The NFL DFS Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Falcons vs. Buccaneers
For this Week 15 Thursday Night Football matchup on 12/11 featuring the Falcons vs. Buccaneers, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Falcons vs. Buccaneers
We only have two more Showdown slates on Thursday night this season. In Week 17, Christmas falls on that Thursday, and we’ll have a 3-game slate. In Week 18, all 16 games will be on Sunday. Let’s make these last two Thursday night Showdown slates count. The Falcons have lost 2 games in a row and have been eliminated from playoff contention, while the Buccaneers are currently tied with the Panthers for the division lead. With all the motivation and a game at home against an unmotivated team, I’m surprised the spread is sitting at only 4.5 points. The total for the game is middling at 44.5 points.
Key Injuries (updated on Thursday)
Drake London – Out
Kyle Pitts – Questionable
Cade Otton – Doubtful
Mike Evans – Questionable
Jalen McMillan – Questionable
Atlanta Falcons Preview
It’s been ugly for Kirk Cousins in his spot starts this season. He’s made a total of 5 appearances where he has taken a significant number of dropbacks, and he has yet to score more than 15 fantasy points. The game script and matchup do line up well this week, as the Falcons are underdogs on the road against the Buccaneers, who are one of the best pass-funnel matchups in the league. However, Cousins has no rushing upside and limited passing upside. He’s far from a must on this slate.
Atlanta’s wideout usage (Weeks 12-14):
- Darnell Mooney: 81% route participation, 14% target share, 30% air-yards share
- David Sills: 73% route participation, 13% target share, 19% air-yards share
- Dylan Drummond: 47% route participation, 13% target share, 17% air-yards share
- Kyle Pitts: 84% route participation, 26% target share, 38% air-yards share
The usage numbers for these wideouts look good in the last 3 games without Drake London, but let’s remember that Cousins has averaged less than 200 passing yards per game during that stretch. Kyle Pitts has actually led the team in routes run, target share, and air-yards share with Cousins under center. As long as he’s active, he deserves consideration in all formats. The Buccaneers have been average (15th) at defending tight ends this season.
Darnell Mooney doesn’t have a high target share, but he does have a 30% air-yards share over the last 3 games and did catch a long touchdown against the Saints. David Sills and Dylan Drummond are both cheap and have both seen a 13% target share over the last 3 games. I’ll give a slight edge to Sills, as he’s been running a lot more routes. It’s a solid matchup on paper, as the Buccaneers are 20th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.
Bijan Robinson hasn’t been as consistent with Cousins under center, but that’s a symptom of a struggling offense more than anything on his part. I’m more concerned with a matchup against the Buccaneers, who are 4th in EPA against the run this season. His path to success here is likely through the air, as no team has allowed more receiving yards to running backs than Tampa Bay. Tyler Allgeier doesn’t have much of a role in the passing game, so I’m fine fading him in all formats.
The Falcons don’t have a great defense, and they are underdogs playing on the road. Their defense doesn’t offer much appeal on this slate. Kicker Zane Gonzalez has been solid in his stint with the Falcons. He’s viable if you think this game stays competitive.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers Preview
After a great start to the season, Baker Mayfield has been held to 12 or fewer fantasy points in 5 of the last 7 games. He’s had a few tough matchups during that stretch, but the lack of production is a tad surprising. He draws a nice bounce-back matchup at home against the Falcons, who are 12th in EPA allowed per dropback and 19th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Mayfield’s rushing upside puts him in play at MVP and CPT.
Tampa Bay’s wideout usage (2025):
- Mike Evans: 60% route participation, 21% target share, 33% air-yards share
- Emeka Egbuka: 85% route participation, 26% target share, 40% air-yards share
- Chris Godwin: 67% route participation, 18% target share, 23% air-yards share
The Buccaneers receiving room has struggled with injuries all season. While they are expected to be without Cade Otton in this game, there’s a chance they could get Mike Evans and/or Jalen McMillan back from injury. If both are out again, we can expect most of the targets to funnel to Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin. Their absence would also provide a boost for Tez Johnson and Sterling Shepard. Ultimately, we’ll have to wait and see who is active for Tampa. The Falcons are 21st in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.
With Otton expected out, Payne Durham will likely slide in as the TE1 for the Buccaneers. While the Falcons have allowed the 2nd-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season, Durham is extremely cheap, and this has been a valuable role in Tampa’s offense with Mayfield at the helm.
Since returning from injury, Bucky Irving has played on 54% and 49% of the snaps. It’s not clear RB1 territory, but he’s had 36 touches in those 2 games. He draws a nice matchup against the Falcons, who are 22nd in PFF’s grades against the run, 24th in EPA against the run, and 19th in fantasy points allowed to running backs. Rachaad White played on 49% of the snaps last week, but we could see more Sean Tucker this week if the Buccaneers are playing with a lead.
The Buccaneers defense is firmly in play on this slate, as Kirk Cousins has not looked good in his starts this season. If Tampa can build a lead early and force Atlanta to air it out, that’s the perfect recipe for fantasy production for the defense. Kicker Chase McLaughlin is viable in all formats, as he has made at least 2 field goals in 3 of the last 4 games.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
We are still waiting on some injuries, but we should have plenty of value available on this slate. This makes players like Baker Mayfield and Bijan Robinson that much more appealing. They were already close to must-plays in my eyes, and now you can easily fit both, even with one of them at MVP or CPT. We can also spend up on Bucky Irving and/or one of the expensive wideouts from the Buccaneers. I don’t mind taking some chances on Tampa’s defense, and both kickers are viable (max of 1 per lineup for me).
Falcons vs. Buccaneers DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | RB | 23.59 | $11,200 | 2.11 | $13,000 | 1.81 |
| Bucky Irving | TB | RB | 18.39 | $10,200 | 1.80 | $12,600 | 1.46 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | QB | 17.92 | $10,000 | 1.79 | $12,200 | 1.47 |
| Emeka Egbuka | TB | WR | 14.15 | $9,200 | 1.54 | $9,600 | 1.47 |
| Kirk Cousins | ATL | QB | 13.99 | $8,800 | 1.59 | $10,400 | 1.35 |
| Kyle Pitts | ATL | TE | 13.05 | $6,400 | 2.04 | $8,400 | 1.55 |
| Chris Godwin | TB | WR | 11.92 | $8,400 | 1.42 | $9,000 | 1.32 |
| Darnell Mooney | ATL | WR | 9.64 | $6,600 | 1.46 | $7,800 | 1.24 |
| Chase McLaughlin | TB | K | 7.84 | $5,000 | 1.57 | $6,600 | 1.19 |
| Tyler Allgeier | ATL | RB | 7.35 | $4,000 | 1.84 | $7,400 | 0.99 |
| Cade Otton | TB | TE | 7.08 | $4,400 | 1.61 | $3,600 | 1.97 |
| Zane Gonzalez | ATL | K | 6.78 | $4,600 | 1.47 | $6,200 | 1.09 |
| Rachaad White | TB | RB | 6.40 | $4,200 | 1.52 | $7,000 | 0.91 |
| David Sills | ATL | WR | 6.37 | $3,000 | 2.12 | $6,400 | 1.00 |
| Buccaneers | TB | DST | 6.33 | $5,400 | 1.17 | $6,800 | 0.93 |
| Dylan Drummond | ATL | WR | 5.67 | $2,000 | 2.84 | $4,800 | 1.18 |
| Falcons | ATL | DST | 4.82 | $3,400 | 1.42 | $6,000 | 0.80 |
| Sterling Shepard | TB | WR | 4.29 | $3,200 | 1.34 | $3,200 | 1.34 |
| Sean Tucker | TB | RB | 4.13 | $2,400 | 1.72 | $4,200 | 0.98 |
| Tez Johnson | TB | WR | 3.79 | $2,800 | 1.35 | $5,200 | 0.73 |
| Deven Thompkins | ATL | WR | 1.88 | $1,200 | 1.57 | $2,000 | 0.94 |
Falcons vs. Buccaneers Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 20-22
Bijan Robinson more than 36.5 receiving yards (1.78x) – Sleeper Fantasy
Robinson has had at least 39 receiving yards in 3 of his last 4 games and in 9 of 13 games this season. Even in a mediocre matchup and projected game script, this would be an appealing number. The fact that the Falcons are 4.5-point underdogs could lead to more dropbacks for Kirk Cousins and more targets for Robinson. The real selling point here is a matchup against the Buccaneers, who are very tough against the run but have allowed more receiving yards to running backs than any other team in the NFL this season.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus