NFL DFS Expert Survey: Week 4 - Monday Night Football
Our panel of experts is here to give you their NFL DFS advice for this week’s main slate by answering a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions. Want to know Noto’s three favorite players for cash games? Or SquirrelPatrol’s favorite correlation? Find out below!
NFL DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Expert Survey for Week 4 (Monday Night Football)
Rank your three favorite players for cash games, in order:
| Analyst | Rank 1 | Rank 2 | Rank 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Notorious | Geno Smith | DeVon Achane | Jaxon Smith-Njigba |
| SquirrelPatrol | DeVon Achane | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Dolphins D/ST |
| Stevietpfl | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DeVon Achane | Geno Smith |
| Krayton | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DeVon Achane | David Montgomery |
| ebeimfohr | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DeVon Achane | Jaxon Smith-Njigba |
| ncorfield8k | Geno Smith | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Tony Pollard |
| Davis Mattek | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | David Montgomery | Tony Pollard |
What is your favorite correlation and why?
Notorious: Geno Smith + Jaxon Smith-Njigba – I love this duo because they correlate, and their price points are prohibitive. This stack fits all types of builds and allows you to spend up on other positions. Under new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, the Seahawks are tied with the Bengals for the highest pass rate over expectation this season. They are small underdogs and playing indoors, so this certainly sets up for a plethora of Geno dropbacks. While I like DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett as well, JSN is my favorite of the three on a per-dollar basis. He has solid usage metrics (20% target share, 28% air yards share, 21% first-read rate), and the Lions have struggled against slot receivers this season.
SquirrelPatrol: Tyler Huntley + Tyreek Hill – pOWN% is going to focus on the SEA/DET game, which should leave the Dolphins relatively overlooked. That could be a big mistake by the field. Former Pro Bowler Tyler Huntley can pick up rushing points with his legs and is a capable passer as well, picking up 146 passing yards and 3 passing TDs in his last preseason game this year. Huntley is a home favorite rushing QB at a low price and low pOWN%. Tyreek Hill is now priced down as the 3rd-most-expensive WR on FD and the 2nd-most-expensive on DK, but no player can break a slate like Hill, even if he’s playing with a new QB.
Stevietpfl: Geno Smith + Jaxon Smith-Njigba + Amon-Ra St. Brown – We have no idea what to expect out of the Miami offense with Tyler Huntley starting. I’m going to be overweight on this SEA/DET game. The Lions are allowing 236.3 passing yards per game, which is the most of any team on this 2-game slate. Smith-Njigba is coming off a game against Miami where he only had 3 catches. I expect Geno to get JSN more involved, and I think he has similar upside as DK Metcalf at a lower price point. After 4 fantasy points in Week 1, St. Brown has looked fantastic. He has 18 catches on 27 targets over the last 2 games. While I still like Jameson Williams, I think St. Brown has the highest ceiling of any player on this slate.
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Krayton: Geno Smith + Tyler Lockett and/or Jaxon Smith-Njigba – I love getting exposure to the Seattle offense, as the Lions have given up the 2nd-fewest rushing yards per game (46) this season. They have done a good job of shutting down the run game. However, the passing game should be on point for Seattle, with DK Metcalf, Smith-Njigba, and Lockett all looking like good plays. I like taking a shot on Lockett, who I think will go overlooked, with Metcalf and Smith-Njigba being the more popular pairings with Geno.
ebeimfohr: Jahmyr Gibbs + David Montgomery + Lions D/ST – I am taking a pretty unique angle on this 2-game slate, with the stance that the SEA/DET game is over-owned from a pass game perspective, especially relative to the TEN/MIA game. My take is that the Lions defense is not the same “Coors Field’ of DFS for opposing pass games anymore, especially at home. They also have the best run game in the league that they have used to control the game so far this year and keep Jared Goff from having to win games for them. If we play this game through their two RBs and their defense, we can instantly be contrarian on the slate. Then we can focus on the lesser-owned game for our stacking while attacking a Seattle run defense that was gashed by a similar Patriots game plan with Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson in Week 2.
ncorfield8k: Tyler Huntley + Tyreek Hill + Jaylen Waddle – Huntley is projected for the second-most quarterback ownership. Yet, his top receivers are both projected to be owned by less than a quarter of the field. A Dolphins onslaught will get little ownership, as most who play Huntley will be hoping for a lot of rushing. But Huntley has never played with offensive weapons like Hill and Waddle before, and he could surprise through the air.
Davis Mattek: Geno Smith + Jaxon Smith-Njigba – The Lions have proven through 3 games that no one can run on them and that they very much do not WANT you to run on them. I expect Seattle to be heavily tilted OVER in Pass Rate Over Expectation. Geno is a top-5 QB in Completion Percentage Over Expectation this season, and JSN is the most mispriced Seattle WR. I think he ends up being the slate breaker, and if Geno adds 2+ points with his legs, that will help him separate from Jared Goff.
What is your preferred tournament format (e.g. large-field, single-entry) to play this week? How do you plan to beat that field of opponents? What tactic or strategy will set you apart?
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