The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Packers vs. Seahawks
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Packers vs. Seahawks, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Sunday Night Football matchup. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Packers vs. Seahawks
I hope everyone is enjoying their Sunday, preferably with a good main slate. We have a great game on tap tonight, as the Packers travel to Seattle to take on the Seahawks. The Packers aren’t going to catch the Lions in their division, but they still have their sights set on the playoffs. The Seahawks are leading their division, but the Rams are right on their tail. Both teams have a lot on the line, so we can expect a competitive game tonight. It features a 2.5-point spread and a 46.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Luke Musgrave – Out
Kenneth Walker – Doubtful
Green Bay Packers Preview
Jordan Love hasn’t shown much of a ceiling over his last 7 games. During that stretch, he’s only topped 20 fantasy points one time and has been held under 15 fantasy points four times. The Packers have been playing great defense and have had a lot of success on the ground, so he hasn’t been asked to do as much recently. He squares off against the Seahawks, who are close to the league average in EPA against the pass and fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Love is a strong FLEX/UTIL play on this slate, but I prefer to look elsewhere at MVP/CPT.
At this point of the season, recent usage numbers are more important than season-long numbers. Here’s the wideout usage for the Packers in the last 3 games:
Christian Watson: 17% target share, 43% air yards share, 23% first-read rate
Jayden Reed: 14% target share, 11% air yards share, 21% first-read rate
Dontayvion Wicks: 17% target share, 19% air yards share, 23% first-read rate
Romeo Doubs: 26% target share, 27% air yards share, 29% first-read rate
Tucker Kraft: 18% target share, 8% air yards share, 16% first-read rate
The Packers’ passing game might be the most difficult in the NFL to predict on a weekly basis. They have four wide receivers and a talented tight end who all deserve targets. While I would argue that they all have a low floor, I do differentiate them by contest type. Jayden Reed is the primary slot receiver. He has a low aDOT and is in theory the most consistent of the bunch (good for cash games). Christian Watson leads the team in air yards (upside for tournaments), while Dontayvion Wicks and Romeo Doubs are the cheaper options. Tucker Kraft has had a huge role in the red zone and is facing a defense that is 20th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
Josh Jacobs is always the forgotten running back on full slates. For whatever reason, everyone is quick to say that he’s washed and has no upside. However, he’s topped 20 fantasy points in 6 of the last 7 games. He’s a good bet for 20+ touches every week and continues to score touchdowns at an abnormally high rate. The Seahawks are 21st in PFF’s grades against the run and 20th in fantasy points allowed to running backs this season. I get the feeling Jacobs will be under-owned once again given his high price point.
With this game featuring a close spread and a high total, I’m not prioritizing either defense. Kicker Brandon McManus is worth a look as a value play.
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Seattle Seahawks Preview
Geno Smith has averaged 18 fantasy points per game this season and has only thrown for 14 touchdowns in 13 games. His touchdown rate is abnormally low, which suggests some positive regression moving forward. The Seahawks have had one of the highest pass rates in the NFL this season, and that will likely continue with Kenneth Walker expected to miss tonight’s game. The Packers are a middling matchup for quarterbacks, ranking 18th in fantasy points allowed to the position. Smith is more viable than Love at the multiplier positions, but I still prefer other options at CPT tonight on DraftKings.
At this point of the season, recent usage numbers are more important than season-long numbers. Here’s the wideout usage for the Seahawks in the last 3 games:
DK Metcalf: 22% target share, 52% air yards share, 37% first-read rate
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 16% target share, 27% air yards share, 21% first-read rate
Tyler Lockett: 7% target share, 13% air yards share, 12% first-read rate
Noah Fant: 13% target share, 15% air yards share, 16% first-read rate
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has had the monster fantasy outings recently, but the underlying usage continues to suggest DK Metcalf is the clear WR1. Over the last 3 games, he boasts a ridiculous 52% air yards share with a 37% first-read rate. Both are strong MVP/CPT considerations tonight against the Packers. I continue to have a hard time clicking on Tyler Lockett, but he’s only $4,000 on DraftKings and $9,500 on FanDuel. It’s a favorable matchup for Noah Fant, as the Packers are 25th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends this season.
With Walker expected out, Zach Charbonnet could play around 90% of the snaps in this game. He was tremendous last week against the Cardinals, turning 29 touches into 193 yards from scrimmage and 3 touchdowns. He’s a big weapon in the passing game, so he’ll have a clear path to 20 touches regardless of the game script. He has a good matchup to boot, as the Packers are 22nd in PFF’s grades against the run and 23rd in fantasy points allowed to running backs this season.
As noted above, I’m not prioritizing either defense. I would only include them in the player pool if you are building 5+ lineups. Kicker Jason Myers is a fine value play.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
There isn’t a ton of value on the slate, which does make roster construction a bit tricky this evening. In terms of the player pool, I want to be overweight on both of the running backs. Josh Jacobs never gets the ownership that he deserves, and Zach Charbonnet should have little to no competition for touches in a favorable matchup. Rostering both running backs could mean sacrificing one of the quarterbacks, so I’ll naturally have a different roster construction than the masses.
Packers vs. Seahawks DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | GB | RB | 21.06 | $11,400 | $17,100 | 1.85 | $15,000 | 1.40 |
| Zach Charbonnet | SEA | RB | 20.21 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 2.25 | $11,000 | 1.84 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | QB | 20.14 | $9,800 | $14,700 | 2.06 | $13,500 | 1.49 |
| Jordan Love | GB | QB | 18.24 | $10,200 | $15,300 | 1.79 | $14,000 | 1.30 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | WR | 16.71 | $8,800 | $13,200 | 1.90 | $14,500 | 1.15 |
| D.K. Metcalf | SEA | WR | 15.79 | $8,400 | $12,600 | 1.88 | $12,000 | 1.32 |
| Jayden Reed | GB | WR | 11.80 | $8,000 | $12,000 | 1.48 | $10,000 | 1.18 |
| Romeo Doubs | GB | WR | 11.54 | $6,600 | $9,900 | 1.75 | $8,000 | 1.44 |
| Tucker Kraft | GB | TE | 9.38 | $5,800 | $8,700 | 1.62 | $8,000 | 1.17 |
| Christian Watson | GB | WR | 8.91 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 1.27 | $9,500 | 0.94 |
| Tyler Lockett | SEA | WR | 8.28 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 2.07 | $9,500 | 0.87 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | GB | WR | 7.91 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.46 | $7,500 | 1.05 |
| Brandon McManus | GB | K | 7.70 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.54 | $9,000 | 0.86 |
| Noah Fant | SEA | TE | 7.26 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 2.02 | $7,500 | 0.97 |
| Jason Myers | SEA | K | 7.14 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.37 | $9,000 | 0.79 |
| Packers | GB | DST | 6.51 | $4,600 | $6,900 | 1.42 | $8,500 | 0.77 |
| Seahawks | SEA | DST | 4.93 | $4,200 | $6,300 | 1.17 | $8,500 | 0.58 |
| Kenny McIntosh | SEA | RB | 4.39 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 1.46 | $5,000 | 0.88 |
| Chris Brooks | GB | RB | 3.24 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 1.35 | $6,000 | 0.54 |
| AJ Barner | SEA | TE | 2.15 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 1.08 | $6,500 | 0.33 |
| Jake Bobo | SEA | WR | 1.58 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 1.58 | $6,000 | 0.26 |
| Emanuel Wilson | GB | RB | 1.56 | $1,400 | $2,100 | 1.11 | $7,000 | 0.22 |
| Pharaoh Brown | SEA | TE | 1.30 | $400 | $600 | 3.25 | $5,500 | 0.24 |
| Ben Sims | GB | TE | 1.06 | $600 | $900 | 1.77 | $5,500 | 0.19 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Romeo Doubs: $6,600 DK / $8,000 FD
Given the fact that there are five viable wideouts for the Packers, they will all eat into each other’s ownership on this slate. Romeo Doubs quietly has some strong usage metrics over the last 3 games — 26% target share, 27% air yards share, and a 29% first-read rate. He’s one of my favorite point-per-dollar plays on the slate, especially given his low ownership projection.
Packers vs. Seahawks Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 27-20
DK Metcalf more than 61.5 receiving yards (1.75x) – Sleeper Fantasy
Over the last 3 games, DK Metcalf has seen over 50% of the team’s air yards. The targets have consistently been there, so I’m not concerned about the recent rise of JSN. More than 61.5 receiving yards seems low for one of the best receivers in football.
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Image Credit: Getty Images
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus