The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Morning Football - Eagles vs. Jaguars
For this Week 5 Sunday Morning Football matchup on 10/11 featuring the Eagles vs. Jaguars, Notorious will take a look at the top NFL DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Eagles vs. Jaguars
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We have another Sunday morning game in London in Week 5. This one features the Eagles and Jaguars, who are both playoff hopefuls. The Eagles were supposed to have a new-look offense this season, but they have only mustered up 75 points in the first 4 games. Scoring could be an issue again, as they are shorthanded on offense. The Jaguars look like one of the most dominant teams in football, posting a 3-1 record with a point differential of +51 (2nd best in the NFL). London has been a second home to the Jaguars over the last few seasons, so they should feel more comfortable playing overseas than the Eagles.
This game features a 7.5-point spread and a 41.5-point total.
Key Injuries (as of Saturday, 6:30 PM ET)
▪️ RB Saquon Barkley (PHI) — Out (hamstring)
▪️ RB Tank Bigsby (PHI) — Out (abdomen)
▪️ WR DeVonta Smith (PHI) — Out (hamstring)
▪️ WR Marquise Brown (PHI) — Out (ankle)
▪️ C Drew Kendall (PHI) — Out (knee)
▪️ S Marcus Epps (PHI) — Out (groin)
▪️ EDGE Jonathan Greenard (PHI) — Questionable (ankle)
▪️ CB Jaylon Jones (JAX) — Out (hamstring)
▪️ S Eric Murray (JAX) — Doubtful (concussion)
Philadelphia Eagles Preview
We were told the Eagles would have a more explosive offense this season. We were also told Jalen Hurts would have more rushing upside. Through the first 4 games, neither of those has happened. To make matters worse, the tush push isn’t even working in Philadelphia. Hurts has a tough draw against the Jaguars (6th in EPA allowed per dropback) and will be without Saquon Barkley, Tank Bigsby, DeVonta Smith, and Marquise Brown. It’s not a good spot by any means, but this is a Showdown slate with a low game total. Hurts is one of the best raw plays of the slate and deserves consideration at MVP/CPT.
Eagles’ 2026 WR/TE usage:
🔹 Dontayvion Wicks: 79% route part., 17% target share, 29% air yards share, 10.5 XFPPG
🔹 Dallas Goedert (TE): 43% route part., 11% target share, 11% air yards share, 7.9 XFPPG
🔹 Darius Cooper: 32% route part., 9% target share, 15% air yards share, 5.9 XFPPG
🔹 Makai Lemon: 80% route part., 12% target share, 10% air yards share, 4.8 XFPPG
🔹 Zach Ertz (TE): 35% route part., 11% target share, 9% air yards share, 2.8 XFPPG
With Smith and Brown both out, the Eagles will have to lean on Dontayvion Wicks, Darius Cooper, and Makai Lemon as their top receivers. Wicks has led the trio in target share (17%) and air yards share (29%) this season, while Lemon has led the trio in route participation (80%). Cooper might be the most mispriced of the trio and has flashed some upside in his limited snaps. He could see the biggest leap in terms of snap count.
Dallas Goedert will be back after missing the last 2 games with a knee injury. I haven’t seen any reports on him being limited, so he should be one of the top pass catchers for Hurts with Smith and Brown both out. Zach Ertz, Elijah Moore, and Britain Covey could all see some snaps as well. They are cheap enough to keep in your player pool if you are building multiple lineups. As far as the matchup goes, the Jaguars have been tough on tight ends but have allowed the 6th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to wide receivers this season.
With Barkley and Bigsby both out, Will Shipley and Dameon Pierce will lead the Eagles’ backfield. Shipley is a good pass-catching back who has actually seen a significant number of snaps this season, while Pierce was just elevated from the practice squad. While I expect Shipley to get more work, Pierce is much cheaper on both DraftKings and FanDuel. It’s a tough matchup for both backs, as the Jaguars are 7th in EPA against the run and 8th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points to wide receivers.
The Eagles’ defense is much healthier than their offense, but they haven’t been able to get pressure on the quarterback, and the Jaguars’ offensive line has been great in pass protection. I’m not prioritizing Philly’s defense or kicker Jake Elliott.
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Jacksonville Jaguars Preview
Trevor Lawrence looked tremendous in Week 1 against the Browns, but he has only averaged 13 fantasy points in the last 3 games. Even though the fantasy production has slowed, the advanced metrics suggest he’s having a great season. He’s 3rd in the NFL in completion percentage over expectation and 5th in EPA per dropback. He has yet to attempt more than 30 passes in a game because the Jaguars have been playing with sizable leads. That’s a concern again here, as Jacksonville is favored by 7.5 points. Lawrence is one of the safest options on the slate.
Jaguars’ 2026 WR/TE usage:
🔹 Parker Washington: 79% route part., 24% target share, 41% air yards share, 13.1 XFPPG
🔹 Jakobi Meyers: 78% route part., 14% target share, 19% air yards share, 9.3 XFPPG
🔹 Brenton Strange (TE): 72% route part., 17% target share, 16% air yards share, 8.5 XFPPG
🔹 Brian Thomas: 57% route part., 13% target share, 20% air yards share, 7.2 XFPPG
🔹 Josh Cameron: 21% route part., 6% target share, 6% air yards share, 3.8 XFPPG
I don’t know about you, but I did not see the dud coming from Parker Washington last week. After dominating targets in this offense in the first 3 games, he only had 1 reception for 7 yards in Week 4. I still view him as the WR1 in this offense, and I like that he runs 44% of his routes from the slot. Jakobi Meyers is the clear WR2 in the offense, while Brian Thomas finally showed some signs of life with a touchdown catch last week.
Brenton Strange has quietly racked up a 17% target share and a 16% air yards share this season. His 8.5 expected fantasy points per game is the 3rd-best mark among Jacksonville’s pass catchers. Through the first 4 games of the season, the Eagles are 20th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points to wide receivers and 8th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points to tight ends.
Given the spread and the matchup, Bhayshul Tuten should be considered one of the top options on this slate. The Jaguars are sizable favorites and facing an Eagles’ defense that is 28th in EPA against the run. Tuten is far from a bell-cow running back, but he’s still the feature back for Jacksonville. He has a high success rate (57%) and a decent rush yards over expectation (11.8). He’s also seen half the team’s carries inside the 5-yard line. Chris Rodriguez should also mix in. He has a path to a decent role if the Jaguars can build a lead early.
With so many key players missing for the Eagles, the Jaguars’ defense is firmly in play on this slate. Kicker Cam Little also deserves consideration.
DraftKings Ownership Angle & CPT Picks
Trevor Lawrence is soaking up nearly 30% of the projected ownership at CPT, followed by Parker Washington at 16%. While those two certainly make the most sense on paper (and for cash games), I like the idea of targeting the Eagles’ pass catchers at CPT, especially if you are building multiple tournament lineups.
FanDuel Ownership Angle & MVP Picks
On FanDuel, Trevor Lawrence is projected for even higher ownership at MVP (37%), followed by Jalen Hurts and Parker Washington. I don’t love the Eagles’ wide receivers at the multiplier position nearly as much on FanDuel, but Dallas Goedert is only $6,900 if you use him at MVP.
Prop Pick – Eagles vs. Jaguars
Season Record: 4-3
✅ Darius Cooper o19.5 receiving yards
For a full stat preview of every game this week, head to the NFL First Look.
Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data