The NFL DFS Grind Down: Super Bowl 60
For this Super Bowl LX matchup featuring the Seahawks vs. Patriots, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Super Bowl LX
Super Bowl week is always a strange one because it feels like the NFL season ended with the Conference Championships. However, we still have the biggest game of the year to look forward to on Sunday. The Seahawks paved their way to the Super Bowl by securing a 1st-round bye and then beating the Niners and Rams. The Patriots picked up wins against the Chargers, Texans, and Broncos to punch their ticket to the big dance. Many will argue that New England has had an easy path, but you can only beat the teams placed in front of you.
The Seahawks are listed as 4.5-point favorites, while the game has a total of 45.5 points.
Key Injuries
Zach Charbonnet – Out
Seattle Seahawks Preview
When the Seahawks gave Sam Darnold a $100 million contract in the offseason, many were quick to say that they should have kept Geno Smith for much cheaper. Many also expected Seattle to finish dead last in their division. Darnold and the Seahawks proved all of the doubters wrong by having the best seed in the NFC and making it all the way to the Super Bowl. For fantasy purposes, we need the Seahawks to get pushed in order for Darnold to have a ceiling performance. With Seattle dominating games over the last couple of months, he’s been held under 12 fantasy points in 5 of his last 8 games. He’s obviously a strong play on this Showdown slate, but there is certainly a path to him underperforming.
Seattle’s wideout usage (playoffs):
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 93% route participation, 30% target share, 38% air-yards share
- Cooper Kupp: 73% route participation, 21% target share, 19% air-yards share
- Rashid Shaheed: 61% route participation, 10% target share, 28% air-yards share
- Jake Bobo: 17% route participation, 6% target share, 6% air-yards share
- AJ Barner: 76% route participation, 6% target share, 4% air-yards share
- Eric Saubert: 22% route participation, 0% target share, 0% air-yards share
Jaxon Smith-Njigba will likely be the Offensive Player of the Year. He’s coming off a huge outing against the Rams (10/153/1) and has dominated Seattle’s target share and air yards share. The Patriots have an excellent cover corner in Christian Gonzalez, but JSN is so quick and shifty that I have a hard time seeing Gonzalez slowing him down much. However, that’s the case to fade JSN if you want to be different in tournaments. Cooper Kupp has quietly had a big role in the 2 playoff games, racking up a 21% target share and a 19% air yards share. The fact that he’s seeing more targets downfield is encouraging.
Rashid Shaheed is interesting for a couple of reasons. He tends to get a couple of deep targets per game, and he runs back kicks. This gives us two different ways that he can potentially score a touchdown. Jake Bobo doesn’t run many routes, but he’s a decent red-zone threat if you want to throw him in your MME mix. AJ Barner has been awfully quiet in the postseason, but he has run a route on 76% of dropbacks over the last 2 games. Eric Saubert hasn’t seen a target in the playoffs, but he has run a route on 22% of dropbacks. He won’t make my player pool, but my goal in this article is to leave no stone unturned.
After Zach Charbonnet went down with his injury against the Niners, it has been the Kenneth Walker show. In the last 2 games, he has turned 45 touches into 256 yards from scrimmage and 4 touchdowns. With the Seahawks being 4.5-point favorites, he has a clear path to 20+ touches against the Patriots, who were 18th in PFF’s grades against the run and 16th in EPA against the run during the regular season. George Holani played on 35% of snaps in the NFC Championship. He had 3 carries and 3 receptions. He’s an interesting value play in tournaments.
The Seahawks have one of the best defensive units in the NFL, and Drake Maye has been turnover-prone in the playoffs. There’s certainly a path for Seattle’s defense to have a strong fantasy outing, especially if they can build an early lead. Jason Myers has been one of the best kickers in the league this season. I could see the Seahawks moving the ball easily but settling for a few field goals. He’s one of my favorite UTIL plays on the slate.
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New England Patriots Preview
Drake Maye had an MVP-caliber regular season, but he hasn’t looked too sharp in the playoffs. He’s thrown 2 interceptions and has lost 3 fumbles. With that said, he still led his team to the Super Bowl. What I love most about Maye for DFS is his rushing upside. He’s had 24 rushing attempts in the playoffs and has racked up 141 yards and a touchdown on the ground. His matchup against the Seahawks is brutal (top 10 in every pass defense metric), but his rushing upside makes him a strong option for both cash games and tournaments.
New England’s wideout usage (playoffs):
- Stefon Diggs: 79% route participation, 21% target share, 12% air-yards share
- Kayshon Boutte: 75% route participation, 19% target share, 36% air-yards share
- Mack Hollins: 41% route participation, 10% target share, 16% air-yards share
- DeMario Douglas: 43% route participation, 6% target share, 5% air-yards share
- Kyle Williams: 29% route participation, 5% target share, 10% air-yards share
- Hunter Henry: 73% route participation, 14% target share, 20% air-yards share
- Austin Hooper: 28% route participation, 4% target share, 6% air-yards share
During the regular season, the Seahawks were 5th in EPA allowed per dropback and 4th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. It’s a tough spot for Stefon Diggs, Kayshon Boutte, Mack Hollins, and DeMario Douglas. However, we have to expect at least one of them to have a decent game. In the playoffs, Diggs has led the team in targets, while Boutte has led the team in air yards. Hollins wasn’t able to suit up in the first 2 games, but he ran a route on 41% of dropbacks in the AFC Championship game and came up with 2 huge receptions. On a per-dollar basis, Hollins is my favorite of the three.
DeMario Douglas runs most of his routes from the slot, which limits his upside. I’d have more interest if he had a target share higher than 6% in the playoffs. I’d rather chase the upside of Kyle Williams, who could see a deep target or two in this game. The one and only favorable matchup when facing the Seahawks is at tight end. Seattle allowed the 11th most fantasy points to tight ends during the regular season. Hunter Henry has seen 20% of the team’s air yards in the postseason and is always a big threat in the red zone. If you want to get contrarian, Austin Hooper could find his way into the optimal lineup by scoring a touchdown.
The Patriots have leaned heavily on Rhamondre Stevenson in their most important games of the season. He had 5 touchdowns in the last 2 regular-season games, and he has played on 72% of the snaps in the playoffs. More importantly, he played on 93% of the snaps in the AFC Championship. The Seahawks have been tough against the run this season, but they have given up the most receptions and the 6th most receiving yards to running backs. I could see Stevenson having a big game through the air. TreVeyon Henderson will likely play more snaps than he did in the last game, but he’s been ineffective over the last 6 games.
The Patriots have a good defense, and Sam Darnold can get rattled at times. There’s certainly a path for New England to force a couple of turnovers, and perhaps they can turn one of them into a score. At low ownership, they are worth a look in tournaments. I don’t have a ton of interest in Andy Borregales, but he should be super low-owned as well.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
The popular build is going to lean heavily towards the Seahawks. Sam Darnold, Kenneth Walker, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are going to be considered priorities by most of the field (rightly so). In tournaments, I’m likely going to have a rule in LineupHQ that sets a max of 2 of these 3 players. I could see Darnold and JSN having nice games, I could see Seattle dominating on the ground, but JSN still getting there, and I could see Darnold having a decent game where he spreads the ball around and happens to throw a touchdown to Walker. Jason Myers is one of my favorite options on the board, and both defenses deserve consideration in large-field tournaments. For the Patriots, my favorite plays are Drake Maye, Rhamondre Stevenson, Mack Hollins, and Hunter Henry.
Super Bowl LX Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | WR | 21.56 | $11,600 | 1.86 | $13,000 | 1.66 |
| Drake Maye | NE | QB | 20.49 | $11,000 | 1.86 | $12,600 | 1.63 |
| Kenneth Walker | SEA | RB | 19.01 | $9,800 | 1.94 | $11,200 | 1.70 |
| Sam Darnold | SEA | QB | 16.51 | $10,800 | 1.53 | $11,800 | 1.40 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | RB | 15.35 | $8,800 | 1.74 | $10,400 | 1.48 |
| Stefon Diggs | NE | WR | 11.63 | $8,600 | 1.35 | $9,600 | 1.21 |
| Hunter Henry | NE | TE | 10.81 | $7,000 | 1.54 | $7,600 | 1.42 |
| Jason Myers | SEA | K | 8.50 | $5,400 | 1.57 | $6,800 | 1.25 |
| AJ Barner | SEA | TE | 8.26 | $4,800 | 1.72 | $5,200 | 1.59 |
| Cooper Kupp | SEA | WR | 7.83 | $5,200 | 1.51 | $8,600 | 0.91 |
| Andy Borregales | NE | K | 7.52 | $5,000 | 1.50 | $6,200 | 1.21 |
| Mack Hollins | NE | WR | 7.42 | $3,600 | 2.06 | $6,400 | 1.16 |
| Kayshon Boutte | NE | WR | 7.10 | $5,600 | 1.27 | $7,200 | 0.99 |
| Rashid Shaheed | SEA | WR | 6.42 | $4,200 | 1.53 | $5,800 | 1.11 |
| Seahawks | SEA | DST | 5.89 | $4,400 | 1.34 | $7,000 | 0.84 |
| Patriots | NE | DST | 5.48 | $4,000 | 1.37 | $6,600 | 0.83 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | NE | RB | 4.66 | $3,800 | 1.23 | $8,200 | 0.57 |
| George Holani | SEA | RB | 4.62 | $2,400 | 1.93 | $4,400 | 1.05 |
| Austin Hooper | NE | TE | 2.92 | $2,000 | 1.46 | $2,200 | 1.33 |
| DeMario Douglas | NE | WR | 2.59 | $3,200 | 0.81 | $4,000 | 0.65 |
| Kyle Williams | NE | WR | 1.48 | $2,800 | 0.53 | $2,400 | 0.62 |
| Eric Saubert | SEA | TE | 1.03 | $600 | 1.72 | $1,200 | 0.86 |
| Jake Bobo | SEA | WR | 0.88 | $1,600 | 0.55 | $3,400 | 0.26 |
| Cam Akers | SEA | RB | 0.29 | $1,400 | 0.21 | $2,600 | 0.11 |
Super Bowl LX Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 25-26
Rhamondre Stevenson more than 24.5 receiving yards (1.81x) – Sleeper Fantasy
This number feels way too low given the expected game script and matchup. The Patriots are 4.5-point underdogs in this game. If they fall behind early, they will be forced to air it out in the second half. Stevenson has played on 73% of the snaps in the playoffs, so he should be on the field a ton. More importantly, one of the best ways to move the ball against the Seahawks is with a good receiving back. During the regular season, they allowed the most receptions and the 6th most receiving yards to running backs.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus