NFL DFS Expert Survey: Week 10

by Andy Means (meansy53) Last Updated 2024-11-08 21:06:44 Premium Content Part of the product NFL DFS

Our panel of experts is here to give you their NFL DFS advice for this week’s main slate by answering a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions. Want to know Noto’s three favorite players for cash games? Or headChopper’s favorite correlation? Find out below!

NFL DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Expert Survey for Week 10

Rank your three favorite players for cash games, in order:

What is your favorite correlation and why?

Notorious: D’Andre Swift + Bears D/ST – Make no mistake about it, the Bears were embarrassed last week against the Cardinals. They struggled on both sides of the ball and ended up losing by 20 points. I expect a major bounce-back effort at home against the Patriots. Swift didn’t have a great game last week, but he saw another 22 touches. He’s now had at least 21 touches in 4 of the last 5 games (he had 18 in the other). The Bears have a high team total and are facing a team that is in the bottom 10 in EPA against the run, PFF’s grades against the run, and fantasy points allowed to running backs this season. He pairs nicely with their defense, who should be able to put pressure on rookie Drake Maye.

Stevietpfl: Mac Jones + Parker Washington + Justin Jefferson – As of Friday morning, it looks like Trevor Lawrence will be out. Jones is close to the minimum price across the industry and completely opens the rest of my lineup. As much as I like Evan Engram and Brian Thomas, I like Washington’s price, and he makes this a full value stack. Washington ran a route on 91.4% of the team’s dropbacks last week and had 38.7% of the team’s air yards. If Gabe Davis is back, then Engram will be my main stack option with Jones. With Jones being so cheap, it’s easy to fit in Jefferson on the other side of this game. He’s averaging 97.9 yards per game and has a 30.7% target share. He’s the top wide receiver in the NFL, and he draws one of the best matchups of the weekend. Jacksonville has allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers this season.

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Krayton: Sam Darnold + Justin Jefferson – I love this matchup for Darnold and Jefferson against the Jaguars, who are a team that has played quite a bit of man coverage. This should be an opportunity for Jefferson to absolutely explode. He has been averaging just shy of 20 fantasy points per game, and he continues to get around 8-9 targets per game, continually making the most of every target that comes his way. If you look at our ceiling projections, you will see he has the highest raw projection on the slate for all wide receivers. He and Darnold are my favorite correlation by quite a wide margin.

ebeimfohr: Caleb Williams + Rome Odunze – Look, it hasn’t been pretty for Caleb and the Bears offense, but that’s why we are getting really nice prices on this stack despite a great matchup. D’Andre Swift is picking up projected ownership again because teams have been running well on the Pats, but their defense is just flat-out bad now, allowing nearly 30 points per game over the last 4 games. Caleb brings underrated rushing upside, showed a real ceiling against the Jags, and has a very cheap price. Odunze is my favorite stacking partner, as he’s taken a nice step with Keenan Allen really struggling. Odunze leads the team in air yards and has matched DJ Moore in total targets the last 2 games.

ncorfield8k: Josh Allen + Khalil Shakir + Dalton Kincaid + Josh Downs – The Bills have an elite matchup with a Colts defense that has allowed the 7th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, the 9th most to wide receivers, and the 2nd most to tight ends. With Keon Coleman out, the target tree will be condensed. But because of pricing constraints, nobody may play this stack. This is a fun slate to lean into the chaos for large-field tournaments.

Davis Mattek: Jalen Hurts + DeVonta Smith – A.J. Brown is likely going to either miss this game or be limited in some fashion. Even if Brown does play, I still prefer the salary savings on Smith. This Dallas defense has given up explosive plays at a league worst and has an anemic pass rush. The Eagles’ offense leads the league in 20+ yard explosive play rate over the last month. Hurts should be a favorite to be the GPP-winning QB, and Smith should come in at less than 5% on both sites.

Who’s your favorite contrarian play (below 10% pOWN%) and why?

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