The NFL DFS Grind Down: Monday Night Football - Commanders vs. Chiefs
For this Week 8 Monday Night Football matchup on 10/27 featuring the Commanders vs. Chiefs, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Commanders vs. Chiefs
Happy Monday! I hope everyone’s Week 8 has gone as planned so far. We have a great game on tap on Monday night. The Commanders have lost 2 games in a row and are in danger of falling to 3-5 on the season. A win tonight would get them back to .500 and back in the NFC playoff picture. After a slow start, the Chiefs have won 2 games in a row and are 4-3 on the season. The Chiefs are listed as 11.5-point favorites, and the game features a 47.5-point total.
Key Injuries (Updated Sunday)
Jayden Daniels – Out
Matt Gay – Questionable
Washington Commanders Preview
Jayden Daniels hasn’t been able to stay healthy this season. He suffered a hamstring injury last week against the Cowboys and has been ruled out of tonight’s game against the Chiefs. Marcus Mariota will draw the spot start. While this is a brutal matchup (Chiefs are 7th in EPA allowed per dropback and 7th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks), Mariota is one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league. He’s also a mobile quarterback, which gives him a high floor for DFS.
Washington’s 2025 wideout usage:
- Terry McLaurin: 80% route participation, 18% target share, 35% air yards share
- Deebo Samuel: 80% route participation, 25% target share, 21% air yards share
- Chris Moore: 60% route participation, 10% target share, 17% air yards share
- Zach Ertz: 73% route participation, 16% target share, 15% air yards share
While losing Daniels this week is tough, Terry McLaurin will be back in the lineup. Mariota will have all of his key weapons available against the Chiefs. Unfortunately, the Chiefs are 5th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and 3rd in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. With McLaurin and Samuel both active, they could eat into each other’s target share in this difficult matchup. They are viable in tournaments, but I do prefer the expensive options from the Chiefs.
Chris Moore and Luke McCaffrey will go back to splitting work at the WR3 spot. They are priced up and fairly easy fades on this slate. Zach Ertz hasn’t had a big game with receptions or receiving yards this season, but he’s already caught 4 touchdowns. His role shouldn’t change much with McLaurin back in the lineup. On a per-dollar basis, he’s my favorite wideout from the Commanders.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt had a big game against the Chargers in Week 5, but he hasn’t been able to do much with the RB1 role over the last 2 games. I will note that over the last 3 games, he has played on 56% of the snaps, he has handled 51% of the team’s rushing attempts, and he has run a route on 34% of dropbacks. The projected game script doesn’t look great (11.5-point underdogs), but the best way to move the ball on the Chiefs is on the ground. Kansas City is 24th in EPA against the run. If you think this game gets out of hand, Jeremy McNichols is cheap and has seen 11 targets over the last 2 games.
The Commanders have a tough matchup on the road against one of the best quarterbacks of all time. I’m fine fading their defense in both cash games and tournaments. The Commanders don’t have the option to settle for field goals in this one, so I’ll avoid Washington’s kicker as well.
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Kansas City Chiefs Preview
After winning their last 2 games, Patrick Mahomes is now the favorite to win this season’s MVP. We haven’t seen him play at this high a level in the regular season for quite some time. He’s scored at least 23 fantasy points in 6 of 7 games. He’s gone from being a quarterback with a low ceiling to being one of the most productive quarterbacks in DFS. He’s firmly in play at MVP/CPT on this slate. The Commanders are 27th in PFF’s grades against the pass and 24th in EPA against the pass. The only concern is the 11.5-point spread, but I think the Commanders can keep this one competitive.
Kansas City’s 2025 wideout usage:
- Rashee Rice: 43% route participation, 26% target share, 7% air yards share
- Xavier Worthy: 55% route participation, 15% target share, 28% air yards share
- Hollywood Brown: 65% route participation, 19% target share, 24% air yards share
- Travis Kelce: 71% route participation, 16% target share, 12% air yards share
The Chiefs wasted no time getting Rashee Rice back into the mix. In his first game back, he caught 7 of 10 targets for 42 yards and 2 touchdowns. He did all that while only running a route on 43% of dropbacks and only seeing 7% of the team’s air yards. Both of those numbers should go up this week against the Commanders, who are 24th in EPA against the pass and 24th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.
Having Rice back in the lineup certainly hurts Xavier Worthy, although maybe he’ll take over the Tyquan Thornton role of getting a couple of deep targets each game. After only catching 3 passes in Rice’s first game back, I doubt many will play Worthy on this Showdown slate. He’s an excellent tournament play. Hollywood Brown and Juju Smith-Schuster could always find a way into the optimal lineup with a touchdown and are worth a look in tournaments. Travis Kelce has a mediocre matchup and should lose target share with Rice back. I’ll continue to be underweight on him in all formats.
Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt are stuck in a timeshare, but this is a rare spot where they are both viable. The Chiefs are massive favorites and playing at home. This should be one of the best game environments that we see for Kansas City’s rushing attack all season. It’s a good matchup too, as Washington is 17th in EPA against the run and 20th in fantasy points allowed to running backs this season. If choosing between the two, I’ll side with Pacheco, who has seen 27 carries in the last 2 games.
The Chiefs’ defense is firmly in play here. They’ve had an elite pass defense this season, and this is a game where they will likely be playing with a lead. Kicker Harrison Butker is also a viable target in both cash games and tournaments.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
This is a slate where I am building a lot of Chiefs onslaught lineups. They are massive favorites and playing at home. There’s a path for their offensive pieces, their defense, and their kicker to perform well here. On Washington’s side, I really only feel great about Marcus Mariota. I’m planning to build lineups with only Mariota on one side, and then stacking the Chiefs. The hope is that Mariota spreads the ball around and racks up points on the ground.
Commanders vs. Chiefs DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | QB | 25.28 | $11,000 | 2.30 | ||
| Rashee Rice | KC | WR | 17.73 | $9,600 | 1.85 | ||
| Marcus Mariota | WAS | QB | 15.63 | $9,200 | 1.70 | ||
| Xavier Worthy | KC | WR | 12.07 | $8,600 | 1.40 | ||
| Deebo Samuel | WAS | WR | 11.59 | $9,000 | 1.29 | ||
| Terry McLaurin | WAS | WR | 11.33 | $8,400 | 1.35 | ||
| Isiah Pacheco | KC | RB | 11.28 | $7,000 | 1.61 | ||
| Travis Kelce | KC | TE | 10.22 | $8,000 | 1.28 | ||
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS | RB | 10.01 | $7,200 | 1.39 | ||
| Harrison Butker | KC | K | 8.89 | $5,000 | 1.78 | ||
| Zach Ertz | WAS | TE | 8.65 | $5,600 | 1.54 | ||
| Chiefs | KC | DST | 7.95 | $4,400 | 1.81 | ||
| Brashard Smith | KC | RB | 7.34 | $4,000 | 1.84 | ||
| Matt Gay | WAS | K | 6.76 | $4,800 | 1.41 | ||
| Hollywood Brown | KC | WR | 6.19 | $5,400 | 1.15 | ||
| Jeremy McNichols | WAS | RB | 5.86 | $3,400 | 1.72 | ||
| Kareem Hunt | KC | RB | 5.83 | $3,000 | 1.94 | ||
| Commanders | WAS | DST | 3.11 | $3,200 | 0.97 | ||
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | KC | WR | 3.01 | $2,400 | 1.25 | ||
| Jaylin Lane | WAS | WR | 2.83 | $4,200 | 0.67 | ||
| Nikko Remigio | KC | WR | 2.78 | $1,000 | 2.78 | ||
| Noah Gray | KC | TE | 2.65 | $2,000 | 1.33 | ||
| Luke McCaffrey | WAS | WR | 2.65 | $3,800 | 0.70 | ||
| Chris Moore | WAS | WR | 2.48 | $2,600 | 0.95 | ||
| Tyquan Thornton | KC | WR | 1.83 | $2,800 | 0.65 |
Commanders vs. Chiefs Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 10-12
Marcus Mariota more than 28.5 rushing yards (1.70x) – Sleeper Fantasy
Marcus Mariota has played in 3 games this season and has averaged over 30 rushing yards per game. In his 2 starts last season, he rushed for 34 and 56 yards. The Commanders will likely be trailing in this game, which could lead to more dropbacks and more scrambles for Mariota. Additionally, the best way to attack the Chiefs is on the ground, so I expect to see a few designed runs for Mariota. This number feels a bit light given how good Mariota has been on the ground throughout his career.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus