The NFL DFS Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Commanders vs. Packers
For this Week 2 Thursday Night Football matchup on 9/11 featuring the Commanders vs. Packers, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Commanders vs. Packers
While the Bills and Ravens didn’t get the memo, scoring was down across the league in Week 1. On the Sunday main slate, the under hit in 11 of the 12 games. The question is whether this has more to do with offenses being rusty or if defenses have caught up to offensive schemes around the league. Only time will tell, but it’s certainly something to keep an eye on early in the season.
We have another good Thursday Night Football game on tap this week, as the Commanders travel to Green Bay to take on the Packers. Both teams picked up wins in Week 1 and are teams that could easily contend for the division titles. Who knows, these teams could eventually meet in the playoffs. As for this game, it features a 3.5-point spread (with the Packers favored) and a 48.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Austin Ekeler – Questionable
Noah Brown – Questionable
Jayden Reed – Questionable
Dontayvion Wicks – Questionable
Washington Commanders Preview
The Commanders took care of business at home in Week 1, but they couldn’t pull away from the Giants (despite holding them to 231 yards and 6 points) until late in the game. I was a lot more impressed with their defense than their offense. With that said, a win is a win, and we are only 1 game into the season.
Jayden Daniels has been one of the most productive quarterbacks in fantasy football since entering the league. He picked up right where he left off in his rookie season with 20 fantasy points against the Giants in Week 1. It was impressive, given that he only scored 1 touchdown. He had 11 rushing attempts that he turned into 68 rushing yards. While the Packers might have one of the best defenses in the league, they are facing a much different quarterback than they saw in Week 1 (Jared Goff). Daniels is as close to a must-play as you are going to find on the slate, and he deserves consideration at MVP and CPT.
We shouldn’t put much stock into a 1-week sample, but Deebo Samuel led the team in targets (10) and receptions (7), but most of his catches were underneath. Terry McLaurin saw an uncharacteristically low target share (13%), but he still led the team in air yards and routes run. He should still be considered the WR1 in this offense. Their matchup against the Packers secondary isn’t anything to write home about, but they are firmly in play in a game where the Commanders are 3.5-point underdogs.
Noah Brown and Jaylin Lane will split snaps in 3-receiver sets, but they are deep tournament fliers at best on this Showdown slate. Zach Ertz continues to defy Father Time. After an excellent 2024 season, he ran a route on 70% of snaps in Week 1 and saw 5 targets. He’s never an exciting click in DFS, but the Packers did give up 6 receptions and 79 yards to Sam LaPorta last week. Ertz isn’t very cheap on this slate, so he should make for a nice tournament play at low ownership.
If Week 1 was any indication, teams are going to have a difficult time running on the Packers this season. They bottled up David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs (44 rushing yards combined), which is a feat very few teams were able to accomplish last season. To make matters worse, we have an old-fashioned timeshare in Washington’s backfield. Austin Ekeler led the way in snap share and ran a route on 46% of dropbacks, but Jacory Croskey-Merritt showed his explosiveness with 82 yards and a touchdown. I’m going to side with Ekeler in this spot since the game script could lead to more passing plays from the Commanders this week.
The Commanders defense looked great against the Giants, but RotoGrinders might be able to assemble a defense that could slow down the Giants, so we should take that performance with a grain of salt. Going on the road to face the Packers is a much tougher test. I won’t have much exposure to their defense in DFS. Kicker Matt Gay is a decent lineup filler, but he doesn’t have the upside that I am looking for in tournaments.
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Green Bay Packers Preview
The Packers had one of the most impressive wins in Week 1. They dominated the Lions, who have been one of the best teams in the league over the last couple of seasons. It’s not a 1-week season, but fans in Green Bay have to be happy with their football team at the moment.
While Jordan Love only attempted 22 passes in Week 1, the Packers were close to the league average in pass rate over expectation. Given the game script, it’s not surprising that they went with a run-heavy approach against the Lions. With a potential shootout on tap against the Commanders, we should see more dropbacks from Love. The problem with Love is always who to pair him with, but that’s not as big an issue on a Showdown slate. He’s not my favorite target at the multiplier positions, but he’ll be in all of my lineups.
Jayden Reed didn’t practice on Monday, but he was able to log a limited practice on Tuesday. He suffered a Jones fracture in training camp but is tentatively expected to play on Thursday. The biggest issue with the Packers (at least from our point of view) is how many wideouts see snaps and targets each week. Love only completed 16 passes in Week 1, yet 11 different players had at least 1 reception. Reed is technically the WR1 in Green Bay, but he’s going to be a lot more volatile than most top receivers. To emphasize my point, we have 5 receivers and 3 tight ends projected for fantasy points in this game.
Reed is a tough sell given his price point and 52% route rate in Week 1, but Romeo Doubs looks like a solid value play. He led the receivers in route participation (65%) and air yards share (37%). Matthew Golden could end up being the best receiver on the Packers, but I want to see it before paying a premium for him. Dontayvion Wicks and Malik Heath will also see snaps in this game. Heath is only $200 on DraftKings. Tucker Kraft might be the safest target amongst these pass catchers, as he played on 92% of the snaps and had strong target (18%) and air yards shares (15%) in Week 1. Luke Musgrave and John FitzPatrick are splitting the TE2 duties for Green Bay.
There are a couple of injuries (Aaron Banks and Zach Tom) to monitor on the offensive line heading into Thursday’s game. The health of the line does impact my interest in Josh Jacobs, who always seems to outperform expectations. He had 20 touches in the opener that he turned into 70 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. He doesn’t have much competition for touches, and the Packers are 3.5-point home favorites. Chris Brooks will spell Jacobs here and there and could be worth a look as a punt on DraftKings ($400).
While I have a ton of faith in Jayden Daniels, he’s still a young quarterback playing on the road against an elite defensive line. I certainly don’t mind throwing the Packers’ defense into my player pool for tournaments. Between the two kickers, I much prefer Brandon McManus to Matt Gay.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
As is the case with most Showdown slates, I am forcing both quarterbacks into all of my builds. When it comes to the multiplier position, I will be using a lot more Jayden Daniels than Jordan Love, given his rushing upside. The key to the slate is selecting the right wideouts from the Packers. On a per-dollar basis, I’ll side with Tucker Kraft and Romeo Doubs as my favorites. They led the team in routes run in Week 1. As far as defenses and kickers, I prefer the Packers’ side over the Commanders’ side.
Commanders vs. Packers DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | QB | 20.60 | $11,000 | 1.87 | $13,600 | 1.51 |
| Josh Jacobs | GB | RB | 18.38 | $10,600 | 1.73 | $12,400 | 1.48 |
| Jordan Love | GB | QB | 18.01 | $10,000 | 1.80 | $11,800 | 1.53 |
| Terry McLaurin | WAS | WR | 12.97 | $9,000 | 1.44 | $11,400 | 1.14 |
| Deebo Samuel | WAS | WR | 12.66 | $8,600 | 1.47 | $10,200 | 1.24 |
| Jayden Reed | GB | WR | 10.84 | $8,200 | 1.32 | $9,800 | 1.11 |
| Romeo Doubs | GB | WR | 9.84 | $4,000 | 2.46 | $4,200 | 2.34 |
| Austin Ekeler | WAS | RB | 9.65 | $6,800 | 1.42 | $7,800 | 1.24 |
| Tucker Kraft | GB | TE | 9.43 | $5,400 | 1.75 | $5,000 | 1.89 |
| Zach Ertz | WAS | TE | 8.91 | $5,800 | 1.54 | $5,200 | 1.71 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS | RB | 8.50 | $7,000 | 1.21 | $8,600 | 0.99 |
| Matthew Golden | GB | WR | 7.76 | $6,400 | 1.21 | $5,600 | 1.39 |
| Brandon McManus | GB | K | 7.15 | $5,000 | 1.43 | $7,000 | 1.02 |
| Matt Gay | WAS | K | 6.80 | $4,600 | 1.48 | $6,400 | 1.06 |
| Packers | GB | DST | 6.60 | $4,800 | 1.38 | $7,400 | 0.89 |
| Noah Brown | WAS | WR | 5.32 | $3,200 | 1.66 | $3,200 | 1.66 |
| Commanders | WAS | DST | 4.45 | $4,400 | 1.01 | $6,200 | 0.72 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | GB | WR | 4.28 | $3,600 | 1.19 | $3,600 | 1.19 |
| Chris Brooks | GB | RB | 3.46 | $400 | 8.65 | $1,200 | 2.88 |
| Jeremy McNichols | WAS | RB | 2.76 | $2,800 | 0.99 | $3,000 | 0.92 |
| Emanuel Wilson | GB | RB | 2.76 | $2,000 | 1.38 | $2,400 | 1.15 |
| Jaylin Lane | WAS | WR | 2.75 | $1,600 | 1.72 | $2,200 | 1.25 |
| Luke Musgrave | GB | TE | 2.59 | $2,400 | 1.08 | $1,800 | 1.44 |
| John Bates | WAS | TE | 1.83 | $600 | 3.05 | $1,200 | 1.53 |
| Savion Williams | GB | WR | 1.82 | $1,000 | 1.82 | $1,400 | 1.30 |
| Chris Moore | WAS | WR | 1.55 | $800 | 1.94 | $1,000 | 1.55 |
Commanders vs. Packers Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 2-2
Austin Ekeler more than 2.5 receptions (1.53x) – Sleeper Fantasy
Unfortunately, Cairo Santos couldn’t connect on a 50-yard field goal in the 2nd half of Monday night’s game, so we are now 2-2 in Pick’em on the season. For Thursday’s game, let’s go with Austin Ekeler more than 2.5 receptions. In Week 1, Ekeler saw 33 snaps and caught all 3 of his targets for 33 receiving yards. More importantly, he ran a route on 46% of dropbacks. I expect Jayden Daniels to have more than 30 attempts this week since they are 3.5-point underdogs on the road. It’s also worth noting that the Lions’ running backs combined for 14 receptions in Week 1 against the Packers.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus