The NFL Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Vikings vs. Packers
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In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Vikings vs. Packers, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Sunday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Vikings vs. Packers
We don’t have a Monday night game this week, so this will be the final game of Week 17. While these two NFC North teams have no chance of winning their division, they are both still alive in the playoff hunt. The winner of this game will have about a 50% chance of making the playoffs (that’s before all of the other games have been played). By the time Sunday evening rolls around, that percentage could be higher or lower. While both teams are dealing with a bunch of injuries offensively, we can expect a competitive game. This features a 1-point spread and a 43-point total.
Before we get into the game breakdown, I want to wish everyone a Happy New Year! If you are going out, please be safe and call an Uber if needed.
Key Injuries
T.J. Hockenson – Out
Jordan Addison – Questionable
Christian Watson – Doubtful
Luke Musgrave – Doubtful
Dontayvion Wicks – Questionable
Minnesota Vikings Preview
The Vikings have dealt with injuries at every key position on offense. They are officially on their fourth starting quarterback. Kirk Cousins, Joshua Dobbs, and Nick Mullens are all either hurt or have been benched. You know your quarterback play has been bad when you decide to start a 5th-round rookie in an important game toward the end of the season. Jaren Hall has a very wide range of outcomes in this game, but he does offer rushing upside. He also draws an elite matchup against the Packers, who are 22nd in sacks per game and 30th in DVOA against the pass this season. There’s a path for Hall to get there at MVP and CPT, but I prefer using him in the FLEX.
T.J. Hockenson was placed on injured reserve and will miss the rest of the season. Jordan Addison was expected to be out early in the week, but he managed to log some limited practices and is now listed as questionable. Regardless, we can expect a ton of volume for Justin Jefferson. A matchup against the Packers was already elite, and now Green Bay will be without Jaire Alexander. While there’s a new quarterback under center, Jefferson has caught 13-of-20 targets for 225 yards and a touchdown over the last 2 games. He deserves consideration at MVP and CPT.
As for Addison, he makes a strong tournament play if he’s able to suit up. If he’s out, we can expect a lot of K.J. Osborn and Brandon Powell. They are affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings, which means they would be two of the top point-per-dollar options if Addison does sit. We’ll likely see Johnny Mundt and Josh Oliver split the tight end duties with Hockenson out. We have the two projected for a similar number of fantasy points, and Mundt is considerably cheaper than Oliver on DraftKings. He’s likely the better point-per-dollar option, but he’ll likely draw more ownership as well. In terms of the matchup, the Packers are close to the league average in fantasy points allowed to both wide receivers and tight ends.
Ty Chandler couldn’t get much of anything going against the Lions last week, but we shouldn’t be overly worried. The Lions have had one of the best run defenses in the NFL this season. The encouraging part is that Alexander Mattison played on only 8% of the snaps. Perhaps that number goes up a bit this week since he was taken off the injury report, but it looks like the Vikings are rolling with Chandler as their feature back for the rest of the season. The matchup is very enticing, as the Packers are 21st or worse in DVOA against the run, rush EPA, and fantasy points allowed to running backs.
The Vikings defense is easily the best unit of the four (both offenses and defenses) in this game. They are 5th in total defensive DVOA this season and top 10 against both the run and the pass. If they can stop the run, I like their chances in a home game against the Packers. Kicker Greg Joseph is viable in all formats.
Green Bay Packers Preview
It’s been an up-and-down season for Jordan Love, but he has a chance to lead his team to the playoffs. When it comes to fantasy production, he’s been in much better form than you might expect. He has topped 23 fantasy points in 4 of his last 6 games. A little surprising, right? While he doesn’t scramble a ton, he does have that in his repertoire and has rushed for 3 touchdowns this season. The issue this week is his matchup — the Vikings blitz more than any team in the NFL and are 7th in DVOA against the pass. I have more interest in Love at MVP and CPT than Hall, but still prefer him as a FLEX play.
Jayden Reed will be back this week, but that doesn’t mean the Packers will be at full strength in the passing game. Christian Watson and Luke Musgrave are both listed as questionable, while Dontayvion Wicks is shaping up to be a game-time decision. While the Vikings have a good defense, the one position that they have struggled to defend is wide receiver. They have allowed the 9th-most fantasy points receivers this season. Reed and Romeo Doubs are both strong options here, especially if Wicks is unable to suit up. If Wicks does miss, Bo Melton and Malik Heath will split WR3 duties. Tucker Kraft has come on strong in recent weeks and could be a sneaky option in all formats. The Vikings are close to the league average in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
AJ Dillon was able to play last week, but he is still dealing with a broken thumb. The Packers have expressed concerns over ball security, and we saw him split backup duties with Patrick Taylor against the Panthers. We can expect another heavy workload for Aaron Jones, who is coming off a great game last week. He turned 24 touches into 135 yards from scrimmage. This isn’t the best matchup, but Jones is one of the better pass-catching backs in the league and has a path to 20 touches. He’s a strong option at FLEX and a sneaky contrarian option at MVP and CPT. I’ll take my chances with a fade of Taylor and Dillon.
The Packers’ defense has been nothing short of awful recently. They made Bryce Young look like a good NFL quarterback last week. While I don’t love their form or their talent, they are facing a rookie quarterback. Perhaps they can generate a couple of turnovers. Kicker Anders Carlson is viable in all formats.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
This is one of the toughest showdown slates in recent memory, largely because I have no idea what to expect from Jaren Hall. If he ends up playing well, the Vikings should be able to put up points against this porous Packers defense. I have a hard time seeing one team run away with this game, which limits the appeal of onslaught builds. I plan to roll with a lot of balanced builds, and I have interest in both kickers. We don’t have to worry about the weather, and I could see both offenses stalling out in the red zone.
Vikings-Packers DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | WR | 22.21 | $12,000 | $18,000 | 1.85 | $15,000 | 1.48 |
| Jordan Love | GB | QB | 17.52 | $11,000 | $16,500 | 1.59 | $16,000 | 1.10 |
| Jaren Hall | MIN | QB | 17.02 | $8,400 | $12,600 | 2.03 | $13,500 | 1.26 |
| Aaron Jones | GB | RB | 15.00 | $9,800 | $14,700 | 1.53 | $14,500 | 1.03 |
| Jayden Reed | GB | WR | 13.00 | $7,400 | $11,100 | 1.76 | $12,500 | 1.04 |
| Ty Chandler | MIN | RB | 12.06 | $8,200 | $12,300 | 1.47 | $10,500 | 1.15 |
| K.J. Osborn | MIN | WR | 11.17 | $6,400 | $9,600 | 1.75 | $9,000 | 1.24 |
| Romeo Doubs | GB | WR | 11.11 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 1.23 | $11,500 | 0.97 |
| Tucker Kraft | GB | TE | 10.00 | $5,800 | $8,700 | 1.72 | $7,500 | 1.33 |
| Brandon Powell | MIN | WR | 9.20 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 2.88 | $6,500 | 1.42 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | GB | WR | 9.15 | $5,600 | $8,400 | 1.63 | $8,000 | 1.14 |
| Greg Joseph | MIN | K | 7.42 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.48 | $8,000 | 0.93 |
| Anders Carlson | GB | K | 7.09 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.48 | $8,500 | 0.83 |
| Packers | GB | DST | 7.05 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.96 | $9,000 | 0.78 |
| AJ Dillon | GB | RB | 6.12 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.13 | $10,000 | 0.61 |
| Johnny Mundt | MIN | TE | 5.71 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 2.04 | $7,000 | 0.82 |
| Josh Oliver | MIN | TE | 5.48 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.05 | $7,500 | 0.73 |
| Vikings | MIN | DST | 5.42 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.36 | $8,500 | 0.64 |
| Alexander Mattison | MIN | RB | 4.75 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.08 | $9,500 | 0.50 |
| Malik Heath | GB | WR | 3.21 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 0.94 | $6,500 | 0.49 |
| Patrick Taylor | GB | RB | 2.11 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 1.76 | $6,000 | 0.35 |
| Joshua Dobbs | MIN | QB | 1.97 | $6,000 | $9,000 | 0.33 | $5,000 | 0.39 |
| Nick Mullens | MIN | QB | 1.84 | $10,400 | $15,600 | 0.18 | $5,000 | 0.37 |
| Jalen Nailor | MIN | WR | 1.05 | $200 | $300 | 5.25 | $5,500 | 0.19 |
| C.J. Ham | MIN | RB | 0.99 | $400 | $600 | 2.48 | $5,500 | 0.18 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Tucker Kraft: $5,800 DK / $7,500 FD
Tight ends tend to go under-owned on showdown slates because their salaries are significantly more expensive than they are on full slates. Barring a surprise, the Packers will once again be without Christian Watson and Luke Musgrave. Kraft has seen at least 6 targets in 3 of the last 4 games and has been a nice safety valve for Jordan Love. We have also seen the Packers call a few screens for Kraft, which is a positive sign. He’s scored double-digit fantasy points in 3 straight games.
Vikings vs. Packers Player Pick’em
Season record: 34-18
31-10 over the last 41 games
Tyson Chandler anytime touchdown (1.80x) – Sleeper
I don’t know about you, but I am still mad at Dan Campbell. The Lions drove the entire length of the field and scored a touchdown to pull within a point of the Cowboys with 23 seconds left. He decided to go for two instead of kicking the extra point. Understandable. The Lions got the conversion but there was a penalty on the play. That pushed them back 5 yards. Surely they will kick the extra point and go to overtime now, right? Nope, they go for two from the 7-yard line and don’t get it. But wait, another penalty. Okay Campbell, you have learned your lesson and should kick the extra point. Nope, they go for two a third time and don’t get it. Overtime would have likely resulted in a win for the prop, as we only needed one more reception from Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Sorry for the tangent, but I’m clearly not over the terrible decision. Anyway, the picks are still on a tear. We will look to bounce back with Ty Chandler to score a touchdown. As noted above, he dominated the snaps and running back touches last week against the Lions. Even if Mattison is more involved, I still like Chandler to see 15+ touches in an elite matchup at home. I don’t make touchdown picks often, but I like Chandler to score in this one.
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