The NFL Grind Down: Super Bowl 58 Preview - Chiefs vs. 49ers
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In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Chiefs vs. 49ers, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this year’s Super Bowl matchup.
NFL DFS DraftKings Showdown Picks and Sleepers for Super Bowl 58 — Chiefs vs. 49ers
We have officially made it to the Super Bowl. It’s bittersweet, as this should be an excellent matchup, yet we don’t get another NFL game for 7 more months. I’m not sure we could have had a bad matchup given the teams that made it to the Conference Championships, but this might have been the best outcome from an entertainment standpoint. The game is essentially set as a pick ‘em. It’s a rematch of the 2020 Super Bowl, and all of the Swifties will be out in full force. I can’t wait for Sunday, and honestly, I feel better about DFS than I do about picking a side or the total for this game. Let’s dive right into the breakdown.
Key Injuries
Skyy Moore – Questionable
Jerick McKinnon – Doubtful
Kansas City Chiefs Preview
Many said that the Chiefs were extremely fortunate in the first two rounds of the playoffs. They faced the two teams with more injuries defensively than any others in the playoffs. They made quick work of the Dolphins at home and then beat the Bills on the road in a game that wouldn’t have been very close if not for a fumble through the end zone that led to a touchback for Buffalo. The critics of the Chiefs were silenced in the AFC Championship game, as Kansas City knocked off the top-seeded Ravens in Baltimore. It was an impressive win, and it punched their third ticket to the Super Bowl in the last 5 years.
Never count Patrick Mahomes out in the playoffs. I learned that the hard way after betting on the Bills and Ravens the last two rounds. While he’s still an incredible quarterback, this isn’t the same offense as the one that led them to two Super Bowl wins. This isn’t me being critical. This is me throwing out facts — Mahomes hasn’t scored more than 21 fantasy points since Week 7 and has been held under 20 fantasy points in each of his last 5 games. This is with him having the most rushing yards of any season in his career. He doesn’t have the easiest matchup, as the Niners are 4th in DVOA against the pass, 4th in pressure rate, and 11th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. I will have plenty of exposure to Mahomes on Sunday, but I prefer using him as a FLEX rather than as a CPT or MVP.
Travis Kelce pulled a fast one on us. I try not to overreact after a few bad performances, but even I thought Kelce was washed after the regular season he had. He was clearly saving his best for the playoffs. He had 7 catches for 71 yards against the Dolphins, 5 catches for 75 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Bills, and 11 catches for 116 yards and a touchdown against the Ravens. I’ll never forget watching last year’s Super Bowl with the RotoGrinders crew. Erik Beimfohr and I had bet on the Eagles. On more than one occasion, we looked at each other and said, “How does Kelce get so open every single play?” I still don’t understand how, but it happens a few times every week. The Niners aren’t a great matchup for tight ends, but Kelce has the upside needed for those CPT and MVP roster spots.
Rashee Rice looked a little banged up in the game against the Bills but was a full-go against the Ravens. He’s been quiet the last 2 games but has racked up 20 receptions in his three playoff games. The Niners did a nice job of containing opposing WR1s in their first two playoff games (Jayden Reed and Amon-Ra St. Brown), but the Chiefs move Rice all over the field and give him a lot of targets near the line of scrimmage. Believe it or not, Marquez Valdes-Scantling ran a route on 82% of dropbacks against the Ravens. That number honestly might be more surprising than the fact that he caught the game-sealing pass from Mahomes. The Chiefs might have a different game plan against the Niners, but we know you can beat them deep every once in a while. At his price point, MVS could meet salary-based expectations with a single catch given his aDOT.
It’s a real guessing game with the rest of the Chiefs’ pass catchers. Justin Watson has run a route on 53% of dropbacks in the playoffs, but that to a combined total of 3 catches for 36 yards. He’s viable at his cheap price point on DraftKings, but unfortunately, you don’t get fantasy points just for being on the field. After fumbling twice on 2 touches against the Bills, Mecole Hardman only ran a route on one dropback against the Ravens. That doesn’t bode well for his playing time on Sunday. Kadarius Toney is expected to suit up this week, and there’s a chance Skyy Moore does as well, which would only make predicting these ancillary receivers even more difficult. If the Niners sell out to stop Kelce, perhaps that will open things up for Noah Gray over the middle. He’s only $1,400 on DraftKings and has 8 targets over the last 2 games.
As we saw against the Lions, the best way to attack the Niners is on the ground. They finished the regular season ranking 15th in DVOA against the run and 26th in rush EPA, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. They were especially vulnerable to the run in the second half of the season. Aaron Jones had 108 rushing yards (6.0 yards per carry) in the divisional round and the combination of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs combined for 138 rushing yards (5.1 yards per carry) in the NFC Championship game. Jerick McKinnon is not expected back, which means Isiah Pacheco has a clear path for 20+ touches in a prime matchup. He’s also a very capable pass catcher, as he’s caught each of the last 17 passes thrown his way. He might be my favorite play at CPT and MVP from the Chiefs.
The Chiefs have one of the best defenses in the NFL. Steve Spagnuolo is going to dial up blitzes to get pressure on the Niners, and that could lead to sacks and turnovers. I don’t love paying this much for a defense, but they will certainly find their way into a few of my lineups. Kicker Harrison Butker has been solid throughout his career. He’s viable in all formats and makes a lot of sense in cash game builds.
San Francisco 49ers Preview
The Niners had more of a conventional route to the Super Bowl, as they were able to secure the first-round bye with the best record in the NFC. They only had to win 2 playoff games to punch their ticket to the big dance, and both of those games were at home. That said, they were fortunate to escape the game against the Packers with a win and somehow managed to overcome a 17-point half-time deficit against the Lions. You could argue that they are a team ripe for the picking or that they are a team that has yet to play their best football in the playoffs.
For 5 of the 8 quarters he has played in this year’s playoffs, Brock Purdy has looked mediocre at best. However, he led the Niners to a fourth-quarter comeback over the Packers and then led them to a second-half comeback over the Lions. I was mostly impressed with his scrambling in the NFC Championship game, as he ran for several key first downs. He’s been held under 20 fantasy points in each of his last 4 games but has shown more upside than Mahomes this season. He certainly has the more explosive weapons of the two signal callers. As for the matchup, the Chiefs are 5th in DVOA against the pass, 2nd in sacks per game, and 4th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. The matchup is far from ideal, but I expect Mike Shanahan to draw up plays to get the ball out of his hands quickly. Much like Mahomes, I prefer him as a FLEX rather than a CPT or MVP.
The Chiefs have been the best defense in the NFL at limiting production to opposing WR1s. They only gave up three 100+ yard receiving performances all season, and they weren’t to No. 1 wideouts. In the playoffs, they have held Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs in check. Brandon Aiyuk is going to see a lot of L’Jarius Sneed, which is a very difficult matchup. It doesn’t mean he can’t have a big game, but I view Aiyuk as having the toughest path to success of these wideouts. Deebo Samuel missed most of the game against the Packers but was able to suit up against the Lions. He caught 8-of-9 targets for 89 yards. He’s not your traditional receiver, as he gets a lot of targets near the line of scrimmage. The Niners want to get him the ball in open space, and I expect them to do just that this week against the Chiefs. Samuel is my flag plant of the slate.
Unlike the Chiefs, the Niners really only use three wide receivers. Jauan Jennings played well against the Packers, but that was largely due to an increased role with Samuel injured. Against the Lions, he ran a route on 42% of dropbacks and only caught 1 pass for 8 yards. He could always score a touchdown, but he’s significantly more expensive than the cheap wideouts on the Chiefs. I much prefer the kickers at a similar price point to Jennings. The Chiefs are tough on all positions but are the least tough against tight ends (10th in fantasy points allowed in the regular season). George Kittle is very volatile but offers plenty of upside. He has scored at least 22 fantasy points in 5 games already this season. The Niners like to use Kyle Juszczyk in the passing game and at the goal line every now and then, so I don’t mind including him in MME sets.
Christian McCaffrey is my favorite bet to score a touchdown (-210 on DraftKings) and my favorite play at both MVP and CPT. Much like the Niners, the best way to attack the Chiefs is on the ground. During the regular season, Kansas City was 26th in DVOA against the run and 27th in rush EPA. They didn’t give up a ton of fantasy production to running backs, but that’s largely because they didn’t give up a lot of touchdowns to opposing offenses. Regardless of the game script, C-Mac is going to be heavily involved in the offense. He’s had at least 23 opportunities (rushing attempts + targets) in 4 of his last 5 games and has topped 28 fantasy points (DK scoring) four times during that stretch.
Dare I say, the Niners’ defense has not looked very sharp over the last couple of months. They still possess the ability to put pressure on the quarterback, but the Chiefs gave up the 2nd fewest sacks this season. They could always score a touchdown, but I am not prioritizing them in my builds. Kicker Jake Moody has already missed 2 field goals in the playoffs but deserves consideration given the alternatives at his price point and the fact that the game is indoors.
Chiefs-Niners DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | RB | 27.55 | $12,000 | $18,000 | 2.30 | $17,500 | 1.57 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | QB | 20.82 | $10,600 | $15,900 | 1.96 | $15,000 | 1.39 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | TE | 19.03 | $10,200 | $15,300 | 1.87 | $13,000 | 1.46 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | QB | 18.74 | $10,000 | $15,000 | 1.87 | $14,500 | 1.29 |
| Rashee Rice | KC | WR | 17.40 | $7,600 | $11,400 | 2.29 | $11,000 | 1.58 |
| Isiah Pacheco | KC | RB | 17.07 | $8,000 | $12,000 | 2.13 | $12,500 | 1.37 |
| Deebo Samuel | SF | WR | 14.19 | $9,200 | $13,800 | 1.54 | $11,500 | 1.23 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | SF | WR | 13.22 | $8,800 | $13,200 | 1.50 | $10,500 | 1.26 |
| George Kittle | SF | TE | 11.87 | $6,400 | $9,600 | 1.85 | $10,000 | 1.19 |
| Harrison Butker | KC | K | 7.46 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.49 | $9,500 | 0.79 |
| Jake Moody | SF | K | 7.38 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.42 | $9,000 | 0.82 |
| 49ers | SF | DST | 5.32 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.21 | $8,500 | 0.63 |
| Chiefs | KC | DST | 5.01 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 1.47 | $9,000 | 0.56 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | KC | WR | 4.86 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 1.62 | $7,500 | 0.65 |
| Justin Watson | KC | WR | 4.79 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 2.00 | $6,500 | 0.74 |
| Noah Gray | KC | TE | 4.38 | $1,800 | $2,700 | 2.43 | $5,500 | 0.80 |
| Jauan Jennings | SF | WR | 3.95 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 0.99 | $7,000 | 0.56 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | KC | RB | 3.50 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 2.92 | $6,500 | 0.54 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | SF | RB | 2.31 | $800 | $1,200 | 2.89 | $5,500 | 0.42 |
| Richie James | KC | WR | 1.41 | $400 | $600 | 3.53 | $5,500 | 0.26 |
| Mecole Hardman | KC | WR | 1.32 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 0.83 | $5,500 | 0.24 |
| Elijah Mitchell | SF | RB | 1.21 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 0.43 | $7,000 | 0.17 |
| Kadarius Toney | KC | WR | 0.86 | $1,400 | $2,100 | 0.61 | $6,000 | 0.14 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | SF | WR | 0.73 | $200 | $300 | 3.65 | $5,500 | 0.13 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Isiah Pacheco at CPT and MVP
When it comes to the multiplier spots, most DFS players like to jam in the players with the highest median projections. Christian McCaffrey, Patrick Mahomes, and Travis Kelce are all projecting for high ownership at CPT and MVP. Meanwhile, Isiah Pacheco is flying under the radar. In the breakdown above, I mentioned the matchup, the lack of competition for touches, and his ability to find the end zone as reasons to look his way in the Super Bowl. He’s scored a touchdown in every game of the playoffs, and I like his chances of doing it again on Sunday.
Chiefs vs. Niners Player Pick’em
- Deebo Samuel more than 58.5 receiving yards (1.74x) – Sleeper
As noted above, the Chiefs are the best team in the league at stopping opposing WR1s. They have a great scheme defensively and a great cornerback in L’Jarius Sneed. This could funnel targets away from Brandon Aiyuk. Regardless, I expect Deebo Samuel to be heavily involved in the game plan. He has reached this mark in 5 of his last 7 full games.
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