The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Ravens vs. Bills
For this Week 1 Sunday Night Football matchup on 9/7 featuring the Ravens vs. Bills, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Ravens vs. Bills
We are back at it for another Showdown slate. This could be one of the games of the year, as the Bills and Ravens square off in Buffalo. The Bills knocked off the Ravens in the playoffs, so Baltimore would certainly love to get a little revenge. These are two of the biggest favorites to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, so it should be one of the best games in Week 1. The Ravens are 1.5-point favorites, and the total for the game is set at 51.5 points.
Key Injuries
Isaiah Likely – Out
Patrick Ricard – Out
Gabe Davis – Out
Baltimore Ravens Preview
The Ravens come into the season as one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl (+650). They have a win total of 11.5 games, so we can expect them to be near the top of the AFC North once again.
I’ll obviously go into more detail, but you should be playing Lamar Jackson in every Showdown slate that he’s a part of this season. Not only that, but you should likely be trying to have more ownership than the field of Jackson at the multiplier spots. He’s long been the best rushing quarterback in the league, and now he’s quietly turned into one of the best passers as well. I knew good things were in store when the Ravens brought in Todd Monken as their offensive coordinator, and we’ve certainly seen that come to fruition for Jackson, who should be in the running for yet another MVP award. I know the Bills have had his number for the most part, but Jackson is a top play on this slate.
The Ravens return a similar wide receiver room as last season, as Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman should lead the way in 2-receiver sets. Flowers doesn’t have the best numbers against zone coverage (which is what the Bills like to play vs. the Ravens), and he struggles with consistency, but there is no denying his big-play ability. He’s not a priority for me on this slate, but his appeal in tournaments grows if the masses agree with me and he comes in with a low ownership projection.
Bateman ran extremely well with touchdowns (9) last season. That’s likely to regress this season, but he’s still a capable receiver in a talented offense. He’ll likely see at least a couple of downfield targets in this one. DeAndre Hopkins and Tylan Wallace will compete for snaps in 3-receiver sets. This is usually a moot point since they run so much 12 personnel, but Isaiah Likely has been ruled out of Sunday night’s game. This opens the door for Hopkins to have a bigger role than expected in his Ravens debut.
We continue to see the gap between Mark Andrews and Likely close each season. Many think Likely could overtake Andrews as the TE1 in Baltimore this season. However, we don’t have to worry about that in their opener, as Likely is out. Andrews has seen upticks in route participation and target share in games that Likely has missed, and this is an above-average matchup against the Bills. Charlie Kolar is a reasonable punt, as he’ll serve as the TE2 for the Ravens in this one.
Derrick Henry ran wild in 2 meetings against the Bills last season, turning 43 carries into 293 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns. While the matchup is fine on paper, the Ravens will be without their fullback (Patrick Ricard) and Likely. If we see them play in more 3-receiver sets, it will be tougher for Henry to get going downhill. There are still multiple paths for Henry to get there on this Showdown slate, but he’s not a big part of the passing game. One of my favorite value plays is Justice Hill. He’s the pass-catching back for Baltimore, and the running game could struggle a bit more than usual. In 2024, no team allowed more receiving yards to opposing backs than the Bills.
A fluke play can always turn into a defensive score, but I don’t want to pick on the Bills by targeting a defense against them. I’m fine excluding the Ravens’ defense on this slate. Justin Tucker is no longer a member of the Ravens. Tyler Loop will take over after getting drafted in the 6th round. I generally prefer kickers in games that I expect to be low scoring, but he’s not the worst option in his debut.
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Buffalo Bills Preview
I feel for Bills fans. I watched the documentary about the Cowboys and Jerry Jones on Netflix, and that only made me feel for Bills fans even more. Perhaps this will be the year that they finally break through and win the Super Bowl. They are one of the favorites to win the big dance (+700) and have a win total of 11.5 games.
Much like Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen is as close to a lock-button play as you are ever going to find for Showdown slates. He’s responsible for so much of the Bills’ offensive production that it’s hard to envision a scenario where he doesn’t find his way into the optimal lineup. He’s finished with the most or 2nd-most fantasy points at quarterback in each of the last 4 years. It’s worth noting that the Ravens were able to bottle him up in their 2 meetings last season, but Allen is still one of the top options at MVP and CPT.
Allen hasn’t had an elite weapon in the passing game since Stefon Diggs left, but he’s still one of the best passers in the league. He’s going to elevate his pass catchers each season, even if they aren’t the best wideouts in the league. With Mack Hollins and Amari Cooper gone, the wide receiver room includes the likes of Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Joshua Palmer, Curtis Samuel, and Elijah Moore. Shakir offers the highest floor of the bunch each week given how many routes he runs from the slot, but we do have to question his upside. Coleman will get more deep targets down the field and could have a breakout sophomore campaign.
Palmer has made some noise in camp and could be a sneaky option in his Buffalo debut. He flashed upside during his time with the Chargers and now gets to play alongside Allen. Nothing against Justin Herbert, but Allen tends to take more chances down the field. If his projected ownership is low, he’ll be one of my favorite targets for tournaments. Samuel and Moore are deep tournament fliers at best. Dalton Kincaid had a very disappointing 2024 campaign, but he was injured for a large part of the season. The problem is that we need his role to change this season. His snap share and route participation were both down last season. I’d rather chase the upside with Coleman or Palmer on this slate. Dawson Knox will continue to serve as the TE2 for Buffalo.
James Cook has been an explosive running back in both the running game and passing game. He got paid in the offseason, signing a 4-year, $48 million extension. While I’m a huge believer in his talent and in Buffalo’s offensive line, he’s unlikely to see more than around 50% of the snaps this season. He also ran extremely hot with touchdowns (18) last season after not being a big touchdown scorer in his first 3 seasons. With a difficult matchup against the Ravens (1st in yards per carry allowed in 2024) and competition for touches in the backfield (Ray Davis and Ty Johnson), I plan to be underweight on Cook in their opener.
The Bills are facing a team that runs the ball and tends to play with a lead. Now, if you want to make the case that the absences of Ricard and Likely will lead to more 3-receiver sets and therefore more passing plays, I suppose you could keep the Bills’ defense in your large-field tournament player pool. With Tyler Bass on IR, Matt Prater will be the kicker for Buffalo this week.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
I generally try to jam both starting quarterbacks into my Showdown lineups, but that’s especially the case for this Sunday Night Football game. I’m not only going to include Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen in every lineup, but one of the two will be in the multiplier (MVP/CPT) spot. Given the injuries and the matchup, I’m not particularly high on the Ravens’ rushing attack, at least not when it comes to Derrick Henry. I’ll take my chances with Justice Hill as a value play. For the Bills, I would rather chase the upside with some of their volatile receivers instead of targeting the tight ends.
Ravens vs. Bills DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | QB | 24.07 | $10,800 | 2.23 | $13,200 | 1.82 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | QB | 22.98 | $11,000 | 2.09 | $13,600 | 1.69 |
| Zay Flowers | BAL | WR | 16.00 | $8,200 | 1.95 | $10,000 | 1.60 |
| Derrick Henry | BAL | RB | 15.48 | $10,200 | 1.52 | $12,800 | 1.21 |
| James Cook | BUF | RB | 13.51 | $9,200 | 1.47 | $10,400 | 1.30 |
| Mark Andrews | BAL | TE | 11.52 | $7,000 | 1.65 | $8,600 | 1.34 |
| Khalil Shakir | BUF | WR | 11.30 | $7,600 | 1.49 | $9,400 | 1.20 |
| Dalton Kincaid | BUF | TE | 10.11 | $5,600 | 1.81 | $5,400 | 1.87 |
| Rashod Bateman | BAL | WR | 9.33 | $5,800 | 1.61 | $8,000 | 1.17 |
| Keon Coleman | BUF | WR | 8.67 | $6,600 | 1.31 | $4,800 | 1.81 |
| Tyler Bass | BUF | K | 7.75 | $4,800 | 1.61 | $7,200 | 1.08 |
| Josh Palmer | BUF | WR | 7.66 | $5,400 | 1.42 | $7,600 | 1.01 |
| Tyler Loop | BAL | K | 7.63 | $4,600 | 1.66 | $6,800 | 1.12 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | BAL | WR | 7.04 | $4,200 | 1.68 | $5,000 | 1.41 |
| Justice Hill | BAL | RB | 5.38 | $3,000 | 1.79 | $4,000 | 1.35 |
| Bills | BUF | DST | 5.30 | $5,000 | 1.06 | $6,200 | 0.85 |
| Ray Davis | BUF | RB | 4.78 | $3,200 | 1.49 | $3,400 | 1.41 |
| Ravens | BAL | DST | 4.54 | $4,400 | 1.03 | $6,400 | 0.71 |
| Ty Johnson | BUF | RB | 4.09 | $2,400 | 1.70 | $3,800 | 1.08 |
| Charlie Kolar | BAL | TE | 3.94 | $1,600 | 2.46 | $1,200 | 3.28 |
| Dawson Knox | BUF | TE | 3.79 | $3,600 | 1.05 | $3,000 | 1.26 |
| Curtis Samuel | BUF | WR | 3.65 | $2,800 | 1.30 | $2,800 | 1.30 |
| Keaton Mitchell | BAL | RB | 2.90 | $2,000 | 1.45 | $1,600 | 1.81 |
| Elijah Moore | BUF | WR | 2.48 | $3,400 | 0.73 | $4,400 | 0.56 |
| Tylan Wallace | BAL | WR | 1.36 | $1,200 | 1.13 | $2,000 | 0.68 |
Ravens vs. Bills Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 2-0
Justice Hill more than 18.5 receiving yards (1.81x) – Sleeper Fantasy
We are off to a nice start thanks to CeeDee Lamb and Travis Kelce in the first two evening games. As noted earlier, the injuries and potential game script set up well for Justice Hill to have a bigger role in this game. With Patrick Ricard and Isaiah Likely both out, the Ravens will be forced to play more 11 personnel and may not have as much success on the ground as usual. Additionally, the Bills allowed more receiving yards to running backs than any team in the NFL last season. In 2 games against the Bills last season, Hill had 8 receptions for 75 yards.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus