NFL DFS Expert Survey: Week 1

by Justin Bailey (Jbails26)

Created Sep 10, 2026

Last Updated 2026-09-11 18:45:34 Premium Content Part of the product NFL DFS

Our panel of experts is here to give you their insights on NFL DFS today for the Week 1 main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. They’re ready to answer key questions that will assist you in making those crucial lineup-building decisions. Curious about Noto’s favorite correlation? Or perhaps you’re wondering about Davis Mattek’s favorite contrarian play? Read their thoughts below!

NFL DFS DraftKings & FanDuel Expert Survey: Week 1 Picks

Rank your three favorite players for cash games, in order:

What is your favorite correlation and why?

Notorious: Tyler Shough + Chris Olave + Jahmyr Gibbs – With David Montgomery now in Houston, we finally get Gibbs in a bell-cow role for an entire season. He’s the top projected player on the slate, so he’s going to be popular. The key to rostering him is to get unique with the rest of your lineup. I like the idea of building in some correlation from the same game. Shough looked great in the second half of last season. While I wish Jordyn Tyson was healthy, his absence will only condense the target tree in New Orleans. Shough offers rushing upside (30+ rushing yards in 3 of his last 5 starts last season) and has a clear WR1 in Olave, who had a 27% target share and a 42% air yards share with Shough under center last season. The Lions secondary is banged up to start the season, so I think Olave gets off to a big start.

stevietpfl: Tyler Shough + Chris Olave + Jahmyr Gibbs – The Saints looked like a completely different offense in the last 6 weeks of the season. Shough threw for at least 255 yards in the final 4 games of the season. In his final 5 games of the season, Olave had 49.4% of the team’s air yards and led the team with a 28% target rate. He averaged 85.8 yards per game in that stretch. On top of that, he was the first read 36.5% of the time. The Saints will likely be trailing in this game, which leads me to this stack. Gibbs and Montgomery combined for 1,939 yards on the ground last season. With Montgomery gone, it’s likely we see Gibbs unleashed this season. The Saints were strong against the run last season, ranking 2nd in EPA. I think the opportunity for Gibbs is worth the price, and he’s capable of getting it done in both the running game and the passing game.

Krayton: Caleb Williams + Colston Loveland + Tetairoa McMillan – This is a game that I love getting exposure to, as I expect Bears head coach Ben Johnson to put Williams in a great position to start the season right where he left off. As for Loveland, he saw 10, 13, 15, and 10 targets across his last 4 games of the regular season and playoffs, as he was the focal point of the offense. With a year of experience behind him, I think we see Loveland finish as a top tight end. Luther Burden III is right there as another guy I love targeting, as he’s pretty cheap on both sites, and with Rome Odunze still a little banged up with a calf injury, we should see most of the targets funneled to Loveland and Burden. I want exposure to Carolina, and McMillan is the logical bring-back option. He is entering his second season and is in a great position to garner even more targets than he saw last season.

ebeimfohr: Lamar Jackson + Zay Flowers – Especially with very loose pricing in Week 1, I am making Jackson and Flowers a major priority. The Ravens overhauled their staff after another disappointing season, and they brought in new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle from Ben Johnson’s staff in Chicago. I think this change, combined with a healthy Jackson, is going to unlock a totally different version of this Ravens offense, with a modern OC focused on explosive plays. Flowers has been one of the better WRs in the NFL for a couple seasons, at least on an efficiency and target-earning basis, but we just need some better touchdown luck, similar to what happened to Terry McLaurin when Jayden Daniels got to town. The Colts were also in the bottom half of the league in defensive DVOA last season, while being worse against the pass.

ncorfield8k: Baker Mayfield + Chris Godwin + Ja’Marr Chase – This game has the potential to be a high-scoring affair. The Bengals defense started to improve last year and could actually be pretty decent overall with some impactful additions in Dexter Lawrence, Jonathan Allen, and Boye Mafe. But they’re still likely in the middle of the pack, and Mayfield can ball out in any matchup. With DJ Turner likely to shadow Emeka Egbuka, I like Godwin’s chances of seeing a lot of targets. And I like playing aging veterans early in the season when they’re freshest. Chase is a natural bring-back as one of the top spend-ups on the slate.

Davis Mattek: Caleb Williams + Luther Burden III – Rome Odunze is either not going to play or will come into Sunday with an injury designation. Burden is coming off the most efficient yards per routes run season of any rookie since Justin Jefferson. Burden will end up being an $8,000 player this season, and I will be playing him every single week regardless of matchup until his price matches his skill level.

Jordan Vanek: Justin Herbert + Ladd McConkey and/or Quentin Johnston + Michael Wilson and/or Marvin Harrison Jr. – I think the Cardinals are positioned to be one of the worst defenses in the NFL, but they should still score points on offense. I expect them to play with some pace, similar to the Saints last season, and in this opening game, new Chargers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel gets a chance to show off his new QB. I don’t mind doubling McConkey and QJ here, but on a Week 1 slate, I’m more comfortable single-stacking to get exposure to other games. Wilson and Harrison are both good bring-back options, and they should get isolated routes where they can create splash plays. I don’t love paying top dollar for Trey McBride here, so Wilson and Harrison are my preferred options.

Who’s your favorite contrarian play (below 10% pOWN%) and why?

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