The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Morning Football - Commanders vs. Dolphins
For this Week 11 Sunday Morning Football matchup on 11/16 featuring the Commanders vs. Dolphins, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Commanders vs. Dolphins
We are back with another international edition of the NFL Grind Down. After several games in Europe, the NFL heads to Spain for a battle between the Commanders and Dolphins. Both of these teams are sitting at 3-7 in the standings, so it would take a small miracle for one of them to make the playoffs. These teams do seem to be trending in opposite directions, as the Commanders have lost 5 games in a row, while the Bills are coming off a huge win against the Bills. This game features a 2.5-point spread and a 47.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Jayden Daniels – Out
Terry McLaurin – Out
Luke McCaffrey – Out
Washington Commanders Preview
Jayden Daniels has been ruled out of this game, which means we’ll get another start from Marcus Mariota. Thanks to his rushing upside, he’s one of the most capable backup quarterbacks in the NFL. In his starts this season, he has scored 19, 13, 17, and 21 fantasy points. He has a dream matchup against the Dolphins, who are 29th in EPA allowed per dropback and 24th in fantasy points allowed per game. He’s close to a must-play on this slate and deserves consideration at MVP and CPT.
Washington’s wideout usage (2025):
- Deebo Samuel: 79% route participation, 24% target share, 17% air yards share
- Jaylin Lane: 43% route participation, 10% target share, 16% air yards share
- Chris Moore: 55% route participation, 7% target share, 13% air yards share
- Zach Ertz: 72% route participation, 17% target share, 18% air yards share
Deebo Samuel has really struggled over the last 4 games, averaging less than 10 fantasy points per contest. While not ideal, three of those matchups were difficult. He still leads the team in target share and has had at least 1 rushing attempt in 3 of the last 4 games. Jaylin Lane has yet to score double-digit fantasy points in a game this season, but he should run plenty of routes with Terry McLaurin and Luke McCaffrey both out. Chris Moore and Robbie Chosen (revenge game) will mix in as well.
The Dolphins are bad against the pass, yet they have allowed the 4th-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season. The matchup could funnel more targets to Zach Ertz, who already boasts a 17% target share and a 16% air yards share. The Dolphins have allowed the 3rd-most fantasy points to tight ends.
Over the last 3 games, the Commanders have had a 3-man backfield. Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Chris Rodriguez, and Jeremy McNichols have all played between 27% and 45% of the snaps. JCM has been more of the early-down back, while McNichols has been more of the pass-catching back. Rodriguez has been the short-yardage back, as he’s scored 3 touchdowns in the last 4 games. If you can guess which back will get the most work, it could be the key to the slate. The Dolphins have allowed the 8th-most fantasy points to running backs this season.
The Commanders have struggled defensively this season and don’t get much pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Kicker Matt Gay is firmly in play, as the Commanders should be able to move the ball easily against this defense.
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Miami Dolphins Preview
It’s been a disappointing season for the Dolphins, but they are coming off a big win against the Bills. Tua Tagovailoa doesn’t offer rushing upside at this stage of his career, which is part of the reason why his game log has been all over the map. He’s topped 22 fantasy points in 3 games and has been held under 10 fantasy points in 4 games this season. He has an elite matchup against the Commanders, who are 32nd in EPA allowed per dropback and 29th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Miami’s wideout usage (Weeks 5-10):
- Jaylen Waddle: 74% route participation, 22% target share, 51% air yards share
- Malik Washington: 62% route participation, 15% target share, 11% air yards share
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhine: 56% route participation, 7% target share, 6% air yards share
- Greg Dulcich: 46% route participation, 9% target share, 7% air yards share
Since Tyreek Hill went down with his injury (Week 4), Jaylen Waddle has seen a 22% target share and a 51% air yards share. He’s topped 80 receiving yards in every one of those games except one and has scored 3 touchdowns during that stretch. He should be licking his chops for a matchup against the Commanders, who have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to wide receivers this season.
Waddle is clearly the top wideout for the Dolphins, and then there’s a big gap before we get to Malik Washington, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, and Greg Dulcich. Washington is at a tough price point, which should keep ownership at a reasonable level. From a projections standpoint, Westbrook-Ikhine and Dulcich stand out as the better options on this slate. Dulcich is sneaky after seeing 9 targets in the last 2 games.
De’Von Achane is coming off a massive game where he racked up 225 yards from scrimmage and 2 touchdowns. He’s essentially an RB1 mixed with a WR2. He should be considered the top target on the Dolphins in this game. He’s firmly in play at MVP and CPT. He draws a nice matchup against the Commanders, who are 24th in EPA against the run and 23rd in points allowed per game to running backs. Ollie Gordon and Jaylen Wright will see some snaps, but they’ll likely need a touchdown to sneak into the optimal lineup.
The Dolphins defense looked good last week against the Bills, but they have been awful for most of the season. I’ll take my chances with a fade. Kicker Riley Patterson has made multiple field goals in 4 of the last 5 games.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
On Washington’s side, I consider Marcus Mariota a priority in both cash games and tournaments. While there are a couple of players with a higher ceiling than him, I am still considering using him at MVP and CPT. There are too many running backs getting work in this offense for my liking, so I’ll likely avoid them all in small-field contests. For large-field tournaments, I don’t mind including one of them in each build. On Miami’s side, I am prioritizing Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane over Tua Tagovailoa. I’m not going to waste a roster spot on either defense, but I could see the kickers being valuable on this slate.
Commanders vs. Dolphins DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De’Von Achane | MIA | RB | 24.15 | $12,200 | 1.98 | $13,400 | 1.80 |
| Marcus Mariota | WAS | QB | 17.30 | $9,800 | 1.77 | $12,400 | 1.40 |
| Jaylen Waddle | MIA | WR | 16.38 | $10,600 | 1.55 | $11,400 | 1.44 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | QB | 16.23 | $10,000 | 1.62 | $12,000 | 1.35 |
| Deebo Samuel | WAS | WR | 13.09 | $9,600 | 1.36 | $10,600 | 1.23 |
| Zach Ertz | WAS | TE | 11.42 | $5,800 | 1.97 | $6,000 | 1.90 |
| Malik Washington | MIA | WR | 9.24 | $6,200 | 1.49 | $8,600 | 1.07 |
| Chris Rodriguez | WAS | RB | 8.91 | $6,600 | 1.35 | $7,400 | 1.20 |
| Riley Patterson | MIA | K | 8.41 | $5,000 | 1.68 | $6,800 | 1.24 |
| Matt Gay | WAS | K | 7.67 | $4,800 | 1.60 | $6,400 | 1.20 |
| Robbie Chosen | WAS | WR | 6.73 | $2,200 | 3.06 | $1,000 | 6.73 |
| Dolphins | MIA | DST | 6.41 | $4,000 | 1.60 | $6,600 | 0.97 |
| Greg Dulcich | MIA | TE | 6.34 | $2,800 | 2.26 | $4,000 | 1.59 |
| Jeremy McNichols | WAS | RB | 6.16 | $5,400 | 1.14 | $5,400 | 1.14 |
| Commanders | WAS | DST | 5.61 | $3,600 | 1.56 | $6,200 | 0.90 |
| Jaylin Lane | WAS | WR | 5.59 | $4,400 | 1.27 | $5,000 | 1.12 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | MIA | WR | 5.38 | $3,000 | 1.79 | $2,800 | 1.92 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS | RB | 3.92 | $7,000 | 0.56 | $9,600 | 0.41 |
| Julian Hill | MIA | TE | 3.24 | $1,600 | 2.03 | $1,600 | 2.03 |
| Chris Moore | WAS | WR | 2.81 | $2,000 | 1.41 | $4,200 | 0.67 |
| Ollie Gordon | MIA | RB | 2.73 | $2,400 | 1.14 | $3,200 | 0.85 |
| John Bates | WAS | TE | 2.63 | $1,000 | 2.63 | $1,800 | 1.46 |
| Jaylen Wright | MIA | RB | 2.14 | $1,400 | 1.53 | $3,600 | 0.59 |
| Cedrick Wilson | MIA | WR | 1.80 | $200 | 9.00 | $1,000 | 1.80 |
Commanders vs. Dolphins Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 15-15
Jaylen Waddle more than 78.5 receiving yards (1.78x) – Sleeper Fantasy
We did it; we are back to .500 on the season. For Sunday morning, we are rolling with Jaylen Waddle to get more than 78.5 receiving yards. As noted earlier, he has a massive 52% air yards share in this offense since Tyreek Hill went down with his injury. In those 6 games, Waddle has racked up at least 82 receiving yards in 5 games. Tua Tagovailoa should have plenty of time in the pocket, as the Commanders don’t have a good pass rush. More importantly, Washington has allowed more receiving yards to wide receivers than any other team in the NFL.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus