The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - 49ers vs. Bills
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Niners at Bills, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Sunday Night Football matchup. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Niners at Bills
Happy Sunday everyone! It’s hard to believe we are already into Week 13, but here we are. We have a potentially great game on our hands tonight, as the Niners travel to Buffalo to take on the Bills. The Niners have underwhelmed this season, as they are 5-6 in the standings and tied for last in their division. They need to go on a serious run if they want to get back to the playoffs. The Bills have won 6 games in a row and are 9-2 on the season with a point differential of +106. You know Bills Mafia will be raucous in this one, as they will spend all day tailgating and jumping through tables. The Bills are listed as 6.5-point favorites and the game features a 44.5-point total.
The best part about this game is that it’s a classic December snow game. Let’s go!
Key Injuries
Brock Purdy – Probable
Chris Conley – Questionable
Dalton Kincaid – Out
Keon Coleman – Questionable
San Francisco 49ers Preview
Brock Purdy is expected to play after missing last week’s game, but he’s suiting up at less than 100%. He’s dealing with a shoulder injury on his throwing side, which is certainly a concern for this game. A matchup against the Bills doesn’t help, as Buffalo is above the league average in pressure rate, EPA against the pass, and fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Purdy is viable given his median projection on a Showdown slate, but he’s not on my radar for the multiplier positions.
Let’s look at the wideout usage for the Niners with Brandon Aiyuk out of the lineup this season:
Deebo Samuel: 19% target share, 20% air yards share, 27% first-read rate
Jauan Jennings: 29% target share, 33% air yards share, 38% first-read rate
Ricky Pearsall: 9% target share, 13% air yards share, 11% first-read rate
George Kittle: 19% target share, 28% air yards share, 21% first-read rate
Most would assume Deebo Samuel or George Kittle has led the team in targets and air yards with Brandon Aiyuk out of the lineup, but that has not been the case. Jauan Jennings is getting WR1 type of usage — 29% target share with a 38% first-read rate. He’s been volatile on a game-to-game basis, but it’s hard to ignore the 22 targets that he’s seen in Purdy’s last couple of starts. Samuel has been held under 13 fantasy points in each of his last 5 games. Ricky Pearsall has put up bagels (0 fantasy points) in back-to-back games. Jennings is my favorite wide receiver target on the Niners tonight. Kittle has a slightly better matchup than the receivers, as the Bills are 14th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
Christian McCaffrey has not had a big fantasy outing this season, but the usage has been elite. In his first 3 games back from injury, he has played on 88% of the snaps and has handled most of the running back touches for the Niners. He has only averaged 3.5 yards per carry but has caught 13 of 16 targets for 136 yards already this season. He draws the best matchup of the skill position players, as the Bills are 26th in PFF’s grades against the run and 30th in fantasy points allowed to running backs. He’s right there with Josh Allen as my favorite plays at MVP and CPT.
The Niners still have a talented defense and can put pressure on the quarterback, but they aren’t a priority for me on this short slate. Kicker Jake Moody is viable, but I always hesitate targeting kickers on teams that are sizable underdogs.
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Buffalo Bills Preview
Josh Allen hasn’t had as many ceiling performances this season, but this might be his best year of football as a real-life quarterback. And in fantasy, he has scored at least 20 fantasy points in each of his last 6 games. Tonight, he squares off against the Niners, who have one of the best pass defenses in the NFL. San Francisco has allowed the 7th-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. I’m not overly concerned about the matchup, as Allen’s rushing upside gives him the best floor/ceiling combination on the slate. He’s firmly in play at the multiplier positions.
Dalton Kincaid has been ruled out, while Keon Coleman is listed as questionable. Let’s take a look at the usage for the rest of the wideouts this season:
Khalil Shakir: 21% target share, 12% air yards share, 26% first-read rate
Mack Hollins: 9% target share, 18% air yards share, 12% first-read rate
Amari Cooper: 9% target share, 19% air yards share, 14% first-read rate
Dawson Knox: 6% target share, 9% air yards share, 7% first-read rate
Thanks to the absence of Kincaid and the potential absence of Coleman, we can expect the wideouts listed above to see higher target shares in this game. Khalil Shakir is the primary slot receiver for the Bills and doesn’t have the highest ceiling given his low aDOT, but he offers a high floor against the Niners. Mack Hollins and Amari Cooper will be the starting outside receivers if Coleman is unable to suit up. Both have struggled with consistency during their time with the Bills. The Niners have long been tough on tight ends given their talented linebackers, but Knox is cheap and will be the clear TE1 for Buffalo in this game.
The Bills are 6.5-point favorites tonight, they are playing at home, and they have a favorable matchup on the ground. All of this sets up well for James Cook, who has scored 7 touchdowns in his last 6 games. The Niners are 23rd or worse this season in PFF’s rush defense grades, EPA against the run, and fantasy points allowed to running backs. Cook could see an uptick in target share tonight, and he has been a major threat in the red zone (unlike last season).
Even though the Niners have a capable offense, they haven’t been as efficient this season, and Brock Purdy is less than 100%. I have interest in the Bills D/ST in tournaments. Kicker Tyler Bass is one of my favorite value plays on the slate.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
Due to the matchup and the fact that Brock Purdy is nursing a shoulder injury, I love the idea of using Christian McCaffrey at MVP and CPT and then surrounding him with a Bills’ stack. If the Niners can only move the ball on the ground and with short passes, CMC could be the only player on the Niners to hit the optimal lineup. I only plan to build a lineup or two for this slate and will be utilizing this strategy.
Niners at Bills DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | BUF | QB | 21.21 | $11,000 | $16,500 | 1.93 | $16,000 | 1.33 |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | RB | 20.99 | $10,600 | $15,900 | 1.98 | $15,500 | 1.35 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | QB | 15.86 | $9,200 | $13,800 | 1.72 | $13,500 | 1.17 |
| Khalil Shakir | BUF | WR | 15.22 | $8,000 | $12,000 | 1.90 | $11,000 | 1.38 |
| James Cook | BUF | RB | 14.70 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 1.53 | $13,000 | 1.13 |
| Deebo Samuel | SF | WR | 11.74 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 1.30 | $11,500 | 1.02 |
| Jauan Jennings | SF | WR | 11.52 | $7,400 | $11,100 | 1.56 | $10,500 | 1.10 |
| George Kittle | SF | TE | 11.12 | $8,600 | $12,900 | 1.29 | $12,000 | 0.93 |
| Amari Cooper | BUF | WR | 10.49 | $7,200 | $10,800 | 1.46 | $10,000 | 1.05 |
| Dawson Knox | BUF | TE | 8.44 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 2.11 | $7,000 | 1.21 |
| Tyler Bass | BUF | K | 7.13 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.32 | $8,500 | 0.84 |
| Bills | BUF | DST | 6.93 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.39 | $9,000 | 0.77 |
| Jake Moody | SF | K | 6.09 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.17 | $8,500 | 0.72 |
| Curtis Samuel | BUF | WR | 5.94 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.35 | $7,500 | 0.79 |
| Ricky Pearsall | SF | WR | 5.50 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.15 | $8,000 | 0.69 |
| 49ers | SF | DST | 5.44 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 1.70 | $9,000 | 0.60 |
| Ray Davis | BUF | RB | 5.05 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 1.80 | $7,000 | 0.72 |
| Mack Hollins | BUF | WR | 4.74 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.32 | $8,000 | 0.59 |
| Ty Johnson | BUF | RB | 3.46 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 1.15 | $6,500 | 0.53 |
| Jordan Mason | SF | RB | 1.99 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 0.83 | $7,500 | 0.27 |
| Quintin Morris | BUF | TE | 1.72 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 1.08 | $5,500 | 0.31 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | SF | RB | 1.49 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 0.75 | $6,000 | 0.25 |
Niners at Bills Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 25-16
Christian McCaffrey more than 34.5 receiving yards (1.75x) – Sleeper Fantasy
I absolutely love this play tonight. Christian McCaffrey has not been efficient on the ground since returning from injury, but he has caught 13 of 16 targets for 136 yards in 3 games. With Brandon Aiyuk out, Brock Purdy nursing a should injury, and the Niners being 6.5-point underdogs, CMC could see a few extra targets in this one. On top of that, the Niners have allowed the most receiving yards to running backs this season.
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Image Credit: Getty Images
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus