The NFL DFS Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Steelers vs. Browns
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Steelers vs. Browns, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Thursday Night Football matchup. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Steelers vs. Browns
Happy Thursday! While tonight’s game should be competitive, it’s not expected to be the most entertaining for those who like points. The Steelers and Browns have two of the best defenses in the NFL and are division rivals. The Steelers have won 5 games in a row and sit atop the AFC North with a record of 8-2. The Browns have lost 2 games in a row and have dropped to 2-8 overall. They must be among the most talented 2-8 teams we’ve seen over the last 10 years. Tonight’s game features a 3.5-point spread and a 36.5-point total.
We do have to keep an eye on the NFL weather page, as there could be some wind and rain in the forecast.
Key Injuries
None
Pittsburgh Steelers Preview
It was not a popular decision when Mike Tomlin made the quarterback swap from Justin Fields to Russell Wilson. The Steelers were 4-2 at the time and winning close games. However, the swap looks incredible in hindsight. While I have always been a fan of Fields, he’s a better fantasy quarterback than a real-life quarterback. Wilson gives this team a better chance to win games against the best teams in the NFL. He doesn’t offer much rushing upside, but his high median projection makes him a strong play in all formats. The Browns are 16th in EPA against the pass and 11th in fantasy points allowed per game to quarterbacks.
Let’s take a look at the wideout usage with Wilson under center this season (Weeks 7-11):
George Pickens: 27% target share, 47% air yards share, 38% first-read rate
Calvin Austin: 12% target share, 16% air yards share, 13% first-read rate
Van Jefferson: 9% target share, 14% air yards share, 12% first-read rate
Pat Freiermuth: 7% target share, 4% air yards share, 9% first-read rate
With Wilson at the helm, it’s basically been George Pickens and then everyone else. He has massive target and air yards shares and has been the first read on 38% of dropbacks. The only downside is that he’ll draw a lot of coverage from Denzel Ward, who is still one of the best outside cornerbacks in the NFL. I’m willing to chase volume here. We know Wilson loves to throw outside, and he clearly has a favorite target in Pickens.
Pat Freiermuth has nearly disappeared in this offense. He hasn’t seen more than 3 targets in any of the 4 games with Wilson under center. Again, Wilson wants to throw the ball outside the numbers. Calvin Austin has been the primary slot receiver for the Steelers, but most of those routes are over the middle of the field. Van Jefferson is my favorite value play from Pittsburgh, as he runs most of his routes out wide and could see a couple of extra targets if Ward can hold Pickens in check.
The Steelers have one of the highest rush rates in the league and will try to establish the run early in this game. We have some conflicting data here, as the Browns are somehow 2nd in PFF’s grades against the run and 25th in EPA against the run. They have held opposing backs to the 7th fewest fantasy points per game this season. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren will continue to split work, while we could see a handful of snaps for Cordarrelle Patterson. The running game could see a boost if the weather gets ugly.
The Steelers are 1st in PFF’s pass rush grades this season and are facing Jameis Winston without his starting left tackle. Enough said. Kicker Chris Boswell is my favorite point-per-dollar option on the slate. The Steelers should be able to move the ball in this one, but they could struggle to score touchdowns in the red zone.
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Cleveland Browns Preview
There are few things I love more than a Jameis Winston interview, whether it’s before the game, during the game, or after the game. He’s an absolute character. He also makes the Browns offense a lot more appealing for DFS. The Browns have lost the last couple of games, but he did lead them to a win over the Ravens and has topped 25 fantasy points in 2 of the last 3 games. He draws a very difficult matchup tonight against the Steelers, who have an elite pass rush and are top 5 in most pass defense metrics. Winston is viable here, but I prefer to look elsewhere at CPT on DraftKings.
Let’s take a look at the wideout usage with Winston under center this season:
Jerry Jeudy: 22% target share, 29% air yards share, 26% first-read rate
Cedric Tillman: 20% target share, 30% air yards share, 24% first-read rate
Elijah Moore: 21% target share, 30% air yards share, 23% first-read rate
David Njoku: 17% target share, 8% air yards share, 14% first-read rate
If you were to ask casual NFL fans (or even hardcore ones) who the top wideouts were on the Browns, most would immediately say Cedric Tillman and David Njoku. However, with Wilson under center, Jerry Jeudy leads the team in target share and Elijah Moore is close to team highs in target share, air yards share, and first-read rate. Surprisingly, Njoku is 4th on the Browns in all three of those usage metrics. Moore is going to be my highest-owned wideout here, as he runs 69% of his routes from the slot. He’ll avoid coverage from outside cornerback Joey Porter. Even though the usage hasn’t been there for Njoku, his matchup is boosted with Alex Highsmith being out for the Steelers.
Nick Chubb is a tough sell in DFS right now. Even when he was in his prime, he needed 100+ rushing yards and at least 1 touchdown to have a good fantasy outing because he’s never involved in the passing game. In 4 games this season, he has 53 carries and 2 receptions. The matchup is better with Highsmith out, but Chubb will need a good game script to have a ceiling game. With the Browns trailing last week, Jerome Ford ended up playing twice as many snaps as Chubb. Ford is essentially half the price as Chubb on both FanDuel and DraftKings. The one route for Chubb to get there tonight is if the weather impacts the passing game. Bad weather only helps his outlook.
The Browns have the highest pressure rate in the NFL, and the Steelers have struggled with pass-blocking, so there’s a path for Cleveland’s defense to have a nice outing here. I plan to have exposure to both defenses. With the low total, kicking points could be the key to the slate. Dustin Hopkins is viable in all formats.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
This is not an exciting Showdown slate. The game features one of the lowest totals (36.5 points) that we have seen all season. Both of these defenses are capable and can put pressure on the quarterback, so I want to be overweight on them in tournaments. For cash games and tournaments, I want to be overweight on the kickers, especially Chris Boswell. I don’t have any strong takes on the Steelers’ offense, but I plan to have a ton of exposure to Elijah Moore and David Njoku on Cleveland’s side of the ball.
Steelers vs. Browns DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | PIT | WR | 15.35 | $11,000 | $16,500 | 1.40 | $13,500 | 1.14 |
| Russell Wilson | PIT | QB | 15.19 | $10,000 | $15,000 | 1.52 | $15,500 | 0.98 |
| Najee Harris | PIT | RB | 13.92 | $9,200 | $13,800 | 1.51 | $12,000 | 1.16 |
| Jameis Winston | CLE | QB | 13.03 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 1.36 | $15,000 | 0.87 |
| Cedric Tillman | CLE | WR | 11.03 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 1.58 | $10,500 | 1.05 |
| Jerry Jeudy | CLE | WR | 11.02 | $8,000 | $12,000 | 1.38 | $11,000 | 1.00 |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT | RB | 9.96 | $6,200 | $9,300 | 1.61 | $9,000 | 1.11 |
| David Njoku | CLE | TE | 9.91 | $7,600 | $11,400 | 1.30 | $12,500 | 0.79 |
| Steelers | PIT | DST | 8.70 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.61 | $9,500 | 0.92 |
| Elijah Moore | CLE | WR | 7.96 | $6,400 | $9,600 | 1.24 | $9,000 | 0.88 |
| Nick Chubb | CLE | RB | 7.83 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 0.87 | $11,500 | 0.68 |
| Dustin Hopkins | CLE | K | 6.81 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.42 | $8,500 | 0.80 |
| Chris Boswell | PIT | K | 6.49 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.30 | $10,000 | 0.65 |
| Jerome Ford | CLE | RB | 6.26 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.42 | $8,000 | 0.78 |
| Browns | CLE | DST | 5.97 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.49 | $8,500 | 0.70 |
| Pat Freiermuth | PIT | TE | 5.82 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.62 | $8,000 | 0.73 |
| Calvin Austin | PIT | WR | 5.67 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 2.84 | $7,500 | 0.76 |
| Mike Williams | PIT | WR | 4.15 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 1.30 | $9,500 | 0.44 |
| Jordan Akins | CLE | TE | 3.50 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 2.19 | $7,500 | 0.47 |
| Van Jefferson | PIT | WR | 2.92 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 1.04 | $6,500 | 0.45 |
| Darnell Washington | PIT | TE | 2.69 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 1.12 | $7,000 | 0.38 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | PIT | RB | 2.51 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 2.51 | $6,000 | 0.42 |
| Pierre Strong | CLE | RB | 1.70 | $400 | $600 | 4.25 | $7,000 | 0.24 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Chris Boswell: $5,000 DK / $10,000 FD
We currently have Chris Boswell projected for less than 20% ownership, which feels like a mistake by the field. The Steelers haven’t been great in the red zone, but they’ve had no issue moving the ball against good defenses. Boswell has averaged 13 fantasy points per game this season and has made at least 3 field goals in 3 of his last 5 games. He’s also 29-for-30 on field goals this season. With this game having a low total, kicking points might be the difference-maker on the slate.
Steelers vs. Browns Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 25-13
Chris Boswell more than 7.5 kicking points (1.75x) – Sleeper Fantasy
We are on a 4-pick win streak over the last 4 primetime games. Let’s keep it going with Chris Boswell to get more than 7.5 kicking points. Now, it’s important to note that these aren’t fantasy points, so a 50-yard field goal doesn’t count as 5 fantasy points. It counts as 3 kicking points. For this to hit, we need 2 touchdowns and 2 field goals or at least 3 field goals. I prefer this instead of the more than 1.5 field goals made, as the odds are much better. Even with rain/snow in the forecast, I like Boswell tonight.
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Image Credit: Getty Images
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus