NFL DFS Pass Game Matchups Report: Week 9
Recent research into predicting fantasy production shows that defense matters in NFL DFS less than we once thought. However, there is still value on the extremes and we can still benefit from understanding the passing game matchups. When we find weakness, we can still attack on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. Using GridironIQ, we can identify teams that present upside in terms of fantasy point production.
In combination with projections and projected ownership, we can still gain insight using passing game matchups to help us make decisions for our daily fantasy football contests. Let’s examine some top matchups for this upcoming slate of games.
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Week 9 NFL DFS Pass Game Matchups Report
Stefon Diggs
Opponent: Seattle Seahawks
Pass DVOA (Rank): 30th
Expected Points Added (Rank): 6th
Pass Yards Allowed (Rank): 1st
Fpts Allowed to WR (Rank): 1st
Continuing with the theme of any article I write about passing game matchups, allow me to introduce WideReceiver1 vs. the Seahawks. We see it week in, week out; wide receivers against the Seahawks just rake in the fantasy points.
There are numerous reasons for this that are largely outside the scope of this article. There is one specifically that I’d like to point out that you see right there in GridIronIQ, and that is the Seahawks defense allows the most plays per game in the entire league. It makes sense, right? More plays = more opportunities to accumulate fantasy points.
Even in last week’s game against the 49ers, a game in which the Seahawks were up by a lot most of the game, two separate receivers were able to put up great games for their respective salaries.
Brandon Aiyuk: 8 receptions, 91 yards, 1 TD
Kendrick Bourne: 8 receptions, 81 yards
And that right there is another reason why the passing matchup against the Seattle defense is next-level appealing. The Seahawks offense is so good that the opposing offenses are usually playing from behind, forcing them to throw even more.
So the main beneficiary here in Week 9 is obviously going to be Stefon Diggs. There is no doubting the fact that he is the preferred target of Josh Allen. Diggs has a 30.2% market share of targets on the season, and that number has climbed up to 35.9% over the course of the past four games.
Allen Robinson
Opponent: Tennessee Titans
Pass DVOA (Rank): 24th
Expected Points Added (Rank): 8th
Pass Yards Allowed (Rank): 7th
Fpts Allowed to WR (Rank): 2nd
I am not going to lie, I was surprised when I saw exactly how bad the Titans have been against opposing wide receivers this season. I mean, just look at some of the stat lines they have allowed lately…and to multiple receivers in the same game too!
WEEK 8 vs. Cincinnati
Tee Higgins: 6 receptions, 78 yards
Tyler Boyd: 6 receptions, 67 yards
Auden Tate: 7 receptions, 65 yards, 1 TD
WEEK 7 vs. Piitsburgh
Juju Smith-Schuster: 9 receptions, 85 yards
Diontae Johnson: 9 receptions, 80 yards, 2 TD
WEEK 6 vs. Houston
Will Fuller: 6 receptions, 123 yards, 1 TD
Brandin Cooks: 9 receptions, 68 yards, 1 TD
Good grief, what in the world is going on out there!? If there is ever a game for A-Rob to break a slate, one would think it has to be this one against the Titans. The price tag is below $7,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings too, which leaves even more room for profit potential.
At a minimum, I think A-Rob is one of the top WR tournament targets on the slate. I mean, no one really likes stacking the Bears, do they??
Marvin Jones
Opponent: Minnesota Vikings
Pass DVOA (Rank): 18th
Expected Points Added (Rank): 5th
Pass Yards Allowed (Rank): 5th
Fpts Allowed to WR (Rank): 3rd
Well, suffice it to say that I can’t wait to see how the DFS industry handles Marv and the rest of the Lions offense in Week 9. Let’s see how the last several days have gone for the Lions.
- Kenny Golladay gets hurt in the game against the Colts and doesn’t return. Unless there is a drastic change in the news, he isn’t expected to play in Week 9.
- On Wednesday, Matthew Stafford was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list for contact tracing reasons. Will he be cleared in time to play Sunday? Or will it be Chase Daniel at the helm?
In the two games that Golladay missed at the start of the season, Jones tied with Danny Amendola for the team lead with 14 total targets. After his two-touchdown game against the Colts on Sunday, Marv’s price came up $600 on FanDuel to $6,100. However, on DraftKings, it remained stagnant at $5,100.
If Stafford ultimately plays, Jones is probably on pace to be one of the chalkier wide receivers on DraftKings. And while his fantasy production wasn’t great in those two games earlier in the season without Golladay, it is worth noting that Marv’s air yards and ADOT (average depth of target) have been trending well up since the start of the season. To see the precise numbers, check out our NFL Premium Usage App.
Image Credit: Imagn
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