The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Broncos vs. Commanders
For this Week 13 Sunday Night Football matchup on 11/30 featuring the Broncos vs. Commanders, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Broncos vs. Commanders
How great is the NFL? This week, we’ve had football games on Thursday, Friday, all day Sunday, and Monday. And yet I’m not sick of it in the slightest. For Sunday night’s game, we have the Broncos and Commanders, who are trending in opposite directions. The Broncos have won 8 games in a row and sit atop the AFC West, while the Commanders have lost 6 games in a row and have essentially been eliminated from playoff contention. Tonight’s game features a 6.5-point spread and a 43.5-point total.
Key Injuries (Updated Saturday)
Jayden Daniels – Out
Noah Brown – Out
J.K. Dobbins – Out
Nate Adkins – Out
Denver Broncos Preview
Bo Nix gets a lot of flak for not being a good real-life quarterback, but the Broncos are leading the AFC West, and he has averaged 19 fantasy points per game. From a fantasy standpoint, he’s been a consistent option with decent upside. The last 2 games haven’t been pretty, but he draws a get-right matchup against the Commanders, who are 31st in EPA allowed per dropback and 25th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Nix is close to a must on this slate and deserves consideration at MVP/CPT.
Denver’s 2025 wideout usage:
- Courtland Sutton: 81% route participation, 18% target share, 29% air yards share
- Troy Franklin: 75% route participation, 20% target share, 39% air yards share
- Pat Bryant: 38% route participation, 6% target share, 8% air yards share
- Evan Engram: 54% route participation, 13% target share, 8% air yards share
This is an elite matchup for the wide receivers, as the Commanders have allowed the 3rd-most fantasy points to the position. Courtland Sutton is widely thought of as the clear WR1 on the Broncos, but Troy Franklin actually has a higher target share (20%) and a higher air yards share (39%). For the first time all season, we have Franklin with a higher projection than Sutton. If that means Sutton is going to be lower owned, I’ll be overweight on him. I view both receivers as strong plays tonight.
Pat Bryant and Marvin Mims split the WR3 duties. I prefer Mims given his big-play potential, but both should only be used in large-field tournaments. Evan Engram has only run a route on 54% of dropbacks this season, but he has seen 13% of the team’s targets. The Commanders are 20th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. With Nate Adkins out, Adam Trautman could be used as a lineup filler on DraftKings ($1,600).
In the first game with J.K. Dobbins out, RJ Harvey played on 61% of the snaps and had 14 touches. He wasn’t particularly effective in his first start, but it was encouraging to see the usage. He draws an excellent matchup against the Commanders, who are 25th in EPA against the run and 27th in fantasy points allowed to running backs. This projects to be a good game script, so we can play Harvey with confidence. Jordan McLaughlin and Tyler Badie will split backup touches.
The Broncos have one of the best defenses in the NFL, and Marcus Mariota tends to take a lot of sacks. Denver’s defense is firmly in play here. Kicker Will Lutz is also viable in DFS, as he made all 5 of his field goal attempts last week.
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Washington Commanders Preview
Jayden Daniels is nearing a return (I’m not sure why the Commanders want to bring him back at this point), but he has been ruled out of this game against the Broncos. Marcus Mariota will draw another start. He’s a capable backup with some rushing upside, but the Broncos have one of the best defenses in the NFL. They are 4th in EPA allowed per dropback and 2nd in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Mariota is viable given the nature of Showdown slates, but I wouldn’t consider him a must.
Washington’s 2025 wideout usage:
- Terry McLaurin: 71% route participation, 17% target share, 37% air yards share
- Deebo Samuel: 80% route participation, 25% target share, 17% air yards share
- Chris Moore: 58% route participation, 8% target share, 15% air yards share
- Zach Ertz: 72% route participation, 18% target share, 21% air yards share
Terry McLaurin is set to play for the first time since Week 8. His reward after the long layoff is facing Patrick Surtain and the Broncos, who are 4th in EPA allowed per dropback and 3rd in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. We aren’t sure if he’s going to be on a snap count here, but it’s not like the matchup is exploitable anyway. Deebo Samuel has run 61% of his routes from the slot, so he should avoid coverage from Surtain. He’s coming off his best game in a while, catching 7-of-8 targets for 74 yards and a touchdown.
Treylon Burks and Chris Moore will split WR3 duties tonight. They could realistically put up zeroes in this spot, but I don’t mind Burks as a lineup filler. He’s only $1,000 on DraftKings. In his last 2 active games, he ran a route on 42% of dropbacks. Zach Ertz might be the best wideout to target on the Commanders tonight. He has solid usage metrics (18% target share, 21% air yards share) and a better matchup than the wide receivers.
We have an ugly three-way timeshare at running back for the Commanders. Chris Rodriguez, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, and Jeremy McNichols are all going to see significant snaps tonight against the Broncos, who are top 10 in PFF’s grades against the run, EPA against the run, and fantasy points allowed to running backs. My favorite of the trio is McNichols, who could see extra snaps if the Commanders fall behind early.
Washington has struggled against the run and the pass this season. I know they are playing at home, but I want no part of their defense on this slate. Your interest in kicker Jake Moody should depend on how you think this game will play out. If you think the Commanders have a chance in this game, Moody could be a sneaky value play.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
Even though this game features a fairly low spread, I have a lot more interest in the Broncos than I do in the Commanders. Bo Nix is my favorite play on the slate, RJ Harvey has a clear path to 15+ touches with J.K. Dobbins out, it’s a great matchup for the wideouts, the defense could generate pressure and turnovers, and kicker Will Lutz is in a good spot. I find myself building a lot of Denver onslaughts on this slate. My favorite one-off targets from Washington are Deebo Samuel, Zach Ertz, and Jeremy McNichols.
Broncos vs. Commanders DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | DEN | QB | 19.58 | $11,000 | 1.78 | $13,000 | 1.51 |
| Marcus Mariota | WAS | QB | 15.41 | $10,200 | 1.51 | $11,800 | 1.31 |
| RJ Harvey | DEN | RB | 15.08 | $8,400 | 1.80 | $11,400 | 1.32 |
| Troy Franklin | DEN | WR | 13.15 | $8,800 | 1.49 | $8,800 | 1.49 |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN | WR | 12.11 | $9,800 | 1.24 | $10,800 | 1.12 |
| Deebo Samuel | WAS | WR | 11.61 | $10,000 | 1.16 | $12,400 | 0.94 |
| Terry McLaurin | WAS | WR | 11.32 | $8,000 | 1.42 | $9,600 | 1.18 |
| Zach Ertz | WAS | TE | 10.00 | $7,000 | 1.43 | $6,600 | 1.52 |
| Broncos | DEN | DST | 8.33 | $5,400 | 1.54 | $7,000 | 1.19 |
| Evan Engram | DEN | TE | 8.17 | $4,600 | 1.78 | $3,400 | 2.40 |
| Wil Lutz | DEN | K | 8.00 | $5,000 | 1.60 | $6,800 | 1.18 |
| Jake Moody | WAS | K | 7.34 | $4,800 | 1.53 | $6,400 | 1.15 |
| Chris Rodriguez | WAS | RB | 6.75 | $6,400 | 1.05 | $8,400 | 0.80 |
| Pat Bryant | DEN | WR | 6.40 | $3,200 | 2.00 | $5,000 | 1.28 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | DEN | RB | 5.28 | $4,400 | 1.20 | $2,600 | 2.03 |
| Jeremy McNichols | WAS | RB | 5.15 | $4,000 | 1.29 | $5,600 | 0.92 |
| Marvin Mims | DEN | WR | 5.03 | $3,800 | 1.32 | $4,200 | 1.20 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS | RB | 4.86 | $6,800 | 0.71 | $7,400 | 0.66 |
| Commanders | WAS | DST | 4.76 | $3,400 | 1.40 | $6,200 | 0.77 |
| Treylon Burks | WAS | WR | 3.47 | $1,000 | 3.47 | $1,000 | 3.47 |
| Tyler Badie | DEN | RB | 3.04 | $1,400 | 2.17 | $2,200 | 1.38 |
| Adam Trautman | DEN | TE | 2.07 | $1,600 | 1.29 | $1,400 | 1.48 |
| Jaylin Lane | WAS | WR | 1.88 | $3,600 | 0.52 | $3,000 | 0.63 |
| John Bates | WAS | TE | 1.70 | $1,200 | 1.42 | $1,200 | 1.42 |
Broncos vs. Commanders Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 16-20
Will Lutz more than 1.5 field goals made (1.78x) – Sleeper Fantasy
The Broncos should be able to move the ball at will against the Commanders, who are 31st in EPA against the pass and 25th in EPA against the run. All we need is a couple of those drives to stall out on Washington’s side of the field. Will Lutz has attempted at least 2 field goals in 5 of his last 7 games.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus