The NFL Grind Down: Sunday Morning Football - Titans vs. Ravens
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Titans vs. Ravens, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Sunday Morning Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Titans vs. Ravens
We have another London game on tap this Sunday, although this one doesn’t feature the Jaguars. The Ravens and Titans are both coming off of close divisional losses but are still playoff hopefuls with 12 games remaining in the season. According to THE BLITZ, this game projects to have the second-fewest amount of plays in Week 6. This game doesn’t exactly scream fantasy production, so it’s likely a positive that it’s not featured on the main slate. The Ravens are listed as 4-point favorites, and the total is set at 42 points.
Key Injuries
Treylon Burks – Out
Tennessee Titans Preview
The Titans are technically the home team, but this will be played on a neutral field at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. It’s been a real struggle for Ryan Tannehill this season, as he’s been held under 14 fantasy points in four of five games. The sledding doesn’t get any easier in this matchup, as the Ravens are ranked 4th or better in pass DVOA, dropback EPA, and fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. This is a rare Showdown slate where I am actually considering fading one of the quarterbacks in lieu of other options.
It’s been a much closer split in this backfield than most expected. Here are the usage stats for Tennessee’s running backs the first five weeks:
- Derrick Henry – 57% snap rate, 86 carries, 9 targets, 429 yards from scrimmage, 2 touchdowns
- Tyjae Spears – 51% snap rate, 27 carries, 19 targets, 219 yards from scrimmage, 1 touchdown
Henry has dominated the rush share and has had his two biggest fantasy outings this season in the two Titans wins. Spears has been much more involved in the passing game and has had his best outings in the games the Titans have lost. It’s pretty clear that game script dictates usage in this backfield. I like the idea of building multiple lineups — some where you play the angle of Tennessee jumping out to a lead (Henry) and others where Baltimore jumps out to a lead (Spears).
Treylon Burks missed last week’s game and has already been ruled out of the London game. DeAndre Hopkins has been dealing with injuries to start the season but seems to be close to full strength after playing a season-high 84% of the snaps last week. He caught 8-of-11 targets for 140 yards and nearly caught a long touchdown. The Ravens have been tough against the pass but are league average in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. We can bank on volume for Hopkins once again.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Kyle Philips will fill out three-receiver sets, although neither has been productive this season. Westbrook-Ikhine is the preferred target of the two, as he’s cheap and did see 3 targets last week. The Titans love their tight ends, as Chigoziem Okonkwo, Trevon Wesco, and Josh Whyle all recorded at least 1 catch in Week 5. The Ravens have allowed the 2nd-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season, but game script could lead to more passing than usual for the Titans.
As far as the defense goes, they are built to stop the run. They struggle against the pass and struggle to get pressure (26th) on opposing quarterbacks.
Baltimore Ravens Preview
Try as I might, I don’t see a way around using Lamar Jackson at MVP and Captain on this Showdown slate. There are typically a handful of options that could be the leading scorer in any given game, but I’m not seeing much of a path in this one for those not named Jackson. Maybe the Titans are able to establish the run and Henry has one of his patented breakout games, but I have a hard time seeing it given their offensive line and how good the Ravens have been against the run.
Even though the Ravens lost to the Steelers last week, Jackson was the highest-graded quarterback of the week. He got no help from his wideouts, as they consistently dropped passes thrown right to them. Jackson has topped 45 rushing yards in three of his last four games and faces one of the biggest pass-funnel matchups in the league. The Titans are ranked 8th in DVOA against the run and 26th in DVOA against the pass. I’ll let the field overthink this one and will be locking Jackson at MVP and Captain.
With both running backs healthy in Week 5, we saw a pretty even split between Gus Edwards and Justice Hill. Edwards continues to handle most of the early-down work, while Hill handles most of the obvious passing downs. Both have a tough draw this week, as the Titans have long been known for their run defense. We have both projected for around 7.5 fantasy points in this one, making them secondary options on this Showdown slate.
Zay Flowers is an exciting young receiver, but his usage the first three games was concerning. He had one of the lowest aDOTs in the league. However, he’s posted double-digit aDOTs in each of the last two games, meaning he’s getting more work down the field. He’s been close to a big outing a couple of times, and we could easily see it happen against the Titans, who have allowed the 7th-most fantasy points to wide receivers.
Nelson Agholor, Odell Beckham, Rashod Bateman, and Devin Duvernay round out the receiving room. I don’t mind mixing-and-matching them in lineups given the favorable matchup. I have a small lean to Agholor, who has taken over as the slot receiver. Mark Andrews is coming off of his best two games of the season and is a strong option to pair with Jackson. The Titans have been tough on tight ends thus far (8th), but that could be a small sample issue. Their pass defense as a whole is atrocious.
The Ravens defense has more appeal than the Titans defense in this game. Baltimore has the 4th-most sacks per game this season, while Tennessee has allowed the 7th-most sacks per game. We might also see a game script where the Titans are forced to air it out in the second half.
Lineup Construction Ideas
My favorite construction is a full Ravens onslaught. There are paths for all of the Titans’ key players to have a bad outing here. Tannehill has struggled all season, and we could see the Ravens sell out to stop the run. We know Jackson is going to have a strong game for Baltimore, and there are a number of ways we can build stacks around him. The Ravens defense is firmly in play, as is one of the all-time kickers in Justin Tucker.
My favorite build is starting with Jackson at MVP and Captain and then using Flowers, Tucker, and Hopkins as the other key pieces.
Titans-Ravens DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | QB | 21.61 | $12,800 | $19,200 | 1.69 | $17,000 | 1.27 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | TEN | WR | 17.91 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 1.91 | $12,500 | 1.43 |
| Zay Flowers | BAL | WR | 15.70 | $8,200 | $12,300 | 1.91 | $11,500 | 1.37 |
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | QB | 15.29 | $9,200 | $13,800 | 1.66 | $13,500 | 1.13 |
| Derrick Henry | TEN | RB | 13.96 | $10,000 | $15,000 | 1.40 | $16,000 | 0.87 |
| Mark Andrews | BAL | TE | 12.46 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 1.38 | $14,000 | 0.89 |
| Tyjae Spears | TEN | RB | 10.72 | $7,400 | $11,100 | 1.45 | $8,500 | 1.26 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | TEN | TE | 8.45 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.69 | $8,000 | 1.06 |
| Justin Tucker | BAL | K | 7.59 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.58 | $9,500 | 0.80 |
| Justice Hill | BAL | RB | 7.51 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.39 | $10,500 | 0.72 |
| Ravens | BAL | DST | 7.22 | $4,600 | $6,900 | 1.57 | $9,500 | 0.76 |
| Gus Edwards | BAL | RB | 7.09 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.36 | $11,000 | 0.64 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | TEN | WR | 7.01 | $2,600 | $3,900 | 2.70 | $10,000 | 0.70 |
| Nick Folk | TEN | K | 6.70 | $4,200 | $6,300 | 1.60 | $9,000 | 0.74 |
| Odell Beckham | BAL | WR | 5.88 | $6,200 | $9,300 | 0.95 | $7,500 | 0.78 |
| Titans | TEN | DST | 5.41 | $3,800 | $5,700 | 1.42 | $9,000 | 0.60 |
| Kyle Philips | TEN | WR | 5.39 | $200 | $300 | 26.95 | $5,000 | 1.08 |
| Nelson Agholor | BAL | WR | 4.55 | $5,600 | $8,400 | 0.81 | $8,000 | 0.57 |
| Rashod Bateman | BAL | WR | 4.39 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 1.29 | $7,500 | 0.59 |
| Chris Moore | TEN | WR | 2.18 | $200 | $300 | 10.90 | $7,000 | 0.31 |
| Isaiah Likely | BAL | TE | 1.31 | $200 | $300 | 6.55 | $6,000 | 0.22 |
| Devin Duvernay | BAL | WR | 1.19 | $600 | $900 | 1.98 | $6,500 | 0.18 |
| Josh Whyle | TEN | TE | 1.15 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 0.96 | $5,000 | 0.23 |
| Trevon Wesco | TEN | TE | 0.86 | $800 | $1,200 | 1.08 | $5,500 | 0.16 |
| Patrick Ricard | BAL | RB | 0.47 | $400 | $600 | 1.18 | $5,000 | 0.09 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Zay Flowers – $8,200 DK / $12,300 FD
I expect most to side with Andrews if choosing an expensive wideout from the Ravens, so hopefully Flowers will fly under the radar a bit. As noted earlier, his aDOT has been in double-digits in each of the last two games. He had a long catch go right through his hands last week and had another open-field opportunity that they just missed on. The Ravens are forcing targets his way, and this might be his best matchup to date.
Titans vs. Ravens Player Props
Lamar Jackson Over 225.5 Passing Yards (1.77x) – Sleeper
What do we know here?
We know that Todd Monken wants to get this passing game going, and we know that the Titans are one of the biggest pass-funnels in the NFL. This seems like a perfect spot for the Ravens to be aggressive downfield. They are unlikely to get much going on the ground, and over the last couple of seasons, Tennessee has been fairly good at limiting rushing production for quarterbacks as well. If Jackson drops back 35 times in this one, he should get to 226 passing yards with ease.