The NFL DFS Grind Down: Monday Night Football - Saints vs. Chiefs
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Saints vs. Chiefs, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Monday Night Football matchup. To build the best lineups possible, check out LineupHQ, which is my favorite NFL DFS optimizer in the industry.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Saints vs. Chiefs
We close Week 5 with a Monday Night Football matchup between the Saints and Chiefs. The Saints are 2-2 in the standings with a point differential of +57, which is one of the craziest statistics that I have seen in a while. The Chiefs are looking to keep pace with the Vikings as the only two undefeated teams left in the NFL. This game features a 5.5-point spread and a 43.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Taysom Hill – Out
Rashee Rice – Out
Isiah Pacheco – Out
Clyde Edwards-Helaire – Out
New Orleans Saints Preview
The Saints scored 91 points in their first 2 games but have cooled off over the last 2 weeks, scoring only 36 points. They still lead all teams in average points per game (31.8) this season. At this point, I have no idea what to expect from Derek Carr moving forward. After the last 2 games, I’m tempted to say he is who we always thought he was. However, Klint Kubiak has a great scheme in pace, and Carr threw for 5 touchdowns in the first 2 games combined. He’s viable, given the nature of Showdown slates, but he doesn’t have the upside that I am looking for at MVP and Captain. It’s not a great matchup, as the Chiefs have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL and are 5th in PFF’s grades against the pass this season.
I believe that underlying usage can be just as, if not more, predictive than actual output. Here’s the usage for the Saints wideouts through the first 4 games:
Chris Olave: 83% route percentage, 23% target rate, 32% air yards share
Rashid Shaheed: 81% route percentage, 25% target rate, 50% air yards share
Juwan Johnson: 44% route percentage, 6% target rate, 6% air yards share
Foster Moreau: 25% route percentage, 5% target rate, 6% air yards share
The Saints passing attack essentially flows through two receivers — Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. The duo accounts for 48% of the team’s targets and 82% of the team’s air yards. Carr double-stacks are firmly in play on this slate, even though the Chiefs have historically been tough on wide receivers. The game script could lead to a lot of pass attempts, and the Chiefs no longer have top cornerback L’Jarius Snead.
Mason Tipton has been involved recently and is only $1,000 on DraftKings. With Taysom Hill out, there should be more routes for both Juwan Johnson and Foster Moreau. When Hill was out in Week 3, Johnson (45%) saw a much higher route participation than Moreau (25%). It’s early in the season, but no team had allowed more fantasy points to tight ends through the first 4 games than the Chiefs.
Alvin Kamara has dominated the touches in the Saints’ backfield this season. He’s had 20, 23, 29, and 28 opportunities in the first four games. He has the highest target rate (20%) of any running back in the league, which means he will be heavily involved regardless of the game script. The concern is a matchup against the Chiefs, who are 8th in EPA against the run and 1st in fantasy points allowed to running backs. When it comes to this position, I always side with projected volume over matchup.
The Saints D/ST has a tough draw on the road against the Chiefs. I suppose they have a decent pressure rate, and Patrick Mahomes has taken more sacks this season, but they aren’t a priority for me on this slate. Kicker Blake Grupe is a perfect 8-for-8 on field goals this season and is a little cheaper than some of the kickers we’ve seen in recent Showdown slates.
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Kansas City Chiefs Preview
The Chiefs are currently playing without their biggest two weapons on offense – Rashee Rice and Isiah Pacheco. I’ve touched on the lack of upside for Patrick Mahomes many times in these Showdown articles and will continue to harp on it. Dating back to the start of last season, Mahomes has only topped 20 fantasy points a few times (excluding the playoffs). He has yet to accomplish that task this season and is facing a Saints defense that is 10th or better in PFF’s grades against the pass, EPA against the pass, and fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Mahomes is viable with his median projection, but I prefer to look elsewhere at MVP and Captain.
Looking at usage from the first 3 games wouldn’t do us much good as Rashee Rice was the clear target earner on the team. It’s a small sample size, but let’s take a look at the usage for Kansas City’s receivers in last week’s game after Rice was injured in the first quarter:
Xavier Worthy: 82% route percentage, 10% target rate, 30% air yards share
Justin Watson: 62% route percentage, 10% target rate, 14% air yards share
JuJu Smith-Schuster: 44% route percentage, 0% target rate, 0% air yards share
Travis Kelce: 91% route percentage, 31% target rate, 39% air yards share
Noah Gray: 29% route percentage, 14% target rate, 12% air yards share
Two statistics really stand out — Xavier Worthy saw 30% of the team’s air yards and led all wide receivers in route participation, and Travis Kelce saw massive upticks in routes run, targets, and air yards. Worthy’s speed and home run potential make him an elite tournament play on this slate. I have mixed feelings about Kelce. On the one hand, I think his best football days are behind him. On the other hand, he’s really the only wideout who Mahomes trusts in this offense, and he’s coming off his best game of the season. We have him projected with the 3rd-most median fantasy points in this game, and he’s cheaper than the likes of Derek Carr and Chris Olave.
We are essentially playing darts with the rest of the wideouts on this roster. Justin Watson had encouraging usage after Rice left last week’s game. JuJu Smith-Schuster ran a route on 44% of dropbacks last week but didn’t record a single target. Noah Gray had solid target and air yards shares last week but only ran a route on 29% of dropbacks. I’m sure we’ll see a little of Mecole Hardman (questionable) and Skyy Moore as well. I tend to trust the players who are running routes, so I’ll side with Watson as my favorite value wideout from the Chiefs.
Carson Steele had 18 touches for 74 yards in Week 3’s win over the Falcons but lost a fumble early in Week 4. If Andy Reid doesn’t trust you with ball security, he’s not going to keep you on the field. We saw Kareem Hunt take over the lead role, turning 16 touches into 85 yards from scrimmage. At this point, we are projecting Steele to play behind both Hunt and Samaje Perine. This is a decent matchup on paper, and the Chiefs are sizable home favorites, so perhaps Hunt has some appeal on this slate.
The Saints have injuries on the offensive line, while the Chiefs have had one of the highest pressure rates in the NFL this season. They’ve also been very tough on the run and are playing as home favorites. This is a great spot for the Chiefs D/ST in DFS. Kicker Harrison Butker has a kicking prop of o1.5 field goals made that is heavily favored to the over. He’s a strong option tonight, especially in cash games and small-field tournaments.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
Given how concentrated the Saints offense has been (it essentially flows through Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, and Rashid Shaheed), my favorite builds have two Saints players and then three or four Chiefs players (depending on if you are playing on FanDuel or DraftKings). I plan to be overweight on Harrison Butker and the Chiefs D/ST.
Saints vs. Chiefs DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | NO | RB | 19.29 | $11,400 | $17,100 | 1.69 | $17,000 | 1.13 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | QB | 18.79 | $11,000 | $16,500 | 1.71 | $16,000 | 1.17 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | TE | 15.34 | $8,600 | $12,900 | 1.78 | $13,000 | 1.18 |
| Chris Olave | NO | WR | 14.90 | $10,000 | $15,000 | 1.49 | $12,500 | 1.19 |
| Derek Carr | NO | QB | 14.51 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 1.51 | $14,500 | 1.00 |
| Rashid Shaheed | NO | WR | 12.82 | $8,000 | $12,000 | 1.60 | $10,000 | 1.28 |
| Kareem Hunt | KC | RB | 11.99 | $7,400 | $11,100 | 1.62 | $12,000 | 1.00 |
| Xavier Worthy | KC | WR | 11.02 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 1.22 | $11,000 | 1.00 |
| Samaje Perine | KC | RB | 7.95 | $6,400 | $9,600 | 1.24 | $8,000 | 0.99 |
| Harrison Butker | KC | K | 7.89 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.46 | $9,000 | 0.88 |
| Chiefs | KC | DST | 7.00 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.75 | $8,500 | 0.82 |
| Noah Gray | KC | TE | 6.33 | $2,600 | $3,900 | 2.43 | $7,000 | 0.90 |
| Blake Grupe | NO | K | 6.29 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.26 | $9,000 | 0.70 |
| Justin Watson | KC | WR | 6.24 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 1.84 | $9,500 | 0.66 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | KC | WR | 6.11 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 2.18 | $7,000 | 0.87 |
| Juwan Johnson | NO | TE | 5.88 | $2,200 | $3,300 | 2.67 | $7,500 | 0.78 |
| Saints | NO | DST | 5.52 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.53 | $8,500 | 0.65 |
| Jamaal Williams | NO | RB | 4.38 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 1.37 | $7,500 | 0.58 |
| Mecole Hardman | KC | WR | 4.01 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 3.34 | $6,000 | 0.67 |
| Carson Steele | KC | RB | 3.13 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 0.71 | $8,000 | 0.39 |
| Kendre Miller | NO | RB | 2.92 | $800 | $1,200 | 3.65 | $5,000 | 0.58 |
| Foster Moreau | NO | TE | 2.84 | $1,800 | $2,700 | 1.58 | $6,500 | 0.44 |
| Skyy Moore | KC | WR | 2.34 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 1.46 | $6,500 | 0.36 |
| Cedrick Wilson | NO | WR | 1.96 | $1,400 | $2,100 | 1.40 | $5,500 | 0.36 |
| Dallin Holker | NO | TE | 1.81 | $200 | $300 | 9.05 | $5,000 | 0.36 |
| Mason Tipton | NO | WR | 1.52 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 1.52 | $5,500 | 0.28 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Justin Watson: $3,400 DK / $9,500 FD
Even though he doesn’t project as well as some of the other values on the Chiefs, I like the usage that Justin Watson had last week after Rashee Rice left the game. He ran a route on 62% of dropbacks and had a 10% target share. If he can run into 4-to-6 targets tonight, he should easily pay off his price point (especially on DraftKings).
Saints vs. Chiefs Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 13-4
Juwan Johnson More Than 16.5 receiving yards (1.73x) – Sleeper Fantasy
CeeDee Lamb had 4 receptions in the first 20 minutes of last night’s game but only had 1 reception the rest of the game. We dust ourselves off and get back at it on Monday night. For this game, we are rolling with Juwan Johnson to get more than 16.5 receiving yards. Over the last 2 games, he has run a route on over 50% of dropbacks, while Foster Moreau has run a route on less than 20% of dropbacks. With Taysom Hill out, Johnson should have plenty of opportunities against the Chiefs, who had allowed more receptions and receiving yards to tight ends than any other team in the NFL heading into Week 5.
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Image Credit: Getty Images
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus