The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Patriots vs. Ravens
For this Week 16 Sunday Night Football matchup on 12/21 featuring the Patriots vs. Ravens, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Patriots vs. Ravens
We have an important game on tap on Sunday night, as the Patriots and Ravens are both battling for their respective divisions. The Patriots control their own destiny in the AFC East, but the Bills are right on their tails after beating New England last week. The Ravens can still catch the Steelers in the AFC North, so there’s a lot on the line for them as well. This should be one of the better Showdown slates of the season. The game features a 3-point spread and a 48.5-point total.
Key Injuries (Updated Sunday)
None
New England Patriots Preview
Drake Maye has some work to do if he wants to pick up his first MVP award. Matthew Stafford is the odds-on favorite after the Patriots blew a big lead to the Bills at home last week. If the Patriots win out and the Rams stumble and lose one of their last 2 games, it could be enough to sway voters toward Maye. As for tonight, he’s one of the top targets on the slate. He has averaged 21 fantasy points per game this season and gets to face the Ravens, who are 17th in both EPA allowed per dropback and fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
New England’s wideout usage (2025):
- Stefon Diggs: 64% route participation, 20% target share, 20% air yards share
- Kayshon Boutte: 69% route participation, 11% target share, 22% air yards share
- Mack Hollins: 58% route participation, 14% target share, 21% air yards share
- Hunter Henry: 73% route participation, 17% target share, 16% air yards share
Stefon Diggs leads the team in target share, but he’s been far from consistent this season. He’s been held under 6 fantasy points in 3 straight games and has only averaged 12 fantasy points per game this season. Kayshon Boutte doesn’t see a ton of targets, but he leads the team in air yards share. He’s firmly in play for tournaments. Mack Hollins has a higher target share than Boutte and a higher air yards share than Diggs. He’s a sneaky value play on this slate. Demario Douglas will also mix in and run his routes from the slot.
Austin Hooper only ran a route on 27% of dropbacks last week, so it’ll take a touchdown for him to find his way into the optimal lineup on this slate. Hunter Henry has solid target and air yards shares this season. He might have the highest ceiling of any wideout on the Patriots. As far as the matchup against the Ravens goes, Baltimore has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to wide receivers, but they have allowed the 7th-fewest fantasy points to tight ends.
Over the last 2 games, TreVeyon Henderson has played on 48% of the snaps and has turned 30 touches into 248 yards from scrimmage and 2 touchdowns. During that same 2-game stretch, Rhamondre Stevenson has played on 63% of the snaps and has turned 24 touches into 157 yards from scrimmage. The Ravens have been decent against the run this season, but they have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to the position. I prefer Henderson over Stevenson, but they are both viable.
The Patriots’ defense has been solid this season, but they’ve mostly beaten up on bad offenses. I’m fine being underweight on them tonight against the Ravens. Kicker Andres Borregales has made 10 field goals over his last 4 games and is worth a look as a value play.
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Baltimore Ravens Preview
Lamar Jackson clearly isn’t 100%. He’s been a lock for 20+ fantasy points per game throughout his career, yet he’s only topped that mark once since Week 9. There are some signs of life, though, as he has put up 16 and 22 fantasy points in the last 2 games. We should take those results with a grain of salt, as they were against the Steelers and Bengals. He has a tougher draw on Sunday night against the Patriots, who are 11th in EPA allowed per dropback and 15th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Jackson is a strong play, but he’s not the lock-and-load MVP/CPT that he usually is on these Showdown slates.
Baltimore’s wideout usage (2025):
- Zay Flowers: 92% route participation, 27% target share, 33% air yards share
- Rashod Bateman: 74% route participation, 11% target share, 17% air yards share
- DeAndre Hopkins: 38% route participation, 8% target share, 15% air yards share
- Mark Andrews: 64% route participation, 16% target share, 16% air yards share
- Isaiah Likely: 52% route participation, 11% target share, 11% air yards share
Zay Flowers hasn’t had a very high ceiling this season, but he’s coming off a solid 2-game stretch where he caught 11-of-16 targets for 192 yards and a touchdown. He’s the clear WR1 in this offense, but the Ravens love to throw the ball to their tight ends. Rashod Bateman runs plenty of routes, but he’s only seen 11% of the team’s targets this season. He’s a touchdown-or-bust play against the Patriots, who are 15th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.
Mark Andrews is a tight end, but he’s the number two wideout in this offense. He has seen 16% of both the team’s targets and air yards. Isaiah Likely has gotten a little unlucky when it comes to touchdowns this season, but he’s seen at least 3 targets in 3 of his last 6 games. The matchup is a favorable one, as the Patriots are 24th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends this season. I don’t mind builds that completely skip over Baltimore’s wide receivers.
Derrick Henry averaged over 7 yards per carry in his 2 games against the Bengals, but the volume wasn’t there for whatever reason. December is typically the best time of year to target Henry in DFS, and Jackson still doesn’t look 100% healthy. If we get 20+ carries from Henry, he could easily break the slate with another big performance. The Patriots haven’t given up many touchdowns to running backs, but they are below the league average in PFF’s grades against the run and EPA against the run. If the Ravens get down early, this could be a great spot for Keaton Mitchell, who is cheap on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
The Ravens’ defense has improved in recent weeks, but I wouldn’t consider them a priority in cash games or small-field tournaments. These defenses should only be targeted in large-field tournaments. Kicker Tyler Loop has made at least 3 field goals in 4 of his last 6 games.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
This is a tough slate from a roster construction perspective. If we want to play the likes of Lamar Jackson, Drake Maye, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, and TreVeyon Henderson, we have to make some serious sacrifices. The value plays don’t feel super great, as we have Austin Hooper, Keaton Mitchell, Rasheen Ali, and the kickers popping as the best point-per-dollar options. Just remember, everyone is dealing with the same player pool and salary cap. Embrace the ugliness of your lineups.
Patriots vs. Ravens DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | QB | 20.71 | $10,600 | 1.95 | $12,200 | 1.70 |
| Drake Maye | NE | QB | 20.22 | $10,800 | 1.87 | $12,600 | 1.60 |
| Zay Flowers | BAL | WR | 17.41 | $9,000 | 1.93 | $10,200 | 1.71 |
| Derrick Henry | BAL | RB | 15.17 | $10,200 | 1.49 | $13,000 | 1.17 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | NE | RB | 12.91 | $9,600 | 1.34 | $11,400 | 1.13 |
| Stefon Diggs | NE | WR | 10.60 | $8,600 | 1.23 | $9,400 | 1.13 |
| Hunter Henry | NE | TE | 10.42 | $6,400 | 1.63 | $7,200 | 1.45 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | RB | 10.26 | $5,600 | 1.83 | $8,600 | 1.19 |
| Mark Andrews | BAL | TE | 9.90 | $5,400 | 1.83 | $8,200 | 1.21 |
| Mack Hollins | NE | WR | 9.68 | $4,800 | 2.02 | $7,800 | 1.24 |
| Kayshon Boutte | NE | WR | 8.30 | $7,200 | 1.15 | $7,400 | 1.12 |
| Tyler Loop | BAL | K | 7.97 | $5,000 | 1.59 | $6,400 | 1.25 |
| Andy Borregales | NE | K | 7.13 | $5,200 | 1.37 | $6,600 | 1.08 |
| Ravens | BAL | DST | 6.20 | $4,000 | 1.55 | $6,200 | 1.00 |
| Isaiah Likely | BAL | TE | 6.09 | $4,400 | 1.38 | $7,000 | 0.87 |
| Rashod Bateman | BAL | WR | 5.97 | $3,400 | 1.76 | $4,400 | 1.36 |
| Keaton Mitchell | BAL | RB | 5.47 | $3,000 | 1.82 | $4,000 | 1.37 |
| Patriots | NE | DST | 5.14 | $3,600 | 1.43 | $6,800 | 0.76 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | BAL | WR | 4.35 | $2,800 | 1.55 | $5,600 | 0.78 |
| Demario Douglas | NE | WR | 4.31 | $3,200 | 1.35 | $5,000 | 0.86 |
| Rasheen Ali | BAL | RB | 3.57 | $2,400 | 1.49 | $3,600 | 0.99 |
| Austin Hooper | NE | TE | 2.68 | $1,600 | 1.68 | $3,000 | 0.89 |
| Devontez Walker | BAL | WR | 1.37 | $2,000 | 0.69 | $1,800 | 0.76 |
| Charlie Kolar | BAL | TE | 1.12 | $600 | 1.87 | $1,600 | 0.70 |
Patriots vs. Ravens Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 22-23
Mark Andrews more than 33.5 receiving yards (1.83x) – Sleeper Fantasy
The Patriots have been tough defensively this season, but they have struggled to defend the tight end position. They have allowed the 9th-most receiving yards per game to the position. Mark Andrews has seen 16% of the team’s targets and 16% of the team’s air yards this season. He should be heavily involved in a very important game at home.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus