NFL DFS Pass Game Matchups Report: Week 11
Recent research into predicting fantasy production shows that defense matters in NFL DFS less than we once thought. However, there is still value on the extremes and we can still benefit from understanding the passing game matchups. When we find weakness, we can still attack on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. Using GridironIQ, we can identify teams that present upside in terms of fantasy point production.
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In combination with projections and projected ownership, we can still gain insight using passing game matchups to help us make decisions for our daily fantasy football contests. Let’s examine some top matchups for this upcoming slate of games.
Week 11 NFL DFS Pass Game Matchups Report
Michael Thomas
Opponent: Atlanta Falcons
Pass DVOA (Rank): 28th
Expected Points Added (Rank): 4th
Pass Yards Allowed (Rank): 2nd
Fpts Allowed to WR (Rank): 3rd
Oh boy…
Michael Thomas has DraftKings scores of 4.7, 10.1, and 4.7 so far this season. The quarterback that he has developed an insane level of chemistry with over the past five seasons, Drew Brees, is on the shelf with a variety of injuries. So now Thomas will be seeing passes from one Jameis Winston (and presumably some Taysom Hill as well).
I think it is safe to say we are about to find out just how much matchups matter!
Teams throw a ton against this Falcons defense…and for good reason obviously. The 66.84% pass percentage they face is the second highest in the league. And in addition to the numbers laid out above, this defense has allowed the most yards per play (6.38) in the league.
Where they really get burned against wide receivers is via that yardage. They have allowed the second most total yards to opposing wide receivers (1,936) despite playing one fewer game than a handful of teams. That is a large part of the reason why they have given up the third most fantasy points to the position. There are 11 defenses in the league that have allowed more touchdowns than them (10). If they get worse in that department going forward, they are going to start approaching Seattle Seahawks territory when it comes to “best matchups for wide receivers”.
To say I am intrigued at how all of this plays out on Sunday would be an understatement. Yes, the matchup is elite, but there is sooo much uncertainty here with Brees being out now and Thomas’s weird season. If nothing else though, it is going to be must-see TV!
Keenan Allen
Opponent: New York Jets
Pass DVOA (Rank): 32nd
Expected Points Added (Rank): 1st
Pass Yards Allowed (Rank): 5th
Fpts Allowed to WR (Rank): 9th
A target-hog going up against one of the worst pass defenses in the league means it is time to get yourself some Keenan Allen shares in Week 11.
Not only does this defense give up the highest EPA (Expected Points Added) in the passing game, but GridironIQ also tells us that they allow the highest Pass Success Rate too (53.19%). Oh, and did I mention that they rank dead last in Pass Defense DVOA too? Honestly, I’m shocked that they have ‘only’ given up the ninth most fantasy points to this position. One would think it’d be even higher based on these other stats.
As for Allen, he has seen double-digit targets in six of the eight games he has played this season (I’m not counting Week 5 when he left early with back spasms). And normally a guy we don’t think of with a ton of touchdown equity due to his low aDOT, he has found the end zone in each of the last three games.
Will an extremely favorable matchup make it four in a row? I don’t know what the odds are, but he certainly seems likely to. And if he doesn’t, the absurd volume he gets could still lead to a rather big fantasy day. We are talking about a guy here who saw 20 targets in one game earlier this season (Week 3).
Jakobi Meyers
Opponent: Houston Texans
Pass DVOA (Rank): 22nd
Expected Points Added (Rank): 6th
Pass Yards Allowed (Rank): 15th
Fpts Allowed to WR (Rank): 10th
The combination of sneaky good matchup and ridiculously high volume has me liking Meyers this week. Considering the Patriots haven’t been on a Main Slate for two straight weeks, I am curious to see if that is a popular opinion in Week 11.
Meyers has seen a massive market share of the team’s targets in these last three games without Julian Edelman; 42.7% to be exact. To put that into perspective, Davante Adams leads the league at 33.7%.
Now that can be slightly misleading since the Patriots have the lowest pass play percentage in the entire league. For example, Cam Newton only threw 17 times last week, resulting in ‘just’ seven targets for Meyers. But he still saw 11 targets in Week 8 and 14 targets in Week 9. The volume is absolutely there.
As for Houston, the reason I think it is a sneaky good matchup for wide receivers is because some of their numbers appear to be a bit skewed since teams haven’t had to throw against them much (they are 2-7 after all). When you look at GridironIQ, their defense sees the highest rate of rushing plays (46.2%) but just the 28th highest rate of passing plays (53.8%). But when you look at Expected Points Added, they are at the sixth highest in the league against the pass.
There are a lot of moving parts here, so luckily Meyers is still really cheap to help mitigate some of the risk. For instance, he is just $4,900 on DraftKings, a full-PPR site. The lowest DraftKings score Meyers has posted in these last three games is 13.8. What is his fantasy output going to look like if this volume keeps up AND he finds the end zone for a change?
Image Credit: Imagn
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