NFL DFS Pass Game Matchups Report: Week 7
Recent research into predicting fantasy production shows that defense matters in NFL DFS less than we once thought. However, there is still value on the extremes and we can still benefit from understanding the passing game matchups. When we find weakness, we can still attack on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. Using GridironIQ, we can identify teams that present upside in terms of fantasy point production. In combination with projections and projected ownership, we can still gain insight using passing game matchups to help us make decisions for our daily fantasy football contests. Let’s examine some top matchups for this upcoming slate of games.
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Week 7 NFL DFS Pass Game Matchups Report
DeAndre Hopkins
Opponent: Seattle Seahawks
Pass DVOA (Rank): 29th
Expected Points Added (Rank): 4th
Pass Yards Allowed (Rank): 2nd
Fpts Allowed to WR (Rank): 1st
It’s hard not to start any article analyzing passing game matchups with the WR1 on whichever team is facing this Seattle defense. It just so happens that this week it is the guy who is second in the entire league in market share of his team’s targets (31.7%).
The key metric that stands out above is that the Seahawks have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. As you can see in GridIronIQ, they have allowed 59.90 fantasy points per game to this position. For comparison, the team that has given up the second most to this position, according to GridIronIQ, is the Cleveland Browns. And they are all the way down at 45.30 fantasy points per game! That is just a monstrous gap.
So when you factor in the aforementioned massive market share of targets that Nuk sees for this team, it becomes pretty clear why he is going to project as one of the best wide receivers on the Week 7 slate. And who knows, maybe you get a bit of an ownership discount on him after he was a bit of a letdown on Monday Night Football.
Tyler Boyd
Opponent: Cleveland Browns
Pass DVOA (Rank): 19th
Expected Points Added (Rank): 16th
Pass Yards Allowed (Rank): 3rd
Fpts Allowed to WR (Rank): 2nd
My initial thoughts when seeing that the Browns gave up the second most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers was, “Well yeah, Dak threw for like a billion yards against them in Week 4.” But still, they’ve played five other games and haven’t exactly been stymieing any of their passing games.
And even if you think their numbers positively regress in that department (which they probably will), you can still get arguably the best wide receiver on this team at a mid tier price tag and some laughably low ownership in Week 7. For example, a very early run of Projected Ownership on DraftKings has Boyd at around 2%, and he is only $5,400 on that site!
He has seen exactly eight targets in three of his last five games, with the low end being six in that span and the high end being 13. If you catch the high end this week against Cleveland—AND he is able to find the end zone—he could absolutely destroy this price tag.
I don’t know about you, but I’d certainly love 25+ DraftKings points at 2% ownership.
Terry McLaurin
Opponent: Dallas Cowboys
Pass DVOA (Rank): 21st
Expected Points Added (Rank): 9th
Pass Yards Allowed (Rank): 8th
Fpts Allowed to WR (Rank): 4th
I could probably just point you to this tweet from our own Derek Carty and then tie a bow on the McLaurin blurb right then and there. But I need to at least pretend that I am anywhere close to as smart as Carty, so here we go.
Sure, there is plenty of systemic risk with this Washington offense as they continue to try to get acclimated to Kyle Allen being under center. But I bet we could have said the same thing prior to Week 5 when the Giants went to Dallas to face this Cowboys team. The Giants, like Washington, have one of the worst pass offenses in the league.
And what did the Giants WR1, Darius Slayton, go for in that game? Oh, only eight catches for 129 yards. This Cowboys defense gives it up to any offense, even the ones that stink like rotten eggs. And for comparison, McLaurin has an even bigger share (27.2%) of his team’s targets than Slayton does (23.3%) for his team this season.
I doubt you get much of an ownership discount on McLaurin (Carty does have 20,700 Twitter followers after all), especially on DK where it is full PPR and McLaurin is still somehow just $5,800 (he is all the way up to $7,100 on FD). Personally, I’d want to go way over the field if he is only 15% though (which is what we have him at in a very early run of Projected Ownership).
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Image Credit: Imagn