The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Lions vs. Texans
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Lions vs. Texans, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Sunday Night Football matchup. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Lions vs. Texans
We are back with another edition of Sunday Night Football. We should have a great game on our hands this evening, as the Lions travel to Houston to take on the Texans. Even without Aidan Hutchinson, the Lions look like the most complete team in the NFC at the moment. The Texans are 6-3 to start the season and already seem to have one hand on the division title (the AFC South is bad). Tonight’s game features a 3.5-point spread and a 49.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Nico Collins – Questionable
Tank Dell – Questionable
Dameon Pierce – Out
Detroit Lions Preview
The Lions lead the NFL in points per game (32.3) this season. Jared Goff has only attempted more than 30 passes once all season, but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t been relevant in fantasy football. He has been extremely efficient and has topped 27 fantasy points two times this season. His floor isn’t quite where we want it to be, but that’s largely because opponents haven’t been able to keep up with the Lions. With this game’s low spread, we can expect some push back from Houston. Goff isn’t on my radar at MVP/CPT, but he’s a solid UTIL/FLEX play against a team that has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
With Jameson Williams back from his suspension, the Lions will have all of their wideouts available. Let’s see how the usage has shaken out in this passing attack:
Amon-Ra St. Brown: 83% route percentage, 27% target rate, 31% air yards share
Jameson Williams: 82% route percentage, 17% target rate, 33% air yards share
Tim Patrick: 48% route percentage, 8% target rate, 14% air yards share
Sam LaPorta: 67% route percentage, 11% target rate, 10% air yards share
It’s been a relatively quiet season for Amon-Ra St. Brown. He’s done a lot with his targets, but the passing volume in this offense has been so low. He still has elite usage metrics: 27% target rate, 31% air yards share, and a 31% first-read rate. Jameson Williams is not returning from an injury. This is important to note because he won’t be limited in his snaps. The Texans have allowed the 7th-most fantasy points to wide receivers, which makes St. Brown and Williams both viable on this slate.
Tim Patrick and Kalif Raymond haven’t done much in this offense, but they are both priced under $3,000 on DraftKings. If you think the Lions air it out a bit more in this game, they can be included in your MME player pool. Sam LaPorta has been awfully quiet in his sophomore season. To make matters worse, the Texans have allowed the fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season. I likely won’t have much exposure to Detroit’s pass catchers outside of St. Brown and Williams.
It’s been a tremendous season for both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. The two have combined to average 32 touches and 183 yards from scrimmage per game. They have scored 15 touchdowns combined. The difficult part is trying to decide which one will have the bigger game for DFS. Luckily, both are viable on a Showdown slate like this one. The Texans have allowed the 2nd-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season, but the advanced metrics suggest they are below average against the run.
The Lions have a high pressure rate and often play with a lead, so a case for their defense can certainly be made tonight. Kicker Jake Bates is a perfect 12 for 12 in field goals made this season.
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Houston Texans Preview
Expectations were extremely high for C.J. Stroud entering his second season. However, the receiving corps has been injured, and the offense as a whole has sputtered a bit. He’s been held to under 20 fantasy points in 7 of 9 games and has only averaged 15.9 fantasy points per game this season. This week, he squares off against the Lions, who are 5th in EPA against the pass. The key to Stroud’s appeal in DFS is the availability of Nico Collins and Tank Dell.
I usually like to break down the wideout usage for each offense, but that’s tough to do with the Texans. Stefon Diggs is now out for the season, while Nico Collins and Tank Dell are both questionable for tonight’s game. If one is out, the other should benefit immensely. Reading the tea leaves, it sounds like Collins is more of a game-time decision and Dell is closer to probable, but that’s just conjecture on my part. If both are active, it helps the offense but limits the appeal of each. The biggest positive here is the matchup; the Lions have allowed the 3rd-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season.
Xavier Hutchinson, Robert Woods, and John Metchie all ran a route on at least 50% of dropbacks last week with Diggs and Collins out. They all had less than a 10% target share, but they were at least on the field a bunch. Their appeal hinges on the availability of Collins and Dell tonight. Dalton Schultz has a tougher matchup, as the Lions have allowed the 3rd-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. He’s been held under 10 fantasy points in every single game this season.
Joe Mixon has averaged 24 touches and 120 yards from scrimmage per game this season. He has a decent target share and a huge role in the red zone. It’s wild, but he might be the most consistent player on this offense. The Lions aren’t bad against the run by any means, but they are 14th in PFF’s grades against the run and 9th in EPA against the run. It’s a slightly better matchup for Mixon than it is for the passing attack.
I have a hard time seeing the Texans slowing down the Lions’ offense. We could always get a fluke defensive score, but I won’t have any exposure to this defense. I’m also worried the Texans can’t afford to settle for field goals, but it’s hard to ignore the season Ka’imi Fairbairn has had. He’s a decent value play.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
A lot of the slate hinges on the availability of Nico Collins and Tank Dell. However, I do plan to make a rule in LineupHQ to use “exactly 1” of Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams. This group is shown below in LineupHQ.
Lions vs. Texans DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | 18.83 | $11,000 | $16,500 | 1.71 | $15,000 | 1.26 |
| Joe Mixon | HOU | RB | 18.45 | $10,800 | $16,200 | 1.71 | $14,500 | 1.27 |
| Jared Goff | DET | QB | 18.41 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 1.92 | $13,500 | 1.36 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | QB | 17.26 | $9,800 | $14,700 | 1.76 | $13,000 | 1.33 |
| Tank Dell | HOU | WR | 17.22 | $8,800 | $13,200 | 1.96 | $10,500 | 1.64 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | RB | 16.97 | $9,200 | $13,800 | 1.84 | $12,000 | 1.41 |
| David Montgomery | DET | RB | 14.17 | $8,200 | $12,300 | 1.73 | $11,000 | 1.29 |
| Sam LaPorta | DET | TE | 11.29 | $6,200 | $9,300 | 1.82 | $9,500 | 1.19 |
| Dalton Schultz | HOU | TE | 10.53 | $5,600 | $8,400 | 1.88 | $9,500 | 1.11 |
| Jameson Williams | DET | WR | 9.29 | $6,800 | $10,200 | 1.37 | $10,000 | 0.93 |
| Ka’imi Fairbairn | HOU | K | 8.43 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.62 | $9,000 | 0.94 |
| Jake Bates | DET | K | 7.16 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.43 | $8,500 | 0.84 |
| Lions | DET | DST | 6.93 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.73 | $8,500 | 0.82 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | HOU | WR | 5.99 | $4,600 | $6,900 | 1.30 | $8,000 | 0.75 |
| Robert Woods | HOU | WR | 5.21 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 1.63 | $7,500 | 0.69 |
| John Metchie | HOU | WR | 4.94 | $2,600 | $3,900 | 1.90 | $7,500 | 0.66 |
| Texans | HOU | DST | 4.68 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.30 | $9,000 | 0.52 |
| Cade Stover | HOU | TE | 4.06 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 2.54 | $6,500 | 0.62 |
| Tim Patrick | DET | WR | 3.73 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 1.55 | $7,000 | 0.53 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | HOU | RB | 3.49 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 1.16 | $6,500 | 0.54 |
| Kalif Raymond | DET | WR | 2.95 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 1.05 | $8,000 | 0.37 |
| Brock Wright | DET | TE | 2.33 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 1.17 | $5,500 | 0.42 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Jameson Williams: $6,800 DK / $10,000 FD
More often than not, DFS players are hesitant to target players that are returning from injury. While Jameson Williams is not coming back from injury, he hasn’t played the last couple of games. Game log watchers will naturally assume he was out with an injury rather than a suspension. We also have a relatively high price point. This combo should lead to low ownership on Jamo. He has slate-breaking upside and is my favorite tournament play on the slate.
Lions vs. Texans Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 20-13
Jahmyr Gibbs more than 80.5 rushing + receiving yards (1.63x) – Sleeper Fantasy
We are in the midst of a losing streak with the pick’em plays. We’ll try to bounce back with Jahmyr Gibbs, who has averaged 103 yards from scrimmage this season. He typically sees 12-15 carries and has a respectable 11% target share this season. Regardless of game script, he’s going to be heavily involved tonight against the Texans.
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Image Credit: Getty Images
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus