The NFL Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Patriots vs. Dolphins
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Patriots vs. Dolphins, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Sunday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — NEP vs. PHI
By the time you are reading this, you are likely sweating the Sunday morning or afternoon games. I sincerely hope all is going well, and if not, have no fear- there’s always showdown contests that we can enter.
We have an AFC East clash on tap for Sunday Night Football this week, and it should be a fun one. The Dolphins might have the most explosive offense in the NFL, and the Patriots are set on playing at a faster pace with Bill O’Brien at the helm this season. Let’s dive into the game.
New England Patriots Preview
The Patriots got off to a slow start in Week 1, but battled back and put up a good fight against the Eagles. They were able to move the ball at will, and since they were trailing the entire game, Mac Jones ended up with 58 pass attempts. He completed 35 of those for 316 yards and three touchdowns. We shouldn’t expect that type of volume each and every week, but the new offensive coordinator wants to push the tempo, and we know the Dolphins can score quickly. Home underdogs are generally a good spot for quarterbacks when it comes to fantasy production. While we can feel good about Jones in both cash games and tournaments, we should keep an eye on his offensive line. Trent Brown, Cole Strange, and Mike Onwenu are all nursing injuries and are all listed as questionable. This could be a sneaky spot for the Dolphins D/ST.
DeVante Parker missed Week 1’s game against the Eagles and is listed as questionable for Sunday night. He was able to practice this week, but only on a limited basis. He’s expected to be the WR1 in New England when healthy, but Kendrick Bourne stepped up in his absence in Week 1. He caught 6-of-11 targets for 64 yards and two touchdowns. While I would love to see a career resurgence for Juju Smith-Schuster, he doesn’t look like the same player that the Steelers drafted six years ago. He lacks upside, but did see seven targets in the opener. Demario Douglas was drafted in the sixth round of the draft and should be the slot receiver for the Patriots this season. If they get down in this game, they should utilize more 11-personnel. He’s a strong value play on DraftKings ($1,800).
We know Bill Belichick loves his tight ends, and the Patriots have two good ones in Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki. Henry stole the show in Week 1 (5/56/1), but Gesicki might end up being the more productive of the two at the end of the season. There was a funny story about Jones picking him up and taking him to his house the first time they met this off-season, so perhaps the sleepover connection will pay dividends on the field. Given the $3,200 difference in salaries on DraftKings, I’ll side with Gesicki in this one. However, both are viable for this showdown slate.
Even though the Chargers lost to the Dolphins in Week 1, they showed the rest of the league that you can run all over this defense. Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley combined for over 200 yards and two touchdowns. This is a strong bounce-back spot for Rhamondre Stevenson, who could get overlooked with all of the other star-power in this game. Ezekiel Elliott played more than expected in Week 1, but that game script got out of hand very early. I would expect something in the range of a 70/30 split moving forward (in favor of Stevenson). If you roster Zeke, you are really banking on him getting the goal-line carries.
Miami Dolphins Preview
The Dolphins wasted no time putting on a show in Week 1, as they racked up a league-high 536 yards and hung 36 points on the Chargers (who have a fairly good defense). Tua Tagovailoa is a perfect fit for Mike McDaniel’s offense, so this should be a fun team to watch if he can stay healthy. While Tua doesn’t offer much rushing upside, he makes up for it with his ability to throw for 300+ yards and multiple touchdowns each week. He should be a priority in your showdown lineups.
Tyreek Hill is one of those special players where even though the defense knows the ball is going to him, they still can’t stop it. McDaniel does such a great job of moving him around the formation pre-snap that it causes major headaches for opposing defenses. Hill broke the slate in Week 1 with 47.5 fantasy points and could be in line for another big outing against the Patriots. You can double stack Tua or use Jaylen Waddle as a pivot off of Hill. Waddle is going to have plenty of big games this season and he’s significantly cheaper than Hill on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Braxton Berrios ran the third most routes of the Miami receivers in Week 1 and is only $2,000 on DraftKings. River Cracraft also saw the field, but ran half as many routes as Berrios. However, he’s only $800 on DraftKings. If you are looking to play the stars and scrubs build on DraftKings, rostering Berrios and/or Cracraft helps massively on the lineup construction front. The Patriots held Dallas Goedert catchless in Week 1, but it’s worth noting that Durham Smythe played on 100% of the snaps and ran a route on 42 of Tua’s drop-backs. He could be a bigger part of the offense than originally expected and could get lost in the shuffle when it comes to ownership.
Jeff Wilson is on injured reserve and Devon Achane was a healthy scratch last week, so we might see another big workload for Raheem Mostert. We will definitely want to check inactives, as there’s a chance the Dolphins could play Achane in this one. If not, Mostert and Salvon Ahmed (on DraftKings specifically) would both become solid options. Mostert has always had elite speed and has been a great DFS play when healthy. The fact that he’s doing more in the passing game this season is icing on the cake. Ahmed has limited upside, but he’s $1,000 on DraftKings and could see around 25-30% of the snaps in this backfield.
Patriots-Dolphins DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | MIA | WR | 23.86 | $12,600 | $18,900 | 1.89 | $17,000 | 1.40 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | QB | 20.83 | $11,200 | $16,800 | 1.86 | $16,500 | 1.26 |
| Mac Jones | NE | QB | 19.15 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 2.13 | $15,500 | 1.24 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | RB | 16.94 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 1.80 | $14,000 | 1.21 |
| Jaylen Waddle | MIA | WR | 14.85 | $10,200 | $15,300 | 1.46 | $13,500 | 1.10 |
| Raheem Mostert | MIA | RB | 12.85 | $8,000 | $12,000 | 1.61 | $12,000 | 1.07 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | NE | WR | 9.54 | $6,200 | $9,300 | 1.54 | $9,000 | 1.06 |
| Kendrick Bourne | NE | WR | 8.90 | $7,200 | $10,800 | 1.24 | $11,000 | 0.81 |
| DeVante Parker | NE | WR | 8.76 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.75 | $8,000 | 1.10 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | NE | RB | 8.72 | $5,800 | $8,700 | 1.50 | $8,000 | 1.09 |
| Jason Sanders | MIA | K | 7.75 | $4,200 | $6,300 | 1.85 | $9,000 | 0.86 |
| Hunter Henry | NE | TE | 7.71 | $5,600 | $8,400 | 1.38 | $10,000 | 0.77 |
| Chad Ryland | NE | K | 7.09 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.77 | $8,500 | 0.83 |
| Braxton Berrios | MIA | WR | 6.37 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 3.19 | $7,500 | 0.85 |
| Salvon Ahmed | MIA | RB | 6.28 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 6.28 | $6,500 | 0.97 |
| Dolphins | MIA | DST | 6.01 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.37 | $9,500 | 0.63 |
| Durham Smythe | MIA | TE | 5.79 | $3,800 | $5,700 | 1.52 | $7,000 | 0.83 |
| Mike Gesicki | NE | TE | 5.36 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 2.23 | $7,000 | 0.77 |
| Demario Douglas | NE | WR | 5.04 | $1,800 | $2,700 | 2.80 | $7,500 | 0.67 |
| Patriots | NE | DST | 4.96 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.38 | $8,500 | 0.58 |
| De’Von Achane | MIA | RB | 3.81 | $4,600 | $6,900 | 0.83 | $5,500 | 0.69 |
| Kayshon Boutte | NE | WR | 3.23 | $600 | $900 | 5.38 | $5,000 | 0.65 |
| River Cracraft | MIA | WR | 3.10 | $800 | $1,200 | 3.88 | $8,000 | 0.39 |
| Alec Ingold | MIA | RB | 2.22 | $400 | $600 | 5.55 | $5,500 | 0.40 |
| Ty Montgomery II | NE | WR | 2.17 | $1,400 | $2,100 | 1.55 | $6,500 | 0.33 |
| Erik Ezukanma | MIA | WR | 1.38 | $200 | $300 | 6.90 | $6,000 | 0.23 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Mike Gesicki – $2,400 DK / $7,000 FD
I was a big fan of Hunter Henry last week and he ended up having one of the best tight end performances of the week. Everyone is going to see his box score and immediately prefer him over Gesicki, which could be a mistake. Granted, Henry did play more snaps and see more targets, but the Patriots could use more 12-personnel in this game. Additionally, Gesicki is cheap, he has a nice connection with Jones, and he’s facing his former team. Who doesn’t love a revenge touchdown? According to ScoresAndOdds, you can get him at +550 to score a touchdown in this game.
Patriots vs. Dolphins Player Props
Rhamondre Stevenson more than 50.5 rushing yards (1.77x) – Sleeper
This is easily my favorite prop of the game, as the Chargers running backs were able to run wild against the Dolphins in Week 1. The two combined for over 200 yards and two touchdowns. Stevenson didn’t get off to the best start in Week 1, but the Eagles have a good run defense, and the Patriots found themselves in a big hole early. I expect them to lean on the run early and often in this one.
Final DFS Showdown Thoughts
This is a game full of star power, and my goal is to get as many of those star players into each lineup as possible. In the few lineups that I don’t have Tyreek Hill, I will make sure to have Jaylen Waddle. I expect this to be a high-scoring game, and I think the Patriots offense could really surprise some people this season. If they can get the running game going (they should in this matchup), it should really open things up for Mac Jones through the air. I don’t mind taking a chance on the Dolphins defense if the Patriots offensive line is short-handed, and I don’t mind including a kicker here and there in my builds.