The NFL DFS Grind Down: Monday Night Football - Commanders vs. 49ers
For this Week 6 Monday Night Football matchup on 10/19 featuring the Commanders vs. Niners, Notorious will take a look at the top NFL DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Commanders vs. 49ers
Jump straight to the DFS Showdown salaries and projections →
This week’s main slate was absolutely wild. It was full of DFS landmines and major upsets. For Sunday Night Football, I hope some of you took my advice and used Matthew Golden at CPT and MVP.
We turn the page to tonight’s game between the Commanders and Niners. Washington is 1-3-1 to start the season, but they’ll only be one game out of 1st place in the NFC East with a win tonight. With that said, they have one of the worst point differentials (-34) in football and a difficult matchup on the road. San Francisco is a perfect 5-0 to start the season and has the best point differential (+61) in the NFL.
This looks like a mismatch on paper. The Niners are 7.5-point favorites, and the game features a total of 51.5 points.
Key Injuries (as of Monday, 11:00 AM ET)
▪️ WR Deebo Samuel (SF) — Out (hamstring)
▪️ DE Nick Bosa (SF) — Out (knee, calf)
▪️ WR Mike Evans (SF) — Questionable (ribs, Achilles)
▪️ WR Christian Kirk (SF) — Questionable (calf)
▪️ RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WAS) — Out (groin)
▪️ QB Marcus Mariota (WAS) — Out (knee)
▪️ DE Charles Omenihu (WAS) — Out (groin, ankle)
▪️ WR Stefon Diggs (WAS) — Questionable (hamstring)
▪️ RB Jeremy McNichols (WAS) — Questionable (quad)
Washington Commanders Preview
Jayden Daniels was terrific in his Week 5 return. His fantasy production mostly came on the ground, as he ran for 103 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Giants. He finished the game with 35 fantasy points, which was more than his first 2 games combined. He has a tougher draw tonight, as the Niners are 11th in EPA allowed per dropback and 4th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. The matchup is improved with Nick Bosa being out, and you know I love targeting mobile quarterbacks. The game script should lead to a lot of dropbacks for Daniels.
Commanders’ 2026 WR/TE usage:
🔹 Terry McLaurin: 83% route part., 21% target share, 32% air-yards share, 9.7 XFPPG
🔹 Stefon Diggs: 66% route part., 22% target share, 23% air-yards share, 12.4 XFPPG
🔹 Chig Okonkwo (TE): 59% route part., 10% target share, 11% air-yards share, 4.4 XFPPG
🔹 Antonio Williams: 52% route part., 13% target share, 16% air-yards share, 8.1 XFPPG
🔹 Treylon Burks: 51% route part., 8% target share, 16% air-yards share, 5.8 XFPPG
Stefon Diggs missed last week’s game and is listed as questionable for tonight’s game. He was able to log back-to-back limited practices, but we’ll have to keep an eye on his availability. He’s racked up a 22% target share and a 23% air yards share this season, so his absence would open up targets for these other pass catchers. Terry McLaurin hasn’t topped 80 yards in any game this season, but the underlying usage has been solid. He leads the team in route participation and air yards share.
Antonio Williams and Treylon Burks have both run a route on close to 50% of dropbacks this season. Williams has earned more targets, while Burks has a higher aDOT. Both would see a boost if Diggs can’t suit up. Chig Okonkwo hasn’t been as involved as expected in his first season with the Commanders. He has run a route on 52% of dropbacks and has a 10% target share. As far as the matchup, the Niners are 7th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and 4th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt has been ruled out, which means Rachaad White and Austin Ekeler will lead this backfield. They have both been better pass-catching backs over the last few seasons, so it will be interesting to see who gets more of the early-down work. I suppose it’s good news for both players that the Commanders are 7.5-point underdogs tonight.
I don’t have any interest in the Commanders defense or kicker Drew Stevens. The Commanders likely won’t be able to settle for many field goals in this matchup.
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San Francisco 49ers Preview
Brock Purdy has a +3.3% completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) and the highest EPA per dropback of any quarterback in the NFL. He’s gone from being underrated to overrated and back to underrated in his career. He’s truly playing some great football this season. He’s also run for at least 29 yards in 4 of 5 games. His solid play should continue against the Commanders, who are 25th in EPA allowed per dropback and 31st in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. He’s one of the top picks at CPT and MVP.
Niners’ 2026 WR/TE usage:
🔹 Mike Evans: 63% route part., 24% target share, 46% air-yards share, 13.5 XFPPG
🔹 George Kittle (TE): 71% route part., 20% target share, 19% air-yards share, 10.9 XFPPG
🔹 Brandin Cooks: 27% route part., 5% target share, 8% air-yards share, 3.7 XFPPG
🔹 Jacob Cowing: 31% route part., 3% target share, 4% air-yards share, 0.8 XFPPG
🔹 Luke Farrell (TE): 32% route part., 3% target share, 3% air-yards share, 1.5 XFPPG
Deebo Samuel has been ruled out, while Mike Evans is listed as questionable. Evans is dealing with injuries to his ribs and Achilles and was only able to work on the side at practice this week. We also have to keep an eye on Christian Kirk, who was activated from injured reserve. He’s also listed as questionable. If Evans is active, he’ll be the clear WR1 against a defense that is 29th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. The other receivers currently in our projections are Kirk, Brandin Cooks, Jacob Cowing, and Jordan Watkins. If Evans is out, we are going to have more value than we’ll know what to do with.
George Kittle is going to have a major role tonight with Samuel out. Even if Evans is active, Kittle could lead the team in targets. He already owns a 20% target share and a 19% air yards share. This is an elite matchup, as the Commanders are 31st in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to tight ends. He’s one of my favorite targets at CPT and MVP.
Christian McCaffrey has yet to have a bad fantasy outing, but his production has taken a hit this season. He has yet to score more than 22 fantasy points in any game, and he has only averaged 18 fantasy points per game. I’m not saying he’s a bad play by any means, but the matchup sets up better for the passing game. The Commanders are 7th in EPA against the run and 3rd in fantasy points allowed to running backs. CMC’s goal-line role and target share make him one of the top plays on the slate, but I see paths to him not being the optimal CPT and MVP.
The Niners defense is viable here, even without Nick Bosa. They are large favorites at home and should be able to generate some pressure tonight. Kicker Eddy Pineiro is a decent value play, although we might have a ton of strong value plays tonight if Evans is out.
DraftKings Ownership Angle & CPT Picks
As expected, Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey are projected for the highest CPT ownership. While both are tremendous options, Jayden Daniels and George Kittle both provide slate-breaking upside at lower projected ownership.
FanDuel Ownership Angle & MVP Picks
Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, and Jayden Daniels have a combined 70% pOWN% at MVP. They are the easy clicks at the multiplier spot, but I love the idea of using George Kittle at low ownership.
Prop Pick – Commanders vs. Niners
Season Record: 7-6
✅ George Kittle o63.5 receiving yards
For a full stat preview of every game in Week 6, head to the NFL First Look.
Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data