The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Vikings vs. Lions
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Vikings vs. Lions, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Sunday Night Football matchup. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Vikings vs. Lions
The final game of the NFL regular season is upon us, and it’s arguably the most important one that we have had all season. The winner of this game will win the NFC North and claim the top seed in the NFC (which secures a first-round bye). Tonight’s game features a 3-point spread and a 56.5-point total, so we can expect some fireworks in this one. Let’s dive right into what should be a tremendous Showdown slate.
Key Injuries
David Montgomery – Out
Craig Reynolds – Questionable
Kalif Raymond – Questionable
Minnesota Vikings Preview
Sam Darnold got off to a hot start this season, then had a stretch where he struggled, and now he’s back to playing great football. Over his last 7 games, he has scored at least 22 fantasy points 5 times. With the Vikings being underdogs and the Lions having one of the best run defenses in the NFL, we can expect a lot of dropbacks for Darnold in this game. On the season, Detroit has allowed the 6th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Both quarterbacks are going to be priorities for me.
Let’s take a look at the wideout usage for the Vikings over the last 4 games:
Justin Jefferson: 29% target share, 40% air yards share, 37% first-read rate
Jordan Addison: 23% target share, 33% air yards share, 26% first-read rate
Jalen Nailor: 6% target share, 8% air yards share, 17% first-read rate
T.J. Hockenson: 15% target share, 18% air yards share, 7% first-read rate
Justin Jefferson has really turned it on over the last 5 games. During that stretch, he’s had at least 7 receptions in every game and has averaged over 10 targets. He’s also scored 5 touchdowns in the last 4 games. The recent numbers are promising, as is his history against the Lions. Here are his fantasy point totals against Detroit: 21, 39, 29, 36, 4, 39, 22, and 25. He’s one of the top MVP and CPT targets.
Jordan Addison is technically a WR2, but he sees WR1 type of usage (23% target share, 33% air yards share) in an elite offense. The matchup is great for both receivers, as the Lions have allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Jalen Nailor could always get there, but he’s best suited in tournaments. This is a revenge game for T.J. Hockenson, but the Lions have done a tremendous job against tight ends this season (2nd-fewest fantasy points allowed).
Aaron Jones has scored double-digit fantasy points in 14 of 16 games this season. He’s been consistent, but he has only topped 20 fantasy points 3 times all season. He’ll certainly need to hit that mark if he’s going to find his way into the optimal lineup on this Showdown slate. The main problem is a matchup against the Lions, who are 9th in EPA against the run and 4th in fantasy points allowed per game. I’ll take my chances with a fade.
Given the 56.5-point total and how good these offenses have been all season, I want no part of the defenses on this slate. Kicker Will Reichard is a decent value option.
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Detroit Lions Preview
Jared Goff has been terrific in competitive games where the Lions have been forced to air the ball out. Over the last 4 games, he has averaged nearly 40 pass attempts and over 30 fantasy points. I still expect the Lions to succeed on the ground, but the matchup certainly sets up well for the passing game. The Vikings have a top-2 run defense and are mediocre at best against the pass. Goff is viable in all formats, although he’s not my favorite target at MVP and CPT.
Let’s take a look at the wideout usage for the Lions over the last 4 games:
Amon-Ra St. Brown: 25% target share, 32% air yards share, 32% first-read rate
Jameson Williams: 17% target share, 25% air yards share, 21% first-read rate
Tim Patrick: 10% target share, 15% air yards share, 11% first-read rate
Sam LaPorta: 19% target share, 26% air yards share, 19% first-read rate
Amon-Ra St. Brown hasn’t been as consistent as last season, but he certainly still has a massive ceiling. His performance largely hinges on how many dropbacks Goff has each game, and I’m expecting the Lions to air it out quite a bit in this one. While I love St. Brown, the difficult part is where to rank him in the hierarchy of plays on this slate. I personally have him behind Jahmyr Gibbs, Justin Jefferson, and Sam Darnold.
Jameson Williams is a more affordable wideout on the Lions. He doesn’t have a high target share, but he continues to get shots downfield. Tim Patrick is also viable, as he has a 10% target share and a 15% air yards share over the last 4 games. It’s a great matchup for the receivers, as the Vikings have allowed the most fantasy points to the position this season. Sam LaPorta has a massive air yards share (26%) over the last 4 games and is a good bet to score a touchdown.
Jahmyr Gibbs has a difficult matchup against the Vikings, who are 3rd or better in PFF’s grades against the run, EPA against the run, and fantasy points allowed to running backs this season. However, Gibbs is one of the most explosive running backs in the NFL, he runs behind the best offensive line in the NFL, and he has seen 51 touches in the last 2 games without David Montgomery. He’s such a vital part of this offense that I don’t care about a difficult matchup on paper. He’s my favorite play at MVP and CPT.
As I said earlier, I want no part of the defenses in this game. I do see a path for kicker Jake Bates to find a way into the optimal lineup.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
This is one of those slates where almost EVERYONE is viable. My favorite MVP and CPT targets are Justin Jefferson and Jahmyr Gibbs, but there are so many good options at the multiplier positions (especially on DraftKings). With such a high total, I’m not going to waste any roster spots on the defenses.
Vikings vs. Lions DFS Salaries & Projections
Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | RB | 25.15 | $11,600 | $17,400 | 2.17 | $13,500 | 1.86 |
Sam Darnold | MIN | QB | 22.26 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 2.37 | $14,000 | 1.59 |
Justin Jefferson | MIN | WR | 22.02 | $11,400 | $17,100 | 1.93 | $15,000 | 1.47 |
Jared Goff | DET | QB | 21.58 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 2.25 | $14,500 | 1.49 |
Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | 21.47 | $10,600 | $15,900 | 2.03 | $13,000 | 1.65 |
Jordan Addison | MIN | WR | 15.20 | $7,400 | $11,100 | 2.05 | $11,000 | 1.38 |
Aaron Jones | MIN | RB | 15.08 | $8,400 | $12,600 | 1.80 | $11,500 | 1.31 |
Jameson Williams | DET | WR | 14.55 | $7,600 | $11,400 | 1.91 | $10,500 | 1.39 |
Sam LaPorta | DET | TE | 12.81 | $5,800 | $8,700 | 2.21 | $10,000 | 1.28 |
T.J. Hockenson | MIN | TE | 11.38 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 2.11 | $9,500 | 1.20 |
Will Reichard | MIN | K | 8.21 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.71 | $9,000 | 0.91 |
Jake Bates | DET | K | 8.00 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.60 | $9,000 | 0.89 |
Cam Akers | MIN | RB | 6.17 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 1.81 | $7,500 | 0.82 |
Vikings | MIN | DST | 5.92 | $3,800 | $5,700 | 1.56 | $8,500 | 0.70 |
Lions | DET | DST | 5.65 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.41 | $8,500 | 0.66 |
Tim Patrick | DET | WR | 4.38 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.22 | $8,000 | 0.55 |
Jalen Nailor | MIN | WR | 4.00 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 0.91 | $8,000 | 0.50 |
Craig Reynolds | DET | RB | 3.44 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 1.15 | $7,500 | 0.46 |
Josh Oliver | MIN | TE | 3.42 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 2.85 | $7,000 | 0.49 |
Kalif Raymond | DET | WR | 3.37 | $200 | $300 | 16.85 | $5,000 | 0.67 |
Sione Vaki | DET | RB | 2.30 | $200 | $300 | 11.50 | $6,000 | 0.38 |
Brock Wright | DET | TE | 1.31 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 0.82 | $7,000 | 0.19 |
Johnny Mundt | MIN | TE | 1.04 | $600 | $900 | 1.73 | $6,500 | 0.16 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Tim Patrick: $3,600 DK / $8,000 FD
With so many great spend-up options on this slate, we need some value that we can rely on. Over the last 4 games, Tim Patrick has some solid usage metrics, such as a 10% target share, a 15% air yards share, and an 11% first-read rate. It’s an elite matchup, as the Vikings have allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers this season.
Vikings vs. Lions Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 28-26
Justin Jefferson more than 94.5 receiving yards (1.67x) – Sleeper Fantasy
This is the most important game of the season for the Vikings. The Lions are elite against the run, yet they have allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Jefferson has seen at least 11 targets in each of the last 3 games and has an incredible track record against Detroit.
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Image Credit: Getty Images
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus