The NFL DFS Grind Down: Monday Night Football - Eagles vs. Chargers
For this Week 14 Monday Night Football matchup on 12/8 featuring the Eagles vs. Chargers, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Eagles vs. Chargers
We are back with another Monday edition of the NFL Grind Down. The Eagles have lost 2 games in a row, but they are still 8-4 on the season and are atop the NFC East. The Chargers are also 8-4 in the standings, but they are 2 full games behind the Broncos in the AFC West. This is an important game for both teams. The Eagles are 2.5-point favorites, and the game features a total of 41.5 points.
Key Injuries (Updated Saturday)
Justin Herbert – Questionable
Philadelphia Eagles Preview
Jalen Hurts has only attempted more than 33 passes in 3 games this season, and he’s done it in back-to-back weeks. When the Eagles have a lead, they want to lean on the run and their defense. When they are trailing or playing in a competitive game, they will turn the keys over to Hurts. Despite a low pass volume this season, he has still averaged 22 fantasy points per game. He has rushing upside, and there’s always the tush-push that we can rely on. He’s one of the top MVP/CPT targets despite a matchup against the Chargers, who are 7th in EPA allowed per dropback and 3rd in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Philly’s wideout usage (2025):
- A.J. Brown: 90% route participation, 27% target share, 36% air-yards share
- DeVonta Smith: 94% route participation, 25% target share, 37% air-yards share
- Jahan Dotson: 65% route participation, 6% target share, 10% air-yards share
- Dallas Goedert: 18% route participation, 17% target share, 16% air-yards share
Complaining about your role doesn’t get you very far in any career, but it certainly seems to work for wide receivers. After some interesting comments, A.J. Brown has seen double-digit targets in each of the last 3 games. In the last 2 weeks combined, he has caught 18 passes for 142 yards and 3 touchdowns. DeVonta Smith has nearly identical usage to Brown this season and is likely going to be the lower-owned of the two in this game. It’s a brutal matchup for both, as the Chargers are 1st in fantasy points allowed to receivers.
Jahan Dotson might be on the field a lot, but he has only seen a 6% target share this season. There’s a chance Dotson is unable to suit up for this game. If that happens, Darius Cooper could be the WR3 for the Eagles. Dallas Goedert doesn’t have a huge ceiling, but he’s seen 17% of the team’s targets and 16% of the team’s air yards. His matchup isn’t much better, but the Chargers did give up 2 touchdowns to Brock Bowers last week.
Saquon Barkley has averaged 14 fantasy points per game this season and has been held under 10 fantasy points in 5 games. It’s been a far cry from his 2024 campaign. The efficiency is down, the touchdown production is down, and he hasn’t had a huge role in the passing game. I will note that it’s easier to move the ball on the ground against the Chargers, as they are below the league average in PFF’s grades against the run and EPA against the run.
The Chargers have given up a lot of sacks this season, and the Eagles have a stout defense. At the very least, Philly’s defense is viable in tournaments. Kicker Jake Elliott has only made more than 1 field goal in 2 games all season. It looks like a good spot on paper, but the Eagles don’t settle for many field goals.
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Los Angeles Chargers Preview
Justin Herbert has battled through injuries for what feels like his entire career. He broke his hand last week and had to have surgery, but he’s been able to practice this week and is tentatively expected to suit up against the Eagles. The good news is that it’s on his non-throwing hand; the bad news is that he’s naturally going to want to protect it. I could see a more run-heavy approach from the Chargers if this game stays competitive. As far as the matchup goes, the Eagles are 11th in EPA against the pass and 14th in fantasy points allowed to running backs.
Los Angeles’ wideout usage (2025):
- Ladd McConkey: 84% route participation, 22% target share, 26% air-yards share
- Quentin Johnston: 85% route participation, 17% target share, 25% air-yards share
- Keenan Allen: 69% route participation, 21% target share, 26% air-yards share
- Oronde Gadsden: 63% route participation, 14% target share, 18% air-yards share
The Chargers have one of the most balanced target trees in the NFL. Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, Keenan Allen, and Oronde Gadsden all have at least a 14% target share and at least an 18% air yards share. McConkey has been the go-to wideout in this offense over the last couple of months, but he’s also the most expensive. After running a lot of routes from the outside early in the season, his slot rate is now up to 63%. With Herbert looking to get the ball out quickly, McConkey stands out as my favorite pass-catcher.
Johnston is the biggest deep threat in this offense. He’s only seen 17% of the team’s targets, but he’s seen 25% of the team’s air yards. I’m not sure how long Herbert is going to have a clean pocket in this game, but Johnston’s big-play ability puts him in play for tournaments. Allen has been held under 10 fantasy points in each of the last 5 games. Gadsden was the chalk that busted on last week’s main slate, and the Eagles are 4th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
Omarion Hampton is back at practice and is tentatively expected to return to the lineup this week. If that’s the case, he’ll likely be on a snap count. With Kimani Vidal playing well in his absence, we could be looking at a timeshare moving forward. It’s hard to trust either running back if both are active, but the Eagles have allowed the 7th-most fantasy points to running backs. If Hampton is out, Vidal will make a strong play in all formats.
The Chargers have a good defense and are playing at home, but the Eagles aren’t a turnover-prone team. I would only look to their defense in large-field tournaments. Kicker Cameron Dicker has made multiple field goals in 4 of the last 5 games and is viable in all formats.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
This slate is loaded with star power, but we don’t have many value plays to choose from. There are some obvious stars and scrubs slates, but there aren’t any super cheap plays that we can feel good about. It’s extremely tough to make lineups that look good on paper. These are the slates where we have to embrace the ugliness. For the Eagles, I am prioritizing Jalen Hurts. For the Chargers, I am prioritizing Justin Herbert, Ladd McConkey, and Cameron Dicker.
Eagles vs. Chargers DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | QB | 19.96 | $10,600 | 1.88 | $13,200 | 1.51 |
| Saquon Barkley | PHI | RB | 17.58 | $9,600 | 1.83 | $11,800 | 1.49 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | QB | 15.62 | $10,000 | 1.56 | $12,200 | 1.28 |
| A.J. Brown | PHI | WR | 14.83 | $9,000 | 1.65 | $11,400 | 1.30 |
| DeVonta Smith | PHI | WR | 13.54 | $8,400 | 1.61 | $9,600 | 1.41 |
| Ladd McConkey | LAC | WR | 13.08 | $8,800 | 1.49 | $10,600 | 1.23 |
| Omarion Hampton | LAC | RB | 11.44 | $7,800 | 1.47 | $8,200 | 1.40 |
| Oronde Gadsden | LAC | TE | 9.87 | $5,800 | 1.70 | $6,400 | 1.54 |
| Keenan Allen | LAC | WR | 9.18 | $6,600 | 1.39 | $7,600 | 1.21 |
| Dallas Goedert | PHI | TE | 9.07 | $5,400 | 1.68 | $7,200 | 1.26 |
| Kimani Vidal | LAC | RB | 8.69 | $7,400 | 1.17 | $8,800 | 0.99 |
| Cameron Dicker | LAC | K | 8.06 | $5,000 | 1.61 | $6,200 | 1.30 |
| Quentin Johnston | LAC | WR | 7.63 | $7,000 | 1.09 | $7,000 | 1.09 |
| Eagles | PHI | DST | 7.31 | $4,400 | 1.66 | $6,800 | 1.08 |
| Jake Elliott | PHI | K | 7.24 | $4,800 | 1.51 | $6,600 | 1.10 |
| Chargers | LAC | DST | 6.01 | $3,600 | 1.67 | $6,000 | 1.00 |
| Tre Harris | LAC | WR | 4.24 | $3,200 | 1.33 | $5,200 | 0.82 |
| Jahan Dotson | PHI | WR | 2.91 | $3,000 | 0.97 | $4,600 | 0.63 |
| Tank Bigsby | PHI | RB | 1.42 | $2,600 | 0.55 | $3,600 | 0.39 |
Eagles vs. Chargers Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 20-21
Ladd McConkey more than 4.5 receptions (1.95x) – Sleeper Fantasy
I’m surprised we are getting such a good price (1.95x) on McConkey’s receptions, but I suppose he’s had less than 4.5 receptions in 4 straight games. The Chargers were playing with leads in most of those games, but they are small underdogs in this one. With Justin Herbert nursing a broken left hand, the Chargers will do whatever it takes to keep him upright in this game. To me, that means a lot of short passes. McConkey has a 63% slot rate this season, so he could get peppered with targets underneath.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus