target share, 39% air yards share, 29% first-read rate
Deebo Samuel: 20% target share, 10% air yards share, 22% first-read rate
Ricky Pearsall: 10% target share, 18% air yards share, 10% first-read rate
George Kittle: 20% target share, 23% air yards share, 23% first-read rate
We finally saw a breakout game from Deebo Samuel in Week 16. He turned 12 touches into 121 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. He essentially played as a WR1 and an RB2 with the backfield dealing with so many injuries. I still prefer the underlying usage that we’ve seen for Jauan Jennings (39% air yards share, 29% first-read rate). The Lions have allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Ricky Pearsall hasn’t seen more than 4 targets since Week 10, but this is as good of a spot as you are going to find. George Kittle is close to matchup-proof, but it’s worth noting that the Lions are 1st in fantasy points allowed to tight ends this season. They funnel targets to wide receivers.
Christian McCaffrey, Eli Mitchell, and Jordan Mason are all out, but Isaac Guerendo is expected to be back in the lineup this week. He has a ton of speed and gets to play in one of the best rushing systems in the league. I don’t love the matchup, but he’s affordable and could push for 15+ touches at low ownership. Patrick Taylor will serve as the backup, while Kyle Juszczyk could have a couple of touches as well.
The Niners defense is an easy fade for me given the matchup against the Lions. I am also planning to be underweight on Jake Moody. If the Niners fall behind early, they won’t be able to settle for field goals.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
As noted earlier, my plan of attack on this slate is to lock Jahmyr Gibbs into my MVP and CPT spots, load up on the Niners wide receivers (Jauan Jennings in particular), and then build from there. I want to get exposure to both quarterbacks but will be prioritizing Brock Purdy over Jared Goff. In a game that features such a high total (50.5 points), I’ll take my chances with a fade of the defenses.
Lions vs. 49ers DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | RB | 24.99 | $11,600 | $17,400 | 2.15 | $15,000 | 1.67 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | QB | 19.25 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 2.05 | $14,500 | 1.33 |
| Jared Goff | DET | QB | 18.67 | $9,800 | $14,700 | 1.91 | $15,500 | 1.20 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | 18.61 | $10,600 | $15,900 | 1.76 | $14,000 | 1.33 |
| Jauan Jennings | SF | WR | 15.77 | $7,800 | $11,700 | 2.02 | $11,000 | 1.43 |
| George Kittle | SF | TE | 15.07 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 1.67 | $12,500 | 1.21 |
| Isaac Guerendo | SF | RB | 14.90 | $8,400 | $12,600 | 1.77 | $10,500 | 1.42 |
| Deebo Samuel | SF | WR | 14.77 | $7,600 | $11,400 | 1.94 | $10,000 | 1.48 |
| Jameson Williams | DET | WR | 12.65 | $8,000 | $12,000 | 1.58 | $11,500 | 1.10 |
| Sam LaPorta | DET | TE | 10.91 | $5,800 | $8,700 | 1.88 | $9,500 | 1.15 |
| Jake Moody | SF | K | 8.06 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.68 | $9,000 | 0.90 |
| Tim Patrick | DET | WR | 7.20 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.80 | $8,000 | 0.90 |
| Lions | DET | DST | 6.57 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.49 | $8,500 | 0.77 |
| Ricky Pearsall | SF | WR | 6.51 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.81 | $8,000 | 0.81 |
| Jake Bates | DET | K | 6.50 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.30 | $9,000 | 0.72 |
| 49ers | SF | DST | 5.51 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 1.62 | $8,500 | 0.65 |
| Craig Reynolds | DET | RB | 3.57 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 1.19 | $7,500 | 0.48 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | SF | RB | 3.27 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 1.36 | $6,000 | 0.55 |
| Sione Vaki | DET | RB | 2.01 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 1.01 | $6,000 | 0.34 |
| Patrick Taylor | SF | RB | 1.48 | $6,400 | $9,600 | 0.23 | $7,500 | 0.20 |
| Brock Wright | DET | TE | 1.20 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 0.75 | $7,000 | 0.17 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Ricky Pearsall: $3,600 DK / $8,000 FD
Even though he hasn’t seen more than 4 targets since Week 10, he has some decent underlying usage metrics over the last 4 games — 10% target share, 18% air yards share, and 10% first-read rate. The Niners are likely to be trailing in this game, while the Lions are elite against the run and elite at defending tight ends. I could see Pearsall getting 5+ targets at a very cheap price point.
Lions vs. 49ers Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 27-26
Jauan Jennings more than 64.5 receiving yards (1.72x) – Sleeper Fantasy
After starting the season on a tear, we’ve hit a terrible cold streak the last few weeks. Let’s hope to get back on track tonight so we don’t dip to .500 on the season. Jauan Jennings has elite usage metrics, an elite matchup (Lions have allowed the 2nd-most receiving yards to wide receivers), and a game script that should lead to a pass-heavy game plan for the Niners.
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Image Credit: Getty Images
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus