The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Bears vs. Niners
For this Week 17 Sunday Night Football matchup on 12/28 featuring the Bears vs. Niners, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Bears vs. Niners
We have an NFC showdown for Sunday night’s Showdown slate. With the Packers’ loss last night, the Bears have clinched their division. They are still playing for seeding and can technically still finish with the top overall seed in the NFC, so they should still have plenty of motivation in this game. The Niners have won 5 games in a row and can grab the top seed in the NFC with two wins in the next two weeks. They’ll have the tiebreakers over the Seahawks, Rams, and Bears.
This is a huge game for both teams. The Niners are listed as 3.5-point favorites, while the game has a 51.5-point total.
Key Injuries (Updated Sunday)
Rome Odunze – Out
George Kittle – Doubtful
Ricky Pearsall – Probable
Chicago Bears Preview
Caleb Williams is a very polarizing player. People either think he’s the best (which is the minority at the moment) or the worst (which is strange given his statistics and Chicago’s record). Like most things in life, the true answer likely falls somewhere in the middle. From a fantasy perspective, he’s been solid in his sophomore campaign. He has averaged 19 fantasy points per game and has racked up at least 20 rushing yards in 6 of his last 9 games. He draws an excellent matchup against the Niners, who are 23rd in EPA allowed per dropback and 20th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Chicago’s wideout usage (Weeks 14-16):
- DJ Moore: 85% route participation, 15% target share, 34% air yards share
- Olamide Zaccheaus: 74% route participation, 11% target share, 15% air yards share
- Luther Burden: 58% route participation, 21% target share, 20% air yards share
- Colston Loveland: 63% route participation, 16% target share, 18% air yards share
- Cole Kmet: 58% route participation, 9% target share, 12% air yards share
Rome Odunze has been ruled out, so the usage metrics above are from the last 3 games with him out of the lineup. DJ Moore has paced the Bears in routes (85%) and air yards (34%), while Luther Burden and Colston Loveland have seen the most targets during that stretch. Olamide Zaccheaus doesn’t command a ton of targets, but he has run a route on 74% of dropbacks in the last 3 games. Moore has the best projection, Zaccheaus and Loveland offer the best value, and Burden offers the most upside. It’s a solid matchup for all of the wideouts, as the 49ers are 19th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and 22nd in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
Note: DJ Moore and Olamide Zaccheaus have both been downgraded to questionable.
In Week 16, we saw the snaps shift back in favor of D’Andre Swift. He played on 58% of the snaps, while Kyle Monangai played on 42% of the snaps. It’s funny – every week the player who sees an uptick in snaps ends up being less efficient than the other. Swift had 15 touches for 70 yards from scrimmage, while Monangai had 12 touches for 93 yards from scrimmage. The matchup is reasonable, as the Niners are close to the league average in PFF’s run grades and EPA against the run. With a split backfield, I have more interest in the passing game.
The Bears have to go on the road to face one of the best offenses in the NFL. I’ll take my chances with a fade of their defense. Kicker Cairo Santos has made at least 2 field goals in 6 of his last 10 games. He makes for a decent lineup filler.
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San Francisco 49ers Preview
Brock Purdy went nuclear on Monday night against the Colts. He threw for 295 yards and 5 touchdowns. He’s scored nearly 60 fantasy points in his last 2 games combined. This week, he squares off against the Bears, who are 25th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Purdy is close to a must-play on the slate and deserves consideration at MVP/CPT. He has more rushing upside than you might expect.
San Francisco’s wideout usage (Weeks 2-6):
- Jauan Jennings: 78% route participation, 14% target share, 21% air yards share
- Ricky Pearsall: 80% route participation, 19% target share, 40% air yards share
- Kendrick Bourne: 70% route participation, 16% target share, 22% air yards share
- Jake Tonges: 71% route participation, 15% target share, 10% air yards share
For the usage metrics above, I only included the games that George Kittle has missed this season (he’s listed as doubtful for tonight’s game). Jauan Jennings is thought of as the WR1 in San Francisco, but Ricky Pearsall has led the team in routes, targets, and air yards in games that Kittle has missed this season. I know he’s been nursing injuries all season, but I’m trusting the underlying usage and prioritizing Pearsall over Jennings tonight. Kendrick Bourne will continue to man the slot and could see a higher target share with Kittle out. Jake Tonges will see a major uptick in snaps and has been a nice red-zone threat for the Niners. The Bears are 22nd in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and 17th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
Christian McCaffrey has been one of the most productive players at any position this season. He has averaged 26 fantasy points per game and has been both matchup-proof and game script-proof. He’s going to see 15+ carries and 5+ targets every week. He draws an above-average matchup against the Bears, who are 19th in PFF’s grades against the run and 17th in EPA against the run. CMC is my favorite target at MVP/CPT for cash games and small-field tournaments.
Many think of Caleb Williams as a turnover-prone quarterback, but he’s only committed 7 turnovers all season. I’m happy to avoid both defenses in this game. Kicker Eddy Pineiro has made multiple field goals in 10 of the last 12 games. He’s firmly in play in all formats.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
This is a game filled with good fantasy options. I’m prioritizing both quarterbacks and Christian McCaffrey. This takes up most of the salary cap, especially if using one of those three at MVP/CPT. My favorite plays to fill the rest of the lineup with are Colston Loveland, Jake Tonges, Eddy Pineiro, and Olamide Zaccheaus.
Bears vs. Niners DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | RB | 29.42 | $11,800 | 2.49 | $13,800 | 2.13 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | QB | 22.27 | $10,600 | 2.10 | $12,600 | 1.77 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | QB | 19.56 | $10,000 | 1.96 | $12,000 | 1.63 |
| Jauan Jennings | SF | WR | 14.32 | $8,600 | 1.67 | $9,400 | 1.52 |
| D’Andre Swift | CHI | RB | 13.53 | $8,000 | 1.69 | $8,000 | 1.69 |
| Ricky Pearsall | SF | WR | 13.06 | $7,600 | 1.72 | $7,400 | 1.76 |
| Luther Burden | CHI | WR | 12.53 | $6,800 | 1.84 | $6,400 | 1.96 |
| D.J. Moore | CHI | WR | 12.13 | $8,400 | 1.44 | $8,600 | 1.41 |
| Colston Loveland | CHI | TE | 10.38 | $4,800 | 2.16 | $4,400 | 2.36 |
| Kyle Monangai | CHI | RB | 8.92 | $7,000 | 1.27 | $7,000 | 1.27 |
| Jake Tonges | SF | TE | 8.58 | $3,000 | 2.86 | $3,200 | 2.68 |
| Eddy Pineiro | SF | K | 8.19 | $5,400 | 1.52 | $6,800 | 1.20 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | CHI | WR | 7.70 | $4,600 | 1.67 | $5,200 | 1.48 |
| Cairo Santos | CHI | K | 7.33 | $5,200 | 1.41 | $6,600 | 1.11 |
| Cole Kmet | CHI | TE | 6.30 | $2,800 | 2.25 | $2,800 | 2.25 |
| 49ers | SF | DST | 5.69 | $4,000 | 1.42 | $6,000 | 0.95 |
| Kendrick Bourne | SF | WR | 4.80 | $5,000 | 0.96 | $4,800 | 1.00 |
| Brian Robinson | SF | RB | 4.52 | $3,400 | 1.33 | $5,600 | 0.81 |
| Bears | CHI | DST | 4.08 | $3,600 | 1.13 | $6,200 | 0.66 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | SF | RB | 3.15 | $2,000 | 1.58 | $1,600 | 1.97 |
| Demarcus Robinson | SF | WR | 2.54 | $4,400 | 0.58 | $3,600 | 0.71 |
| Luke Farrell | SF | TE | 2.13 | $1,600 | 1.33 | $2,400 | 0.89 |
Bears vs. Niners Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 22-25
Ricky Pearsall more than 43.5 receiving yards (1.83x) – Sleeper Fantasy
Even though he’s listed as questionable, Ricky Pearsall is expected to play tonight. Meanwhile, George Kittle is on the wrong side of the questionable tag. In the games that Kittle has missed this season, Pearsall has led the team in target share (20%) and air yards share (40%), so 43.5 receiving yards doesn’t seem like too high a bar for him to jump over.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus