The NFL Grind Down: Monday Night Football - Vikings vs. Niners
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Vikings vs. Niners, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Monday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Vikings vs. Niners
Before we officially put Week 7 in the books, we have one more game on the schedule. We have a Monday night battle between two NFC playoff teams from last season. I doubt both of these teams will make the playoffs this year, although I feel pretty good about one of the teams. The Niners are looking to bounce back after a tough loss against the Browns, while the Vikings are looking for any momentum that they can find. This game features a 6.5-point spread and a 44.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Justin Jefferson – Out
Deebo Samuel – Out
Christian McCaffrey – Questionable/Probable
Minnesota Vikings Preview
A year after the Vikings won every close game and seemingly caught all of the breaks imaginable, it’s been the complete opposite this season. They lost their star player to injury and the team has already lost four one-score games. I suppose the good news is that they have been one score away in each game from having a perfect record. Kirk Cousins got off to a red-hot start this season but has struggled without Justin Jefferson in the lineup. In his first full game without him, Cousins only scored 9.7 fantasy points (against the Bears!). He has a brutal track record in primetime games and a tough road ahead on Monday night, as the Niners are 1st in pass DVOA and 2nd in pressure rate this season.
Jordan Addison and K.J. Osborn were every-down players without Jefferson in the lineup last week. Their underlying usage wasn’t all that encouraging (five targets each), but Cousins only threw for 174 yards and Addison did find the endzone. Both players are viable at their respective price points. If you are looking for a punt, Brandon Powell appears to be the clear WR3 and based on the spread, the Vikings will likely be trailing in this game. We could see a lot of three-receiver sets. T.J. Hockenson remains the most reliable option in this passing attack and racked up a 26% target share last week. A matchup against the Niners is difficult (fourth against tight ends), but the game script and volume should be in his favor.
The Vikings said that they would ride the hot-hand at running back, but that hasn’t really been the case. Alexander Mattison has been the feature back, Cam Akers has mixed in here and there, and Ty Chandler has become a non-factor. At this point, it’s hard to make a case for anyone not-named Mattison in this backfield. He has a clear path to 15+ touches on Monday night and the Niners have actually been much worse against the run (22nd in DVOA) than they have been against the pass (first). Game script is a concern, but Mattison does has at least six targets in three games this season.
We should never say never in the NFL, but I don’t see a need to roster the Vikings D/ST here. They are a middling defense with a middling pass rush. Greg Joseph is a reasonable option in showdown, although I do tend to worry about kickers on teams that are large underdogs.
San Francisco 49ers Preview
It will be interesting to see how the Niners respond after losing to the Browns and receiving some bad injury news. Deebo Samuel is set to miss at least three games with a hairline fracture in his shoulder (ouch). Brock Purdy is coming off of a brutal game against the Browns, but we can forgive him given the injuries in that game and the fact that they were playing against the best defense in the NFL. He should rebound nicely against a Vikings team that has allowed the ninth most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.
Let me throw some splits at you — in the games that Samuel has missed the last three seasons, George Kittle has averaged 25.2 fantasy points (11.5 with him in the lineup) and Brandon Aiyuk has averaged 15.1 fantasy points (12.3 with him in the lineup). While this doesn’t mean we can’t play Aiyuk or that he’s not a strong option, Kittle clearly gets the bigger boost with Samuel is off the field. Given the inconsistency of Kittle, I expect him to be the lower-owned of the two.
Jauan Jennings will slide into the WR2 role, while Ray-Ray McCloud and Ronnie Bell will see some snaps as well. Salary aside, Jennings is the preferred target given his expected route share, but all three can be included in your large-field tournament builds. In terms of the matchup, the Vikings are 29th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and 16th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends this season.
While we know Samuel is going to be out, we are still waiting to see if Christian McCaffrey is able to suit up. C-Mac was unable to return to last week’s game with an oblique injury, but was able to practice on a limited basis this week. If he’s active, he becomes a main priority for the slate. If he’s out, I’m thankful that the sites played this one correctly. Both Elijah Mitchell and Jordan Mason are priced up to the point where they aren’t free squares. Mitchell would be my preferred target of the two, but I would have builds with both backs.
The Niners D/ST is firmly in play on Monday night. We have the Kirk Cousins primetime narrative and we have the fact that the Niners are dominant defensively. They get a ton of pressure on the quarterback and they are facing a team that could barely move the ball against the Bears in Week 6. If playing a kicker in this game, I’ll side with the one on the team that is favored (Jake Moody).
Thoughts on Lineup Construction
As always, you should try to build a story into each lineup that you build for showdown. It’s hard for me to envision a Vikings onslaught being in the optimal lineup, but we could certainly see it happen with the Niners onslaught. Brock Purdy has consistently thrown for two or more touchdowns in starts throughout his career, Christian McCaffrey has scored a touchdown in an absurd 15 straight games, and both George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk should see upticks in target share with Deebo Samuel out.
Vikings-Niners DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | RB | 21.80 | $12,000 | $18,000 | 1.82 | $17,500 | 1.25 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | SF | WR | 20.42 | $10,800 | $16,200 | 1.89 | $14,000 | 1.46 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | QB | 19.24 | $10,200 | $15,300 | 1.89 | $15,500 | 1.24 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | QB | 17.50 | $10,600 | $15,900 | 1.65 | $15,000 | 1.17 |
| Jordan Addison | MIN | WR | 15.05 | $7,600 | $11,400 | 1.98 | $11,500 | 1.31 |
| T.J. Hockenson | MIN | TE | 15.01 | $8,800 | $13,200 | 1.71 | $12,000 | 1.25 |
| Alexander Mattison | MIN | RB | 13.18 | $6,600 | $9,900 | 2.00 | $12,500 | 1.05 |
| K.J. Osborn | MIN | WR | 12.73 | $6,400 | $9,600 | 1.99 | $9,500 | 1.34 |
| George Kittle | SF | TE | 11.80 | $7,200 | $10,800 | 1.64 | $10,000 | 1.18 |
| Brandon Powell | MIN | WR | 8.91 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 3.18 | $7,500 | 1.19 |
| Jake Moody | SF | K | 7.95 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.47 | $8,500 | 0.94 |
| Jauan Jennings | SF | WR | 7.93 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.98 | $8,000 | 0.99 |
| 49ers | SF | DST | 7.62 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.52 | $9,000 | 0.85 |
| Greg Joseph | MIN | K | 6.50 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.48 | $8,500 | 0.76 |
| Elijah Mitchell | SF | RB | 5.65 | $5,600 | $8,400 | 1.01 | $11,000 | 0.51 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | SF | WR | 4.85 | $2,200 | $3,300 | 2.20 | $7,000 | 0.69 |
| Cam Akers | MIN | RB | 4.62 | $1,800 | $2,700 | 2.57 | $8,000 | 0.58 |
| Vikings | MIN | DST | 3.87 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 1.14 | $9,000 | 0.43 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | SF | RB | 2.67 | $600 | $900 | 4.45 | $5,500 | 0.49 |
| Josh Oliver | MIN | TE | 2.55 | $200 | $300 | 12.75 | $6,500 | 0.39 |
| Jordan Mason | SF | RB | 2.05 | $5,800 | $8,700 | 0.35 | $10,500 | 0.20 |
| Ronnie Bell | SF | WR | 1.77 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 1.77 | $7,500 | 0.24 |
| C.J. Ham | MIN | RB | 0.92 | $200 | $300 | 4.60 | $5,500 | 0.17 |
Fantasy Sleepers
George Kittle: $7,200 DK / $10,000 FD
Assuming Christian McCaffrey is able to suit up, I expect him and the two quarterbacks to be building blocks for most of the field. The fact that George Kittle is expensive and that he’s coming off of a game where he only caught a single pass should help on the ownership front. As noted above, he has averaged 25.2 fantasy points per game with Deebo Samuel out of the lineup over the last three seasons.
Vikings vs. Niners Player Props
T.J. Hockenson over 49.5 yards (1.77x) – Sleeper
While we are still riding a hot streak with the player props section of this article, the Sunday night game was as brutal of a break as you will see. We had D’Andre Swift over 62.5 rushing yards and he finished the game with 62. Those are the breaks when you play a binary game like player props. We’ll look to bounce back with T.J. Hockenson over 49.5 receiving yards. He has seen at least eight targets in every game but one this season and the Vikings are likely to be trailing in this one. The Niners have been tough on tight ends, but I’m willing to bank on volume and talent.