The NFL DFS Grind Down: Monday Night Football - 49ers vs. Colts
For this Week 16 Monday Night Football matchup on 12/22 featuring the Niners vs. Colts, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – 49ers vs. Colts
We are back at it with another Monday night edition of the NFL Grind Down. The Niners and Colts are both still alive in the postseason hunt. The Niners have already locked up a playoff spot in the NFC and can still win their division if they can catch the Seahawks and Rams. The Colts need to win out and get some help to make the playoffs, as their chances currently sit at 10%. Tonight’s game in Indianapolis has a 5.5-point spread and a 46.5-point total.
Key Injuries (Updated Sunday)
Ricky Pearsall – Out
Brandon Aiyuk – Out
San Francisco 49ers Preview
The Niners are looking for their 5th win in a row. Brock Purdy is back in the lineup, and this offense has been firing on all cylinders. He’s coming off his best game of the season, throwing for 295 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Titans. His matchup against the Colts is mediocre on paper, as they are 14th in EPA allowed per dropback and 13th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Purdy offers a little rushing upside and is one of the top MVP/CPT targets on the slate.
San Francisco’s wideout usage (2025):
- Jauan Jennings: 78% route participation, 18% target share, 27% air-yards share
- Demarcus Robinson: 47% route participation, 7% target share, 15% air-yards share
- Kendrick Bourne: 58% route participation, 10% target share, 16% air-yards share
- George Kittle: 75% route participation, 20% target share, 17% air-yards share
With Ricky Pearsall out, Jauan Jennings could see an uptick in targets and air yards. With that said, he’ll likely draw coverage from Sauce Gardner, who is still an excellent cover corner. There’s a tradeoff here, as Jennings could see more volume, yet he draws a tough individual matchup. Demarcus Robinson and Kendrick Bourne will round out 3-receiver sets. Bourne will man the slot, while Robinson will line up outside. The Colts are 30th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.
George Kittle is my favorite wideout on the Niners. He should see an uptick in target share with Pearsall out, and he’s had several ceiling games already this season. The Colts have long struggled to defend the middle of the field and have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to tight ends this season.
Christian McCaffrey has averaged 25 fantasy points per game this season. He’s done it on the ground and through the air. He’s seen at least 20 carries in 3 straight games and has had at least 4 receptions in 5 of his last 6 games. It’s a mediocre matchup, as the Colts are 20th in PFF’s grades against the run and 11th in fantasy points allowed to running backs. Backup Brian Robinson Jr. has had at least 7 carries in 5 straight games, but he’s not really involved in the passing game. He’ll need to score a touchdown to find his way into the optimal lineup.
The Niners defense hasn’t been elite this season, but they are facing a 44-year-old quarterback who was sitting on his couch watching football two weeks ago. At the very least, they are worth a look in tournaments. Kicker Eddy Pineiro is one of my favorite value plays on the slate.
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Indianapolis Colts Preview
The Colts have to feel like this season slipped through their fingers. After an incredible start, they have lost 4 games in a row and are in danger of missing the playoffs. The quarterback injury situation got so bad that they had to call Philip Rivers to come back after being retired for 5 years. While I love the story and would love a storybook ending, it’s wild that we are here. To his credit, Rivers managed the game fairly well last week against the Seahawks. He didn’t put up great stats, but he nearly led the Colts to a win. On Monday night, he’ll square off against the Niners, who are 25th in EPA allowed per dropback and 21st in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. I’m not sure what type of upside he offers, but he’s viable given the nature of Showdown slates.
Indianapolis’ wideout usage (2025):
- Michael Pittman: 85% route participation, 22% target share, 23% air-yards share
- Alec Pierce: 84% route participation, 18% target share, 44% air-yards share
- Josh Downs: 61% route participation, 16% target share, 15% air-yards share
- Tyler Warren: 80% route participation, 19% target share, 14% air-yards share
We should temper our expectations on this passing game. While the Niners are a much better matchup than the Seahawks, Rivers only threw for 120 yards last week. He wasn’t looking to throw the ball downfield, which could be troublesome for Alec Pierce, who runs a lot of deep routes. Michael Pittman had the most receiving yards of any wideout last week, but it was only 26 yards. The sneaky play here is Josh Downs, who saw 5 targets. He runs most of his routes from the slot and underneath, which is where Rivers is looking to throw the ball. Tyler Warren is worth a look as well, although I will likely be maxing out on one Colts wideout in each build.
Jonathan Taylor has been held under 16 fantasy points in 4 straight games, but he’s had a string of brutal matchups (Seahawks, Jaguars, Texans, Chiefs). The Niners will be able to load the box in this game, but it’s still an exploitable matchup, as San Francisco is 26th in PFF’s grades against the run and 18th in fantasy points allowed to running backs. We know Rivers likes to dump the ball off to running backs, so we could see 3+ receptions for both Taylor and Ameer Abdullah.
The Colts defense is at home, but they are facing one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL and are 5.5-point underdogs. I’ll take my chances with a fade. Kicker Blake Grupe is viable, especially if you think this will be a low-scoring game.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
This is a strange slate. The spread is fairly close, yet it’s hard to make a strong case for anyone on the Colts outside of Jonathan Taylor. With Ricky Pearsall out and the Niners offense rolling, I’m looking to get as much exposure to San Francisco’s offense as possible. When it comes to the Colts passing attack, I will employ a rule in LineupHQ that gives me a maximum of one wideout. It’s hard for me to envision a scenario where two of their wideouts have ceiling games with Rivers under center.
Niners vs. Colts DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | RB | 24.71 | $11,800 | 2.09 | $13,000 | 1.90 |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND | RB | 22.42 | $11,000 | 2.04 | $12,600 | 1.78 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | QB | 19.21 | $10,400 | 1.85 | $11,800 | 1.63 |
| George Kittle | SF | TE | 15.97 | $8,400 | 1.90 | $11,200 | 1.43 |
| Jauan Jennings | SF | WR | 13.20 | $8,000 | 1.65 | $9,400 | 1.40 |
| Philip Rivers | IND | QB | 10.87 | $8,800 | 1.24 | $10,200 | 1.07 |
| Tyler Warren | IND | TE | 10.63 | $6,600 | 1.61 | $7,600 | 1.40 |
| Eddy Pineiro | SF | K | 8.93 | $5,000 | 1.79 | $6,800 | 1.31 |
| Michael Pittman | IND | WR | 8.24 | $7,400 | 1.11 | $8,400 | 0.98 |
| Blake Grupe | IND | K | 7.93 | $4,600 | 1.72 | $6,200 | 1.28 |
| Alec Pierce | IND | WR | 7.31 | $7,000 | 1.04 | $8,600 | 0.85 |
| 49ers | SF | DST | 6.71 | $4,800 | 1.40 | $7,000 | 0.96 |
| Kendrick Bourne | SF | WR | 6.65 | $4,400 | 1.51 | $7,200 | 0.92 |
| Josh Downs | IND | WR | 5.96 | $5,600 | 1.06 | $6,600 | 0.90 |
| Brian Robinson | SF | RB | 5.37 | $3,000 | 1.79 | $5,400 | 0.99 |
| Colts | IND | DST | 4.76 | $3,400 | 1.40 | $6,000 | 0.79 |
| Demarcus Robinson | SF | WR | 4.33 | $4,000 | 1.08 | $4,800 | 0.90 |
| Ameer Abdullah | IND | RB | 2.92 | $2,400 | 1.22 | $3,600 | 0.81 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | SF | RB | 2.34 | $1,400 | 1.67 | $1,800 | 1.30 |
| Luke Farrell | SF | TE | 1.57 | $1,600 | 0.98 | $3,000 | 0.52 |
Niners vs. Colts Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 22-24
Jonathan Taylor more than 94.5 rushing yards (1.81x) – Sleeper Fantasy
This is a high rushing total for Jonathan Taylor, especially since the Colts are 5.5-point underdogs. However, they are playing at home and are going to feed him as many carries as possible. Even in a difficult matchup on the road against the Seahawks last week, Taylor had 25 carries for 87 yards. As long as the game is competitive, Taylor should have a clear path to 20+ carries against the Niners, who are 26th in PFF’s grades against the run.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus