The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Ravens vs. Falcons
For this Week 5 Sunday Night Football matchup on 10/11 featuring the Ravens vs. Falcons, Notorious will take a look at the top NFL DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Ravens vs. Falcons
Jump straight to the DFS Showdown salaries and projections →
As always, I hope the main slate went as well as possible. If not, we still have the Sunday Night Football game to look forward to.
The Ravens are 3-1 to start the season with a point differential of +20, but they will be without Lamar Jackson tonight. The Falcons dropped their first 2 games of the season before getting Michael Penix back from injury. He has brought this offense back to life with back-to-back wins over the Packers and Saints. Both of these teams are potential division winners.
Tonight’s game features a 3.5-point spread and a 43.5-point total.
Key Injuries (as of Sunday, 11:30 AM ET)
▪️ QB Lamar Jackson (BAL) — Out (ankle)
▪️ OLB Trey Hendrickson (BAL) — Out (finger)
▪️ C Cam Jurgens (BAL) — Out (concussion)
▪️ CB Marlon Humphrey (BAL) — Questionable (hamstring/calf)
▪️ LB Yasir Abdullah (ATL) — Out (hamstring)
▪️ LT Jake Matthews (ATL) — Questionable (groin)
▪️ DE Samson Ebukam (ATL) — Questionable (hamstring)
▪️ DE Za’Darius Smith (ATL) — Out (concussion/neck)
▪️ LB Divine Deablo (ATL) — Questionable (hamstring)
Baltimore Ravens Preview
Lamar Jackson will not suit up tonight, which means Tyler Huntley will be under center for the Ravens. He’s a mobile quarterback who has been serviceable in his spot starts over the years, but he’s clearly a step down from Jackson. He doesn’t offer much upside, as he’s only topped 20 fantasy points one time over the last four seasons. The matchup is mediocre at best, as the Falcons are 11th in EPA against the pass and 14th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Ravens’ 2026 WR/TE usage:
🔹 Zay Flowers: 62% route part., 28% target share, 33% air yards share, 15.7 XFPPG
🔹 Mark Andrews (TE): 68% route part., 23% target share, 18% air yards share, 9.6 XFPPG
🔹 Rashod Bateman: 75% route part., 14% target share, 20% air yards share, 7.3 XFPPG
🔹 Devontez Walker: 47% route part., 6% target share, 21% air yards share, 4.0 XFPPG
🔹 Matt Hibner (TE): 25% route part., 5% target share, 3% air yards share, 3.7 XFPPG
Zay Flowers is dealing with a foot injury, but he’s expected to suit up tonight. He’s been the best weapon in the passing game, racking up a 28% target share and a 33% air yards share this season. He’s also been the first read on 35% of dropbacks. A.J. Terrell used to be known as an elite cornerback, but that’s not really the case now. He doesn’t have the speed to keep up with Flowers. The only question is whether Huntley can deliver the ball on time.
Rashod Bateman played well with Flowers out of the lineup, but he’s been quiet for the most part this season. Devontez Walker has only seen a 6% target share, but he has seen 21% of the team’s air yards. I’m not sure this is the time to buy in with a backup quarterback, but he’s a sneaky large-field tournament target. Mark Andrews has seen major upticks in usage with Isaiah Likely now in New York. He has run more routes and seen more targets this season. He could be a safety blanket for Huntley tonight.
With a backup quarterback under center, we have to expect the Ravens to lean on Derrick Henry and the running game, at least as long as the game is competitive. Father Time has yet to catch up with Henry, as he has rushed for 93.5 yards per game. His rushing yards over expectation has been solid (21.1), and he’s seen 85% of the team’s carries inside the 5-yard line. The one concern here is the matchup against the Falcons, who are 1st in EPA against the run this season.
The Ravens are going on the road as underdogs, so I won’t be prioritizing their defense in my builds. Kicker Tyler Loop is viable if you expect a close game.
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Atlanta Falcons Preview
Michael Penix hasn’t put up gaudy numbers in his first 2 starts of the season, but the Falcons were playing with sizable leads in both games. If the Ravens can put up more of a fight tonight, we could see Penix air it out a bit more. While he’s firmly in play at UTIL/FLEX, he doesn’t offer rushing upside. If he has a good fantasy outing, one of his pass catchers will likely outscore him. The Ravens are 8th in EPA allowed per dropback, but there’s a chance Marlon Humphrey doesn’t suit up tonight.
Falcons’ 2026 WR/TE usage:
🔹 Drake London: 78% route part., 24% target share, 40% air yards share, 12.2 XFPPG
🔹 Jahan Dotson: 64% route part., 13% target share, 40% air yards share, 5.3 XFPPG
🔹 Austin Hooper (TE): 26% route part., 7% target share, 4% air yards share, 3.3 XFPPG
🔹 Kyle Pitts (TE): 55% route part., 9% target share, 14% air yards share, 3.2 XFPPG
🔹 Olamide Zaccheaus: 40% route part., 7% target share, 3% air yards share, 2.3 XFPPG
Drake London has averaged 7.8 fantasy points without Penix under center the last two seasons and has averaged 21.7 fantasy points with Penix under center. He’s clearly the biggest beneficiary of Penix being back from injury. Jahan Dotson doesn’t have a large target share, but he’s clearly the best deep threat for the Falcons. He has seen 40% of the team’s air yards and could see a deep target or two tonight. Olamide Zaccheaus will also mix in, but he has only run a route on 40% of dropbacks.
Kyle Pitts has seen a major decline in fantasy production with Penix under center over the last two seasons. To make matters worse, he has only run a route on 55% of dropbacks this season. I will continue fading him in both cash games and tournaments. Austin Hooper will mix in as well, although he has only seen a 7% target share this season. The matchup favors the receivers, as the Ravens have allowed the 11th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to wide receivers this season.
Bijan Robinson has been a fantasy beast this season, topping 30 fantasy points in 3 of the first 4 games. The offense essentially runs through him, and he’s the best bet of anyone in this game to top 20 fantasy points. He’s the easy click at MVP and CPT even though he will be popular. If you think the Falcons run away with this game, Brian Robinson Jr. could also be viable, as he scored 25 fantasy points in their blowout win over the Saints last week. It’s a good matchup, as the Saints are 24th in EPA against the run.
The Falcons’ defense is somewhat interesting tonight, as they square off against a backup quarterback at home. Kicker Nick Folk is a safe value for both cash games and tournaments.
DraftKings Ownership Angle & CPT Picks
As expected, the Falcons are dominating the projected ownership at CPT with Bijan Robinson at 30% and Drake London at 19%. It’s hard to get away from those two in cash games and small-field tournaments. If you are looking for a lower-owned option, Derrick Henry makes sense in large-field tournaments. He’s the main path for the Ravens competing in this game.
FanDuel Ownership Angle & MVP Picks
It’s a similar story at MVP on FanDuel, as Bijan Robinson is projected for the most ownership, followed by Drake London and Michael Penix.
Prop Pick – Ravens vs. Falcons
Season Record: 5-3
✅ Mark Andrews o30.5 receiving yards
For a full stat preview of every game this week, head to the NFL First Look.
Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data