The NFL DFS Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Seahawks vs. Bears
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Seahawks vs. Bears, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Thursday Night Football matchup. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Seahawks vs. Bears
What a week! Christmas NBA and NFL slates, and now we have a Thursday Night Football game. I hope everyone had a great day with friends and family. I also hope the day proved to be profitable if you played DFS. The Seahawks have lost 2 games in a row but are still alive in the NFC playoff hunt. The Bears were 4-2 at one point this season. Unfortunately for Chicago fans, the team is riding a 9-game losing streak. Tonight’s game features a 4-point spread and a 42.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Kenneth Walker – Out
Seattle Seahawks Preview
Geno Smith has had an uncharacteristically low touchdown rate this season, yet he has still averaged 17 fantasy points per game. The Seahawks have had one of the highest pass rates above expectation, which has led to a lot of pass attempts for Smith. Given the nature of Showdown slates, he’s a strong option in all formats. I will note that despite the Bears being bad, they have been tough against the pass, ranking 3rd in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Let’s take a look at the wideout usage for the Seahawks over the last 4 games:
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 24% target share, 37% air yards share, 29% first-read rate
DK Metcalf: 18% target share, 34% air yards share, 30% first-read rate
Tyler Lockett: 5% target share, 8% air yards share, 6% first-read rate
Noah Fant: 15% target share, 17% air yards share, 15% first-read rate
After a quiet rookie season and a quiet start to this season, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has established himself as the clear WR1 for the Seahawks. Over the last 4 games, he has seen a 24% target share and a 37% air yards share. DK Metcalf has similar underlying metrics, but the efficiency hasn’t been the same. With the Bears being so tough against wide receivers (6th), I prefer JSN given his route tree (lining up all over the field and running a mix of short and deep routes). Tyler Lockett is cheap enough that he deserves consideration in all formats (especially on DraftKings). The Bears have struggled to defend tight ends, which puts Noah Fant on my radar. He has solid usage metrics over the last few games.
Kenneth Walker has been ruled out, which means Zach Charbonnet will have a clear path to 20+ touches in an elite matchup. The best way to move the ball against the Bears this season has been on the ground, as they are 28th in EPA against the run and 29th in fantasy points allowed to running backs. Charbonnet is also a big part of the passing game, which makes him gamescript-proof whenever he’s the lead back. He’s my favorite target at the multiplier (CPT/MVP) positions when it comes to Seattle.
The Bears have taken a lot of sacks and have turned the ball over quite a bit this season, so I don’t mind using the Seahawks D/ST in tournaments. Jason Myers is my preferred kicking target of the two.
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Chicago Bears Preview
Even though it’s been an up-and-down season for rookie Caleb Williams, he has certainly flashed some upside for DFS. Perhaps it helps that the Bears have been losing in a lot of these games, but he has scored over 25 fantasy points in 5 of his last 11 games. He’s shown more upside than the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Geno Smith, and many others. He draws a home matchup against the Seahawks, who are close to the league average in most passing metrics. I always like targeting the passing game of home underdogs, so I’ll be overweight on Williams and his pass catchers in this one.
Let’s take a look at the wideout usage for the Bears over the last 4 games:
DJ Moore: 31% target share, 28% air yards share, 43% first-read rate
Keenan Allen: 27% target share, 35% air yards share, 30% first-read rate
Rome Odunze: 18% target share, 31% air yards share, 17% first-read rate
Cole Kmet: 4% target share, 3% air yards share, 2% first-read rate
As strange as it sounds, Keenan Allen has shown more upside than any of the other wideouts on the Bears this season. He’s scored at least 20 fantasy points in 4 of the last 5 games. He has solid target and air yards shares to go along with a 30% first-read rate. A breakout game for DJ Moore seems imminent given his underlying usage. A 43% first-read rate over the last 4 games is one of the highest in the NFL during that stretch. Rome Odunze is also viable given his usage in the red zone. Cole Kmet has been an afterthought in the offense and is my least favorite wideout in this offense.
Roschon Johnson is expected back. While he doesn’t have a major role in the backfield, he does steal a lot of goal-line carries from D’Andre Swift, which lowers the appeal of Swift on this slate. It’s a decent matchup though, as the Seahawks are 20th in PFF’s grades against the run and 19th in fantasy points allowed to running backs. I prefer the passing game, but Swift is viable if you are building multiple lineups for tournaments.
The Bears haven’t been as bad defensively as most teams with only 4 wins on the season, but they are only viable in large-field tournaments. As noted earlier, if targeting a kicker in this game, I prefer Myers over Cairo Santos.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
I usually don’t have a clear favorite at the multiplier positions, but I have a hard time not using Zach Charbonnet at MVP and CPT in my main build. You can obviously mix it up if you are building multiple lineups, but he’s my favorite target if you are only building 1 lineup. I will be prioritizing both quarterbacks at FLEX/AnyFLEX and have my eye on all three of the Bears’ wide receivers. I don’t expect to have much exposure to the defenses.
Seahawks vs. Bears DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Charbonnet | SEA | RB | 19.97 | $8,400 | $12,600 | 2.38 | $11,000 | 1.82 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | QB | 18.35 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 1.95 | $14,500 | 1.27 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | QB | 17.24 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 1.80 | $14,000 | 1.23 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | WR | 16.71 | $10,200 | $15,300 | 1.64 | $15,000 | 1.11 |
| D.J. Moore | CHI | WR | 15.52 | $10,000 | $15,000 | 1.55 | $10,500 | 1.48 |
| Keenan Allen | CHI | WR | 14.01 | $9,800 | $14,700 | 1.43 | $12,000 | 1.17 |
| D’Andre Swift | CHI | RB | 13.10 | $7,600 | $11,400 | 1.72 | $10,000 | 1.31 |
| D.K. Metcalf | SEA | WR | 12.72 | $9,200 | $13,800 | 1.38 | $13,000 | 0.98 |
| Rome Odunze | CHI | WR | 9.87 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 1.41 | $9,500 | 1.04 |
| Seahawks | SEA | DST | 8.66 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 2.17 | $9,000 | 0.96 |
| Jason Myers | SEA | K | 7.70 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.54 | $9,000 | 0.86 |
| Noah Fant | SEA | TE | 7.21 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 2.00 | $7,500 | 0.96 |
| Cairo Santos | CHI | K | 6.70 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.40 | $8,500 | 0.79 |
| Tyler Lockett | SEA | WR | 6.53 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 2.04 | $8,000 | 0.82 |
| Bears | CHI | DST | 5.95 | $3,800 | $5,700 | 1.57 | $8,500 | 0.70 |
| Cole Kmet | CHI | TE | 5.27 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.20 | $8,000 | 0.66 |
| Kenny McIntosh | SEA | RB | 5.00 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 2.08 | $7,000 | 0.71 |
| Roschon Johnson | CHI | RB | 4.11 | $2,600 | $3,900 | 1.58 | $7,500 | 0.55 |
| AJ Barner | SEA | TE | 2.51 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 0.84 | $7,000 | 0.36 |
| Pharaoh Brown | SEA | TE | 1.29 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 0.81 | $6,000 | 0.22 |
| Jake Bobo | SEA | WR | 1.27 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 0.64 | $6,500 | 0.20 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Noah Fant: $3,600 DK / $7,500 FD
It doesn’t look like Fant is going to garner much ownership, even though the Bears have been worse at defending tight ends (19th) than they have wide receivers (6th). Over the last 4 games, Fant has a 15% target share, a 17% air yards share, and a 15% first-read rate. Those are solid usage metrics for a tight end who finds himself in a favorable matchup.
Seahawks vs. Bears Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 27-24
Zach Charbonnet more than 94.5 rushing + receiving yards (1.62x) – Sleeper Fantasy
The best way to move the ball against the Bears has been through the running back position. They have allowed the 2nd-most rushing yards and 15th-most receiving yards to running backs this season. With Kenneth Walker out and a need to win this game, Charbonnet will likely play on 80% or more of the snaps. He has a good chance of topping 20 touches in an exploitable matchup. I prefer the rushing + receiving number just in case the game script doesn’t go as planned.
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Image Credit: Getty Images
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus