NFL DFS High Total Games Report: Week 11
Vegas implied team totals are a solid foundational baseline for NFL DFS scoring opportunity each week. We can often make highly educated assessments on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo when we properly understand where the betting market sets the line for each game.
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In this article, we’ll open the GridironIQ betting tab and overview some key spots with high betting totals for the week. We’ll look for teams that can provide us high expectations for fantasy point production for the upcoming week. Our projections and projected ownership will be partially influenced by these data points, and we’ll want to be sure we know where the bookmakers stand for each and every game this week.
Today’s NFL DFS High Total Games Report
Indianapolis Colts
Opponent: Green Bay Packers
Game Total: 51
Team Total: 26.75
Point Spread: -2.5
The Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts game headlines Week 11 as the highest totaled game of the main slate at 51 points. Simply being just one of just two games with a total of 50-points or higher is likely going to draw attention to players from this game and drive up ownership. Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams will be heavily owned for the Packers while the Colts’ side of the ball is a bit more difficult to project. A three-headed monster in the backfield for Indianapolis makes their running backs unlikely to catch much ownership but Michael Pittman career-best 7-catch 101-receiving yard performance in Week 10 combined with his cheap price tag will likely make him the highest owned Indianapolis player.
Despite the high total, this game does have some pace of play concerns. The Packers play at the fifth-slowest situation neutral pace in the league while the Colts also play at a below-average pace (19th). It also hurts that the best way to attack Green Bay’s defense this season has been on the ground. It is well in the range of outcomes (potentially probable) that the Colts will be content just pounding the rock and letting the clock run. In general, I find myself having limited exposure to this game but may be drawn into playing one of the cheap Colts TE’s if Jack Doyle is unable to clear the concussion protocol.
New Orleans Saints
Opponent: Atlanta Falcons
Game Total: 50
Team Total: 27.5
Point Spread: -5
Currently sitting with a 50-point total, I fully expect Atlanta at New Orleans to be the highest-owned game stack of the week. The Atlanta Falcons have been one of the most giving fantasy defenses this season are an ideal landing spot for Jameis Winston who is the likeliest candidate to start under center for the Saints. Even with Drew Brees sidelined, this Saints offense is likely to remain heavily concentrated with Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas doing the heavy lifting, which makes both guys easy stack candidates with Jameis. It’s also worth noting that Taysom Hill is likely to be one of the highest owned players on FanDuel thanks to having TE eligibility and being priced at just $4,500.
Atlanta’s side of the ball will likely be a bit lower-owned but are also a strong team to target with a 22.5-point team total. While the Saints have been excellent against opposing rushing attacks this season, they are very susceptible through the air, which is where this Falcons offense excels. Matt Ryan is an extremely strong tournament target and his top pairing candidates are Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley (if active), and Hayden Hurst.
New England Patriots
Opponent: Houston Texans
Game Total: 49
Team Total: 25.75
Point Spread: -2.5
After GB/IND and ATL/NO we have a handful of games with totals in the 47-49 point range, including this NE/HOU game. I wanted to highlight this game as I have more concerns about this game potentially shooting out than most of the other games with similar totals. We know by now that New England’s preferred offensive approach is running the ball over and over, limiting Cam Newton influence on the game as a passer. The biggest problem here is that even though the Texans will know what’s coming, it’s unlikely they’ll be able to stop it. Houston has been downright terrible against opposing rushing attacks this season, ranking dead last in rush defense DVOA and allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to the RB position. While there are still some cheap pieces of this game that I’ll have exposure to (Jakobi Meyers on DraftKings / Damien Harris on FanDuel), I do have some big-time concerns about the potential lack of play volume due to New England’s likely success rushing the ball and draining the clock.
Image Credit: Imagn
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