The NFL DFS Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Dolphins vs. Bills
For this Week 3 Thursday Night Football matchup on 9/18 featuring the Dolphins vs. Bills, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Dolphins vs. Bills
Welcome back to another edition of the NFL Grind Down!
Could this be the year the Bills finally break through and win the Super Bowl? They are off to a fast start after an epic comeback against the Ravens and a dominant performance against the Jets. I’ve always been a Josh Allen fan, but seeing him on Hard Knocks and several golf channels on YouTube has made me an even bigger fan.
We could be in for an old-fashioned rout on Thursday night, as the Dolphins are reeling. There are locker room issues, coaches are on the hot seat, and trade rumors are plentiful right now in Miami. It’s hard to imagine them pulling off the upset Thursday night in Buffalo, but anything can happen in the NFL. This game features a 12.5-point spread and a 49.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Jaylen Waddle – Questionable
Darren Waller – Questionable
Malik Washington – Questionable
Jaylen Wright – Questionable
Miami Dolphins Preview
It’s not a fun time in Miami. The Heat traded away Jimmy Butler last season and were bounced in the NBA Play-In Tournament, the Marlins aren’t having a great season, and the Dolphins, well… they stink. They are 0-2 to start the season with the 2nd-worst point differential (-31) in the NFL. Mike McDaniel is on the hot seat, Tyreek Hill is involved in plenty of trade rumors, and Tua Tagovailoa has struggled out of the gate. It’s not going to get any easier in Thursday’s matchup against the Bills.
Tagovailoa looked much better in Week 2 against the Patriots. He threw for over 300 yards and had 2 touchdowns, but it still wasn’t enough for the team to pick up their first win of the season. He doesn’t offer much of any rushing upside at this stage of his career, which means he needs a big game through the air to find his way into optimal lineups. The Bills have been middling against the pass but have had one of the best pass rushes so far this season. This could pose problems for Tagovailoa, especially since he’s already playing without two of his offensive linemen. He’s viable since this is a Showdown slate, but I will look elsewhere at the multiplier positions (MVP/CPT).
Miami’s 2025 wideout usage:
- Tyreek Hill: 71% route participation, 21% target share, 43% air yards share
- Jaylen Waddle: 71% route participation, 18% target share, 21% air yards share
- Malik Washington: 64% route participation, 11% target share, 12% air yards share
The Dolphins are adamant that they aren’t looking to trade Hill, but he seems to want out, and the team is only a few more losses away from waiving the white flag this season. Even if they plan to trade him, you could argue that they’ll want to increase his value by peppering him with targets. He still offers upside, but the Bills have held him in check over the last few years. In his last 6 games against Buffalo, he’s only topped 12 fantasy points two times. Jaylen Waddle has a slightly better track record against the Bills, but he has only topped 100 receiving yards once in his last 16 games.
Malik Washington has run a route on 64% of dropbacks this season and has respectable target and air yards shares. He’s cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings, which allows you to load up on the stars on this slate. Darren Waller is unlikely to make his team debut this week, which means a lot more 11 personnel. Julian Hill and Tanner Conner will split the tight end duties, but we should also see increased snaps for Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Alec Ingold, and Dee Eskridge. I’ll side with Washington as my favorite value of the bunch.
De’Von Achane has played on 84% of snaps this season and has handled all but 5 of the running back touches for the Dolphins. However, Jaylen Wright could make his season debut on Thursday night. If he does, we could see Achane’s snap share come down a bit. I worry about his efficiency since Miami is struggling as a whole and missing offensive linemen, but the matchup is improved with Ed Oliver and Matt Milano both out for Buffalo. At the very least, we can expect Achane to be heavily involved in the passing game. Through the first 2 games of the season, he has caught 11 of 14 targets for 112 yards and 2 touchdowns.
The Dolphins are dead last in defensive EPA this season and have to face the Bills in Buffalo. Given the projected game script, I’m worried the Dolphins won’t be able to settle for field goals in this one. I am happy to fade the Dolphins defense and Riley Patterson on this slate.
NOTE: Used our new and improved SimLabs tool yet? Check out the video below by Dan Back, which will walk you through the premier tool in the industry. Get access to SimLabs and much more with an NFL Premium subscription!
Buffalo Bills Preview
Josh Allen had completely different fantasy outings in the first 2 games of the season. He had to lead the Bills to a late comeback against the Ravens in Week 1, so he had 46 pass attempts and 14 rush attempts (wow to both of those). Last week against the Jets, the team got off to a huge lead and leaned on its running game. Allen has the highest floor/ceiling of any player in this game, but this could be another game where the Bills dominate time of possession and aren’t forced to air it out much. I will note that the matchup is elite, as the Dolphins have given up massive fantasy outings to Daniel Jones and Drake Maye.
Buffalo’s 2025 wideout usage:
- Keon Coleman: 72% route participation, 19% target share, 30% air yards share
- Khalil Shakir: 72% route participation, 12% target share, 17% air yards share
- Joshua Palmer: 66% route participation, 16% target share, 28% air yards share
- Dalton Kincaid: 57% route participation, 14% target share, 12% air yards share
- Dawson Knox: 42% route participation, 8% target share, 4% air yards share
It’s hard to trust the box scores from either of the first 2 games for the Bills, given how those games played out. Instead, I want to rely on the underlying usage metrics. Keon Coleman could be in for a breakout sophomore campaign. He is a big reason why the Bills were able to beat the Ravens in Week 1, and I’m not holding his quiet performance in Week 2 against him. He currently leads the team in route participation, target share, and air yards share. He has major upside against a porous secondary that will be without their top cornerback (Storm Duck) and strong safety (Ifeatu Melifonwu).
Khalil Shakir runs 73% of his routes from the slot and doesn’t offer a ton of upside on a week-to-week basis. However, all it takes is a touchdown and 5+ catches for him to find his way into the optimal lineup on this Showdown slate. That’s certainly feasible against Miami. Palmer is a sneaky buy-low candidate, as his underlying usage metrics are solid. He’s seen 28% of the team’s air yards and has a 30+ yard catch in each of the first 2 games. Elijah Moore can safely be avoided for the time being. Dalton Kincaid caught the touchdown on the first drive of the game in Week 1 but hasn’t done much since. He continues to split time with Dawson Knox.
If the game plays out as expected (the Bills are 12.5-point home favorites), we should see a ton of rushing attempts for Buffalo’s backfield. James Cook isn’t used like a workhorse running back (54% snap share), but he still offers elite upside. He’s parlayed his 40 touches this season into 237 yards from scrimmage and 3 touchdowns. He runs behind an elite offensive line and is facing a defense that offers very little resistance against the run or the pass. This is a rare showdown slate where I will consider using multiple running backs from the same team. Ray Davis has a path to 10 touches if this game gets out of hand. I’ll save Ty Johnson for when I expect the game to be more competitive.
The Bills defense is firmly in play against a Dolphins team that is in utter turmoil. If Miami gets down early, they could combust. The Bills have one of the highest pressure rates in the league, and the Dolphins are missing offensive linemen. Kicker Matt Prater is also viable, as he could see multiple field goal opportunities.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
We’ve seen a lot of competitive primetime games so far this season, but the Bills could run away with Thursday night’s game. Buffalo onslaughts are firmly in play for this slate. You can easily stack the Bills and only use 1 player from the Dolphins (I prefer De’Von Achane or one of the wideouts in these builds). If the game does play out as expected, the Bills defense could be a strong option, and kicker Matt Prater could have several field goal attempts. If you want to go against the grain, stacking both passing attacks could be a great way to build upside into lineups at low ownership. If the game stays competitive and shoots out, that could be the build that takes down GPPs.
Dolphins vs. Bills DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | BUF | QB | 25.14 | $12,400 | 2.03 | $14,200 | 1.77 |
| De’Von Achane | MIA | RB | 18.11 | $10,800 | 1.68 | $12,200 | 1.48 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | QB | 18.09 | $9,400 | 1.92 | $10,800 | 1.68 |
| James Cook | BUF | RB | 14.77 | $10,600 | 1.39 | $11,600 | 1.27 |
| Tyreek Hill | MIA | WR | 13.18 | $9,800 | 1.34 | $11,000 | 1.20 |
| Jaylen Waddle | MIA | WR | 11.01 | $8,800 | 1.25 | $8,600 | 1.28 |
| Keon Coleman | BUF | WR | 9.81 | $6,800 | 1.44 | $8,000 | 1.23 |
| Matt Prater | BUF | K | 9.02 | $5,000 | 1.80 | $7,000 | 1.29 |
| Khalil Shakir | BUF | WR | 8.93 | $6,600 | 1.35 | $9,000 | 0.99 |
| Josh Palmer | BUF | WR | 8.65 | $4,800 | 1.80 | $5,400 | 1.60 |
| Bills | BUF | DST | 8.16 | $5,800 | 1.41 | $7,400 | 1.10 |
| Dalton Kincaid | BUF | TE | 7.72 | $5,400 | 1.43 | $6,600 | 1.17 |
| Malik Washington | MIA | WR | 5.67 | $3,200 | 1.77 | $2,800 | 2.03 |
| Ray Davis | BUF | RB | 4.89 | $2,600 | 1.88 | $3,200 | 1.53 |
| Ollie Gordon | MIA | RB | 4.18 | $2,200 | 1.90 | $3,600 | 1.16 |
| Ty Johnson | BUF | RB | 3.66 | $1,600 | 2.29 | $4,200 | 0.87 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | MIA | WR | 3.59 | $2,000 | 1.80 | $4,600 | 0.78 |
| Dawson Knox | BUF | TE | 3.19 | $2,400 | 1.33 | $2,400 | 1.33 |
| Tanner Conner | MIA | TE | 3.09 | $800 | 3.86 | $1,600 | 1.93 |
Dolphins vs. Bills Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 3-3
De’Von Achane more than 39.5 receiving yards (1.74x) – Sleeper Fantasy
We got back on track on Sunday night thanks to Adam Thielen. The goal is to be well above .500 with the pick’em predictions on the season. For Thursday, let’s roll with Achane for more than 39.5 receiving yards. In 2 games against the Bills last season, he had 58 and 69 receiving yards. Through the first 2 games this season, he’s already racked up 14 targets. This is a game where the Dolphins should be trailing, and the Bills allowed more receiving yards to running backs than any team in the NFL last season.
Use our Sleeper promo code RGBONUS for a $100 sign-up bonus.
Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus