The NFL DFS Grind Down: Friday Night Football - Chiefs vs. Chargers
For this Week 1 Friday Night Football matchup on 9/5 featuring the Chiefs vs. Chargers, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Chiefs vs. Chargers
While Travis Kelce getting engaged to Taylor Swift is big news, the fact that we have football back is much better news. And a rare Friday night game? Sign me up. I’m a firm believer that the more NFL games we have during the week, the better. While having a lot of primetime games lowers the number of games on the main slates, how can you not be excited for a Chiefs and Chargers game in Brazil?
This is one of the most intriguing games on the Week 1 schedule, as we have division rivals who both have their hearts set on the playoffs. The Chiefs are coming off a Super Bowl loss against the Eagles, but a fall from grace seems unlikely given their starting quarterback and head coach. The Chargers played well in their first year under Jim Harbaugh and are hoping to steal the AFC West crown from the Chiefs this season. The game features a 3.5-point spread and a 46.5-point total, so we should have a good one in store on Friday.
Key Injuries
Rashee Rice – Out
Jalen Royals – Questionable
Kansas City Chiefs Preview
Patrick Mahomes has long been considered one of the best real-life quarterbacks in the NFL, yet his ability to win football games hasn’t translated to being great in fantasy. Despite rushing for over 300 yards last season, he only topped 20 fantasy points in 4 of 16 games. He was a little better the year before, but he still only topped 20 fantasy points in 7 of 16 games in 2023. The Chiefs defense has been stout and allowed the 6th-fewest points per game last season, so there’s rarely a need for Mahomes to have a ceiling performance (until they get to the playoffs). This doesn’t mean we should fade him on a single-game DFS slate, but we can temper our expectations for the entire season.
Rashee Rice has accepted a 6-game suspension from the NFL for his involvement in a high-speed accident last year. After an incredible rookie season, it’s been tough for Rice, who missed most of the 2024 season due to a knee injury. He’s going to be a major factor for the Chiefs eventually, but he won’t suit up until Week 7. This opens the door for several players in the passing game, as Rice commanded a 28% target share over his last 13 full games. The biggest boost likely goes to Xavier Worthy, who saw a major uptick in targets and touches in the second half of last season. He’s an explosive part of both the passing game and the running game. Given his ceiling, he should be considered one of the top non-QB targets at the multiplier positions (MVP/CPT).
The wide receiver room for the Chiefs gets ugly after Worthy. Hollywood Brown is dealing with an ankle injury and hasn’t topped 100 yards since Week 3 of the 2022 season. Juju Smith-Schuster only topped 35 receiving yards 1 time in 14 regular season games last season. He hasn’t exactly been a model of consistency or upside. Fourth-round rookie Jalen Royals is not currently in our projections, as he’s dealing with a knee injury and is on the wrong side of questionable. Tyquan Thornton could be an interesting flier in large-field tournaments, as he should see a deep target or two each week. He did catch a 58-yard pass from Mahomes in the final preseason game.
Following Kelce’s engagement, every important woman in my life made sure to shoot me a text. While none of them are big football fans, it was fun getting some football-adjacent texts from them. As for his fantasy appeal, Kelce turns 36 in October and has seen his target share drop significantly over the last couple of seasons. He’s also been held under 15 fantasy points in 6 of his last 7 games against the Chargers when Derwin James has been active. The absence of Rice helps, but I plan to be underweight on Kelce for this Showdown slate. Noah Gray is my preferred tight end target from the Chiefs, as he’s significantly cheaper.
Isiah Pacheco fractured his fibula last season (ouch) and wasn’t super efficient when he returned to the lineup. He lost a lot of high-value touches to Kareem Hunt, especially down near the goal line. Pacheco still has the RB1 title for Kansas City, but it’s worth noting that they brought in Elijah Mitchell and used a 7th-round draft pick on Brashard Smith. We shouldn’t put much stock into matchup metrics from last season, but the Chargers were top 10 in EPA against the run, PFF’s grades against the run, and fantasy points allowed to running backs. Pacheco will likely need to find the end zone once or twice for him to find his way into the optimal lineup.
The Chiefs should have a strong defense once again. They finished last season in the top 10 in both pressure rate and PFF’s pass rush grades. However, Harbaugh-led teams are all about running the ball and ball security, so I’m not sure this is the best environment for a ceiling performance from Kansas City’s defense. Kicker Harrison Butker is firmly in play, especially if you think this could end up being a lower-scoring affair.
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Los Angeles Chargers Preview
The Chargers went 11-6 in their first season with Harbaugh as the head coach. The team ran the ball a ton (especially early in the season) and should continue that in 2025. They beefed up their offensive line and brought in new running backs (more on that later). This is a team that could challenge the Chiefs for the AFC West title, especially if they can stay healthy. The Chargers have a win total of 9.5 games (give me the over) and are sitting at an enticing +3000 to win the Super Bowl.
Justin Herbert hasn’t had nearly as many weapons as most elite quarterbacks in the NFL. He’s also played through several injuries in his career, which makes the numbers he has posted even more impressive. I wouldn’t say his pass-catching group is in the top 10 in the league, but I think they’ve taken a step forward this season. He’s firmly in play for this Showdown slate, even though the Chiefs were a top-5 pass defense last season. In general, we want to target quarterbacks as often as possible in single-game slates.
Ladd McConkey had an incredible rookie season. His yards per route run ended up being top 5 in the NFL, and he ran the majority of his routes from the slot. He proved that he can beat both man and zone coverage. The main issue for him this season is that Harbaugh wants this to be a run-first team. The other potential issue is a return of Keenan Allen, who runs most of his routes from the slot as well. Given their respective skill sets, I expect to see Allen more in the slot and McConkey more outside.
Quentin Johnston hasn’t exactly lived up to the expectations of being drafted in the first round, but he did improve last season. He’ll likely enter the year as the clear second outside receiver. With that said, Harbaugh and his coaching staff did draft Tre Harris in the 2nd round of this year’s draft. It could take some time for him to have a consistent role in this offense. Tight end duties will be split between Will Dissly, Tyler Conklin, and Oronde Gadsden. Dissly and Conklin are decent punts for large-field tournaments, as the Chiefs gave up the 4th-most fantasy points to tight ends last season.
It’s been a revolving door at running back for the Chargers over the last few seasons. For this year, they brought in Najee Harris from the Steelers. Unfortunately, he didn’t learn from Jason Pierre-Paul’s mistake. Harris injured his eye while lighting fireworks. He is hoping to play in this game but is still “ramping up” his level of play. It’s looking more likely that he’ll suit up, but I’m perfectly happy taking my chances elsewhere. The Chargers also drafted Omarion Hampton in the first round. With that type of draft capital invested in him, I expect him to be the RB1 sooner rather than later. The Chiefs had a good run defense in 2024, but Hampton is my favorite RB from the Chargers.
The Chargers allowed the fewest points per game last season and should have a strong defense once again. However, targeting defenses against Mahomes and company hasn’t been a recipe for success in DFS. Kicker Cameron Dicker is firmly in play, especially if you think the game is going to be competitive.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
This is a tricky slate because both teams will try to establish the run, yet both teams have question marks at the running back position. Given how well these defenses played last year, I could see this turning into a low-scoring, defensive battle. My favorite play of the slate is Xavier Worthy, who should command around a 25% target share while Rashee Rice is out. He should also be involved in the running game. My favorite punts all come from the Chiefs (Tyquan Thornton, Noah Gray, and Brashard Smith).
As is the case with most Showdown slates, I want exposure to both of the quarterbacks. Unlike the Thursday night game between the Eagles and Cowboys, I want exposure to both of the kickers. Again, I think this game has the potential to be a defensive battle. However, I don’t want to target the defenses because these are two of the best offenses when it comes to taking care of the ball.
Chiefs vs. Chargers DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | QB | 20.56 | $10,000 | 2.06 | $13,200 | 1.56 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | QB | 18.10 | $9,800 | 1.85 | $12,000 | 1.51 |
| Ladd McConkey | LAC | WR | 16.81 | $10,600 | 1.59 | $12,200 | 1.38 |
| Xavier Worthy | KC | WR | 15.04 | $9,000 | 1.67 | $11,600 | 1.30 |
| Omarion Hampton | LAC | RB | 14.21 | $8,000 | 1.78 | $6,400 | 2.22 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | TE | 13.50 | $8,600 | 1.57 | $10,600 | 1.27 |
| Isiah Pacheco | KC | RB | 12.49 | $7,600 | 1.64 | $9,000 | 1.39 |
| Hollywood Brown | KC | WR | 8.45 | $5,800 | 1.46 | $5,200 | 1.63 |
| Keenan Allen | LAC | WR | 8.41 | $6,400 | 1.31 | $8,400 | 1.00 |
| Kareem Hunt | KC | RB | 7.46 | $3,600 | 2.07 | $6,800 | 1.10 |
| Harrison Butker | KC | K | 7.19 | $4,800 | 1.50 | $7,000 | 1.03 |
| Cameron Dicker | LAC | K | 6.48 | $5,000 | 1.30 | $7,800 | 0.83 |
| Najee Harris | LAC | RB | 6.32 | $7,000 | 0.90 | $8,000 | 0.79 |
| Chiefs | KC | DST | 6.05 | $4,400 | 1.38 | $7,200 | 0.84 |
| Quentin Johnston | LAC | WR | 5.75 | $5,400 | 1.06 | $5,800 | 0.99 |
| Tyler Conklin | LAC | TE | 5.61 | $2,800 | 2.00 | $2,400 | 2.34 |
| Chargers | LAC | DST | 5.53 | $4,000 | 1.38 | $6,000 | 0.92 |
| Noah Gray | KC | TE | 5.09 | $1,600 | 3.18 | $3,400 | 1.50 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | KC | WR | 3.72 | $3,200 | 1.16 | $3,000 | 1.24 |
| Brashard Smith | KC | RB | 3.05 | $200 | 15.25 | $1,600 | 1.91 |
| Will Dissly | LAC | TE | 2.97 | $2,400 | 1.24 | $4,600 | 0.65 |
| Tyquan Thornton | KC | WR | 2.64 | $1,200 | 2.20 | $1,000 | 2.64 |
Chiefs vs. Chargers Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 1-0
Travis Kelce less than 49.5 receiving yards (1.85x) – Sleeper Fantasy
Hopefully, CeeDee Lamb got us off to a good start on Thursday night (more than 6.5 receptions). For Friday, I’m going against the newly-engaged Kelce. He’s nearly 36 years old, his target share has declined in recent years, he hasn’t been great against Derwin James in his career, and this could be a slower-paced game with both teams emphasizing the run. I generally prefer rooting for players rather than against them, but I’m taking Kelce for less than 49.5 receiving yards.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus